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Stable Unit's ''stable'' 2008

6K views 68 replies 6 participants last post by  stable unit 
#1 ·
Hi there guys,

I've been very busy over early january, as some of you may know I built up quite a nice profit last year. Unfortunately this year staking nonsense such as 10 units on Monaco to beat Kohlschreiber and 15 units on Santoro to beat Tursunov have caused stupidity to follow.

Im looking forward to keeping this thread running over the year, and any profit would obviously be good. If i've got time to post it on here I know i should have looked into it sufficiently at least. That's the main reason for the thread, feel free to follow me or fade me after a winning streak, whatever you choose let's see how it goes.

Every play posted on here I have backed.
Stakes: 1-5 units
Record: Updated in signature

:wavey:
 
#3 ·
Tsonga over Nadal
0.7 units to win 2 units

No real need to write this one up, many people have commented on this. I can see value in this line with a confident JWT.

Djokovic over Federer
0.76 units to win 2 units

I've been to lucky enough to have seen the last four encounters, imho the gap has sufficiently closed as Nole has gained confidence. He will have no doubt took a lot from the US Open final, and i like his chances friday morning.
 
#8 · (Edited)
Over 38.5 games Federer/Djokovic (bet365, 1.83)
1.2 units to win 1 unit

As much as I see value in the price of Djokovic, I am pretty sure this isn't going to be over in a straight sets Djoko win. Therefore this bet makes sense, it's almost an insurance bet on the match win market. Both guys unbeaten in 2008, in great form, this should be a great tussle!
W
W
L

Nole stepped up to the plate big time after choking a couple of sets away in NY last year, he's Federer's worst nightmare. A great mover, powerful, gets so many balls back and the depth at which he hits tennis balls is insane.

Thanks for the words Andre, Jez and Jig Jag
 
#5 ·
Over 38.5 games Federer/Djokovic (bet365, 1.83)
1.2 units to win 1 unit

As much as I see value in the price of Djokovic, I am pretty sure this isn't going to be over in a straight sets Djoko win. Therefore this bet makes sense, it's almost an insurance bet on the match win market. Both guys unbeaten in 2008, in great form, this should be a great tussle!
 
#10 ·
Sorry about this late write-up:

Koubek over Blake (BlueSq last night, 2)

1 unit to win 1 unit

This is obviously a fairly popular choice, even though Blake has an outstanding record against lefties. Although not too many of those victories against lefties has been on the red clay of Europe. Whilst Blake has a bunty like backhand that can be used fairly effectively on a faster surface (the ball can come off nicely for Blake), I doubt that over 5 sets in Austria he will be able to penetrate consistently off that wing. Whether i'd take odds of 1.8 downwards im not so sure, especially with a mentally weak Koubek and a fairly in form Blake. (so sorry once again about late post). Generally Koubek has had a promising start to the year and at home confidence and fight won't be an issue.

GL all
:wavey:

Roddick in a battle over there as this is written 1 set all, not sure how this works in regards to pressure in 2nd leg if Melzer pulls this off.
 
#11 ·
Horna over Almagro (Betfair, 2.44)
0.73 units to win 1 unit

A few considerations here, firstly Horna is playing at home, has a great record in the davis cup, is loved in Peru and so noise will be a plenty over in Lima. When Almagro last beat Horna on the dirt was back in Bastad where Almagro was playing great and he went on to reach the final. Nobody coud put his form at that level right now with a severe lack of wins recently (2 wins from previous 5 tournaments). The spaniard is not the most stable of characters and im hoping he'll get severely tested tonight.

GL
:wavey:
 
#13 ·
Odesnik over GGL (2.52)
0.68 units to win 1 unit

Obviously pretty tough to call today's matches, this is my only bet as I see a little bit of value. GGL should possibly be marginal favourite as he's the so called flashier player and has had success here in the past. Although he could be due a down run now, after success over the last few months. He's such a streaky player and can hit UE after UE at times, tricky match for him here against a guy that lives on the US hardcourts.
 
