Nadal should be 4th fav. Never reached a hard court grand slam final, generally is not at his best at the start of the year and Aus Open courts are faster since they changed from rebound ace. He only got to the semis this year because he had the easiest draw in history.
Roddick should be 100/1 instead of 33/1.
Gulbis is far too short at 50/1. More like a 200/1 shot.
I don't understand why Blake is double the price the likes of Gonzo, Gulbis, Ferrer, Berdych are. Of course none of them are going to win it, but Blake has as much or more chances than all of them.
Yeah, I'd probably have Nadal 3rd (over Murray in 4th)...I think the AO would play a little better for him (than the US Open).
Roddick isn't GS/TMS winning material anymore, unless he gets a cakewalk...and even then he is now capable of stuffing it up.
For me, Gulbis could follow much in Blake's footsteps...capable of winning some big matches and having some fine runs, but lacking the stability to go unbeaten in 6-7 matches.
Also agree with your last point.