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post #16 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 07:13 PM
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

Nadal should be 4th fav. Never reached a hard court grand slam final, generally is not at his best at the start of the year and Aus Open courts are faster since they changed from rebound ace. He only got to the semis this year because he had the easiest draw in history.

Roddick should be 100/1 instead of 33/1.

Gulbis is far too short at 50/1. More like a 200/1 shot.

I don't understand why Blake is double the price the likes of Gonzo, Gulbis, Ferrer, Berdych are. Of course none of them are going to win it, but Blake has as much or more chances than all of them.
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post #17 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 07:15 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by finishingmove View Post
just how do you figure that?
I guess I misread "their odds are too low" for "their implied chance of winning the tournament is too low".

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post #18 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 07:19 PM
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

Probably should be in gamblers lounge...

I'm no expert when it comes to outright bets...but I'd imagine that in the current climate (with Federer, Nadal and Djokovic dominating...and Murray, Del Potro etc immediately behind), it is even harder to hedge out a profit with these more long-winded bets (e.g. Blake, Gonzalez, Roddick etc). Sure, now and again one of them breaks through, but you wouldn't expect it to be common-place over the next few years. And where there are surprise SF'ists etc, it seems that those guys really ARE a surprise - e.g. Tsonga AO 2008, Schuettler and Safin Wimby 2008...wouldn't you be backing these fellows once in a blue moon?
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post #19 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 07:22 PM
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

I am surprised that Del pony is at 33-1 . Del pony has improved a lot and I think that he is ready to make a big push in the majors. Gasquet breaks my heart with his lack of fight. Gulbis needs a new head because he hits and hits without a clue about what he is doing, if he matures before the Oz open he could do something special.
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post #20 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 07:23 PM
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

What about Tipsy? I just hope he gets a hard draw so he doesn't go all silly.

ROGER & JANKO & LE MAGICIEN & Stan & A-Rod & Novak & Rafa
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post #21 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 07:23 PM
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by bjurra View Post
All players outside the top 3 have way too low odds, especially Tsonga, Gulbis, Robredo, Gasquet, Fat Dave and Davydenko.
because it's way too early, odds will rise when nobody bets on those players
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post #22 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 07:25 PM
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaap View Post
Nadal should be 4th fav. Never reached a hard court grand slam final, generally is not at his best at the start of the year and Aus Open courts are faster since they changed from rebound ace. He only got to the semis this year because he had the easiest draw in history.

Roddick should be 100/1 instead of 33/1.

Gulbis is far too short at 50/1. More like a 200/1 shot.

I don't understand why Blake is double the price the likes of Gonzo, Gulbis, Ferrer, Berdych are. Of course none of them are going to win it, but Blake has as much or more chances than all of them.
Yeah, I'd probably have Nadal 3rd (over Murray in 4th)...I think the AO would play a little better for him (than the US Open).

Roddick isn't GS/TMS winning material anymore, unless he gets a cakewalk...and even then he is now capable of stuffing it up.

For me, Gulbis could follow much in Blake's footsteps...capable of winning some big matches and having some fine runs, but lacking the stability to go unbeaten in 6-7 matches.

Also agree with your last point.
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post #23 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 07:26 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Burro View Post
Probably should be in gamblers lounge...
Probably. Till now I didn't know that such a place existed -- there seems to be a forum for everything here.

www.yokozunatennis.blogspot.com

Current sanyaku ranked players:
Yokozuna: Novak Djokovic (Dai-Y), Andy Murray, Roger Federer (Dai-Y), [Rafael Nadal is an inactive Dai-Y]
Ozeki: Stan Wawrinka
Sekiwake: none. Komusubi: Tomas Berdych (ex-O), Milos Raonic (ex-S), Kei Nishikori (ex-S), Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (ex-S), Lucas Pouille

Active ex-sanyaku-ranked players
Ozeki:
Cilic, Del Potro, Ferrer. Sekiwake: Baghdatis, Haas, Gasquet. Komusubi: Robredo, Verdasco, Melzer, Youzhny, Janowicz, Dimitrov, Gulbis, Kyrgios, Thiem.

Last edited by Henry Kaspar; 09-22-2008 at 07:32 PM.
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post #24 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 07:31 PM
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by El Burro View Post
Yeah, I'd probably have Nadal 3rd (over Murray in 4th)...I think the AO would play a little better for him (than the US Open).

Roddick isn't GS/TMS winning material anymore, unless he gets a cakewalk...and even then he is now capable of stuffing it up.

For me, Gulbis could follow much in Blake's footsteps...capable of winning some big matches and having some fine runs, but lacking the stability to go unbeaten in 6-7 matches.

Also agree with your last point.
With all due respect you can not compare Gulbis to Blake, Gulbis is way more talented he just needs to smarten up and learn how to change tactics in matches to deal with his opponents.
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post #25 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 07:36 PM
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

pretty much straightfoward odds for the top four players ranking wise. the rest of the players odds might change a bit as we approach next year
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post #26 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 07:37 PM
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

Nadal doesn't play well enough at the start of the year to ever win the AO

I'll put my money on Nole.
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post #27 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 07:37 PM
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by ExcaliburII View Post
They all have no chance at all.

Blake should be 1,000,000 to 1, biggest loser in Tennis History
agree
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post #28 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 08:05 PM
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

Quote:
Originally Posted by finishingmove View Post
well federer is the top favourite according to those odds.
Oh. I don't know how to read odds. I thought they were listed from most likely to least likely.
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post #29 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 08:53 PM
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

Odds seem accurate, I would lower Djoker's odds though, his recent form has been poor
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post #30 of 32 (permalink) Old 09-22-2008, 09:02 PM
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Re: Aussie Open 09 betting odds

I only see Federer and Nole as the favorites and should get the highest.
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