#16 · (Edited)
No time today: all to win 1 unit

Oscar Hernandez 2.20 (fatigue major role)
Nico Massu 3.05 (Almagro form, headcase)
Sergio Roitman 2.66 (Calleri time bomb)
Peter Luczak 2.10 (like the power for a dog)

Gremelmayr 3.4 (big price for two closely fought battles, hard to beat someone 3 times in a short span. Just ask the Cowboys about that.
 
#19 ·
2 plays for me today:

Baghdatis over Youzhny @1.96
1.05 units to win 1 unit

This is a dangerous play considering Youzhny form generally over the past 12 months, nevermind this calendar year. However, Baggy has been pretty good this year; and on in indoor court quite simply he is the better player imo. Betting is all about opinions, and i rate Baggy more in this spot.

Volandri over Almagro @2.6

0.65 units to win 1 unit

It can be very tempting to jump on the Almagro train here, but countless times he has cruised through rounds all produce an error ridden display next. At these odds im happy take a seasoned clay court performer in Pipo, the BH exchanges in this match will be crucial. It is in Almagro's hands like most players versus Volandri though.

GL all
 
#21 ·
Murray over Ancic @1.62
1.75 units to win 1 unit

On the face it this seems a short price, although imo Murray is a worthy favourite and should be a little shorter. He has shown time and time again that he is able to neutralise powerful serves, id expect him to get a fair share of 1st serves back from Ancic and be superior from the back of the court once the ball is in play. He can force Ancic to hit the extra ball and create errors or bring Ancic in and pass off both sides as he did today against PHM (albeit not a superior net player). Furthermore, Ancic never appears to be fully comfortable in finals and here's hoping his 1st serve % continues to drop as we have witnessed this week. Perhaps fatigue of his first tournament back is taking its toll.

GL
 
#23 · (Edited)
I'll be quite busy early in the week. so wanted to get some round 1 matches up.

Mahut over Robredo @2.5 (Bet365 sunday night)
0.67 units to win 1 unit

I think this is going to be on a lot of people's cards, Robredo does have the game style to trouble Mahut giving that he is capable off both wings to pass Mahut and has a steady baseline game. However Robredo hasn't shown any confidence/form this year whatsoever, and coming from clay in Peru this wont be an easy task. Furthermore Tommy lost to the attacking game of Mardy Fish at the Oz Open, and has struggled against attacking players generally over the last 6 months. A price of 2.5 is generous and i think worth a play considering Mahut came through well
last week and looked in good touch.

Lopez over Fish @2.1
0.91 units to win 1 unit

Simon comes into this match 3-10 against his last 13 left handed opponents, indicating he is not all that comfortable against lefties. Lopez has a dominating serve and should be able to pick up his fair share of cheap points, whilst he should be in Simon's service games throughout. Reports suggest this isn't one of the fastest indoor surfaces, but i like that Lopez has doubles action on Monday to gim him a feel for the surface.
He played Karlovic tough last week, and i like him in this spot as underdog.

Ljubicic over Berdych @2.52 (Betfair)
0.66 units to win 1 unit

Ljubicic clearly loves this surface here in Rotterdam and even though Berdych comes in here as favourite considering how there respective careers have altered over the last 12 months, this could easily see a tie-break or two; and i would never feel comfortabe taking Berdych in a round 1 match at such short odds. Hopefully Ljubicic has found some confidence after winning a challenger last week, a bit like how ToJo did at the back end of last year and i see this one as closer.
 
#26 ·
#24 · (Edited)
Young over Lee @2.4
0.71 units to win 1 unit

Young comes into this match on a 2 match skid that has seen him facing off against big servers, which on the face of things have seemed to overpower him (more so Berrer at OZ Open). Baseline exchanges will take priority here though, and in a rowdy night session i like Young's chances. As to there repective H2H, Lee was in great form in the middle of the US hardcourt swing whilst he comes in here off a 3-5 2008 record posting wins over Mirnyi, Guccione and Mayer none of which have the class of Young from the back.

