Mr Intensity: £1000 to ....... - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-28-2007, 01:01 PM Thread Starter
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Thumbs up Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

Wow, can't believe I haven't posted on here since September 2004! I'm glad to be back, really enjoy reading you guys posts in Gamblers Lounge, and hopefully I'll be able to contribute something useful in the future. Anyway, here is the reason for me starting this thread: I lost quite heavily during all the "fixed" tennis matches a few weeks ago, my bankroll has literally been torn to shreds. So I'm trying to rebuild. I've decided to leave Betfair for a while, as I just cannot believe a decent in-play price I see on there! So, I'm going back to a bookie, and the dreaded multiple bets as this is how I build my 'roll up in the first place. I'm using the next 2 weeks to see how far I can get (basically the US Open). My staking will be aggressive and the bets will sometimes be a bit crazy! I'll mostly be doing tennis, but sometimes other things as well, such as MLB and Football. I'll be putting my analysis of games in the appropriate forums as well as in this thread. My initial bank will be £1000 and I'll see how far I can get!

Thanks for reading.

Mr I.
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post #2 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-28-2007, 01:38 PM
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Re: Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

good luck, i hope you can make up more than you lost few weeks ago

http://www.menstennisforums.com/show...&postcount=378

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Originally Posted by FormerRafaFan View Post
That will be the last victory of Rafa for quite some time.. With his joke mentality and pathetic game, I hope the disgusting player loses every single match next season. He's disgraceful. He should just retire. He's a joke.
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(10) Corey Feldman vs. (12) scarecrows
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post #3 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-28-2007, 03:14 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

Thanks scarecrows. Onto the first bet...

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

STARACE v Gulbis @ 2.1
CLEMENT v Karlovic @ 2.25
SELA v Lapentti @ 1.53
GRANVILLE v Sanchez @ 1.72


I really like the look of Starace in this game. He comes in after some good form on clay and a pretty tight loss to ToJo in New Haven last week. I think that loss is acceptable, as it was his first hard court match for a while (ignoring the Davis Cup against a guy ranked 1132) and Johansson had just come off a good Challenger win. He's shown glimpses of decent hard court form in the past and now around his career high rank and first time seeded at a slam, I think he'll put in a solid performance.

Gulbis is a strange one at the moment I feel. He had a very good first few months of the year at challenger level, but has failed to step up to ATP level. He is 1-11 in ATP and Grand Slams this year (only win against an unfit Henman at the French) and despite some close matches and decent performances he continually fails to get the W. An anomoly seems to be in Davis Cup in July in Finland where he beat Nieminen in 4 sets which is a great result, and is a slight concern here, as I really cannot explain it. Anyway, today I think Starace is solid enough to extend the points and I expect a very high UE count for the Latvian.

Whichever way I look at it, Gulbis has not done enough to be considered favourite in this game.


Clement v Karlovic: H2H is 2-2 and from those games we can all see how this matchup is going to play out. My reasons for this bet are mainly against Karlovic: I've heard he was fatigued and had a bit of an injury last week against Fish, and we've seen so far guys who did well there are struggling here. Secondly his slam record is pretty poor, going 11-17 in the main draw and even in the last 2 years it is declining, as he is 2-7 in the past 2 years albeit with some pretty tough draws. Clement has had some tough draws in the US this summer, losing to T Johansson (he was injured, just turned up as he was defending title), Roddick, Berdych and Blake. So although his W-L lately isn't great I don't see that as a big indication of poor form. We've all seen what he can do on the Karlovic serve in the past meeting, and over 5 sets I definately see him creating enough chances and getting the job done. Very nice price here, I have no reason for Clement being over 2.00.


Since bursting onto the scene in Australia this year, Sela has been making some solid progress. He did well in qualifying here, and I expect him to take full advantage of this nice first round draw. He seems to have a solid tennis brain, and should be able to play an effective match here. Lapentti has been drifting along playing some average stuff lately, and everytime I've been able to watch him play his serving has been woeful. I don't really think he has the desire to play on the hard courts anymore, and should be happy just picking up a cheque. Sela has already shown his desire coming through qualifying, and that is a big plus when looking at this match up. Also doubts over Lapentti's fitness (even though Will Hill void on a retirement) make me very confident playing Sela. 1.53 is a solid price, but I wouldn't be taking it at 1.44 or under.


Interesting little match up between Granville and Sanchez here. Sanchez has had some great results in here last 2 small tournaments and did very well qualifying here. However, this is one occasion where I will oppose the qualifier. Sanchez is 0-2 against girls in the top 100, and was 0-3 last year. Also, she's only had one match in a Grand Slam main draw (first round loss at the French this year) so clearly this is a massive step up. Granville has struggled a little of late, but she had an excellent Wimbledon and early US hardcourt run. She's far more experienced in this type of environment and at home I fully expect her to win. I thought the price would be closer to 1.50 so I'll definately play at this price.