Calleri over Monaco @2.5 (one ball book)
0.67 units to win 1 unit

Both Argentines have had some success here in the past, semi and a final for Calleri with Monaco actually winning the event last year. Notably though, Pico pulled out of Vina del Mar with a second degree sprain. With points to defend and this being his home country im speculating he'd want to play at all costs. 100% fit Monaco i'd expect to wear down Calleri and keeping a good length allow Calleri to beat himself. However with Calleri being the dog here, and with the injury return perhaps Monaco will leave a few extra balls short and we all know Agustin will jump on them with his powerful groundies. H2H Calleri leads 3-1 so clearly his power troubles Monaco, worth a go at this price imo.

GL all
 
#25 ·
Hernandez over Almagro 2.62(one ball book)
0.61 units to win 1 unit

The price has come in from what i'd have hoped for, but i get the feeling that this is going to be a very tough match for Almagro. He must be running low on stamina/mental power now, he got through his 1st round tie after the flight from Brazil. To come back the next day though when the sun will be at its highest is a tough ask. Especially against a tough fellow countymen who will be content to soak up the pressure time and time again to work the point. If Hernandez plays well, id be very impressed if Almagro beats Hernandez comfortably today. Even a fully fit Almagro i wouldn't feel comfortable taking him today, as im yet to trust him as a heavy favourite against a good defender.
 
#27 · (Edited)
Seppi over Soderling @3.4
0.42 units to win 1 unit

Soderling is the better indoor player and rightfully favouurite here, but not by so much that 1.4 is justified on him. Seppi has been playing great tennis indoors recently, and sometimes Soderling can be fairly wooden in play leaking UE. I think this match will be close with Seppi being more consistent from the baseline attempting to neutralise Soderling' power.

Gabashvili over Simon @3.05

0.48 units to win 1 unit

Opposote reasoning to other match, the match will lie with the power of Gabashvili. He to has been consistent for a couple of weeks now coming through qualifying and beating JCF and Mahut to get to the quarters. Simon has the capability to grind TG down over long rallies, but again i think value at these odds. There last two meetings have been on clay so i like TG chances more today with the extra court speed.
 
#30 ·
Simon over Soderling @3
0.5 units to win 1 unit

Simon for me, playing great tennis and this should be much closer than the odds suggest. Like Simon to do what Seppi couldn't and neutralize Soder's power from the baseline and work the point. Seppi's body language was awful yesterday, this should be good match.
 
#35 ·
Hernandez over Acasuso @2.5
0.66 units to win 1 unit

As i mentioned last week, the deep standing defensive of play of Oscar can be tricky to penetrate on clay if a little fatigued or not 100% focused. He took Almagro to 3 sets last week, and created numerous break point chances he could not convert. I like his chances today against Chucho who can sometimes be erratic himself at the best of times and coming off his finals loss.

Pashanski over Nalbandian @5

0.25 units to win 1 unit

This is a pure Nalbandian fade that maybe i will regret in the morning, but at these odds it is worth a try imo. David is just 1-3 at this event and one would think he'd be more that happy with last week's achievements to worry about this week. ;) He's struglled before in little tournaments so why not today.

Thanks Jig Jag :yeah:
 
#37 ·
Haase over Simon @2.28
0.78 units to win 1 unit

Simon has played well in the early part of this year, and it's took a world class baseliner to beat him in 2008........Berdych, Nadal, PHM and Soderling. However they all have one thing in common and thats power. This is a good price considering Haase has the tools on a good to day to execute an agressive game and there is no reason to think that he can't, coming off a good week in Rotterdam and a convincing 1st round win.
 
#38 ·
Volandri over Almagro @2.88
0.53 units to win 1 unit

The H2H is very tight, even when they played lat time Pipo had his fair share of bp chances and if he could have been more clutch on them it could have been a different story. Pipo has played good tennis in South America and this should be a close one. Why dont you get ready for Dubai Nicolas and take a break?

Canas over Acasuso @1.9

1.1 units to win 1 unit

Fatigue from BA last week, and even without factoring this in Canas is the tougher mentally. His game is a frustrating one for the likes of Chucho as he can get so many balls back and create errors. Acasuso has lost the last two meeting with Ferrer, lost the only match with Robredo on clay and i see this match following a similar trend.
 
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