I'll take a look at the later matches once I've seen how these have started.
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post #4 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-28-2007, 03:17 PM
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Re: Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

Hey, good luck and welcome again
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post #5 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-28-2007, 03:19 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

Thanks Skywalker. Almost forgot:


Starting Bank: £1000
Current Bank: £800
Selections W/L: 0/0
Total Staked: £200
Yield: 0%
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post #6 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-28-2007, 05:04 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

£40 Fourfolds from 5, William Hill

GALLOVITS v Bremond @ 1.83
SANTORO v Pavel @ 1.36
PAVEL v Meffert @ 1.36
MALISSE v Pless @ 1.57
SERRA v Eschauer @ 1.44



I donít know much about Gallovits, but Iím still willing to play this game. From what Iíve just looked up, she seems to be mainly a clay courter, which probably will be a good thing here as she can extend the points and just wait for Bremond to miss (miss by a long way lol). Sheís had some good wins this year, she is 7-9 against top 100 opponents which isnít bad and she has had a lot of wins this year (35-19 record). This is the opposite of Bremond, who simply cannot put any wins together and has a shocking 6-21 record. Sheís a player who really relies on timing the ball well, and simply, she isnít doing it this year. This is virtually a case of opposing Bremond at any cost, and after a little research on her opponent Iím willing to do so at this price. Gallovits should definitely be favourite, Iíd put her at something like 1.70.


Santoro hasnít had much action lately, having problems with heat illness and stomach ache, but these are things that go away quite quickly and I think heíll be fully prepared for this. He has a decent US Open record lately despite some shocking draws Ė Federer twice, Verdasco, Ljubicic and Stepanek all early in the past few years. Heís been playing as well as ever this year and in any kind of shape I see no way heís losing this one. Montanes simply doesnít have any pedigree on hard courts and is one to oppose against virtually anyone in the draw. Iím not concerned about him running Andreev very close last week, I see that as more of a negative for Andreev who is very capable of putting in a shocking performance. Montanes is 1-5 at the US and 3-17 in Slams excluding the French and I just really really donít see him winning this one. Santoro should be 1.25 IMO.

Battle of two qualifiers, but Pavel definitely has the edge. I think Pav has been playing really well the past few months, just getting some pretty harsh draws and he should be clinical against this type of opponent. He has a solid record here reaching the 4th round a couple of times and has way more experience in best of 5 encounters. Meffert plays the vast majority of his tennis in Europe, and despite doing well to qualify here I canít favour him at all. He struggles to keep an even record on hard courts and a career high ranking of 208 shows the sort of level he operates. This is his first time in a Grand Slam main draw and thereís just such a gulf in every respect between these two IMO there is only one outcome. Pavel should be around 1.25.

Tricky match to get involved in, but Iím willing at this price. Malisse was stunning at the beginning of the year and was looking more mature which could have led to him having an awesome year. However, he still has a great and this is a great place to start. Heís taken the return to the tour pretty slowly and I canít see him returning until he is 100% (unlike Murray). This is a great chance for him to get some match fitness and some confidence against a player who is really struggling. Since winning a Challenger in March Pless is 4-14 and since Wimbledon his only win is against a guy ranked 1507! He actually doesnít have a bad US Open record, going 5-5 in the main draw, however, in this spot I just canít see him having the confidence to take on Malisse. X-Man shouldnít be more than 1.50.

I really like this match up for Serra, but Iím not really sure why! Heís failed in qualifying in his last two tournaments and comes in to this one with really limited form but I still like him today. Maybe itís more a fade of Eschauer? We all remember his big week in Amersfoort but heís 0-2 since then and hasnít played since the end of July. Also heís seems to avoid hard courts, his last outing on indoor hard coming in Wroclaw which he won but he hasnít played on outdoor hard since November 2005 where he lost first round in Puebla and before that it was failing to qualify for the 2004 Australian Open!! Surely that lack of warm up tournaments and any tournaments on hard courts will be a factor here. I feel Serra should control this match, both with his serve and his groundstrokes, and should come through comfortably. For me, Serra should be around 1.35.


Starting Bank: £1000
Current Bank: £600
Selections W/L: 0/0
Total Staked: £400
Yield: 0%
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post #7 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-28-2007, 08:39 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

In play

£200 VAKULENKO v Hantuchova @ 2.25 William Hill

Set up, and Hantuchova is playing awful. Anything over evens is good.
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post #8 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-28-2007, 09:57 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

MLB:

£200 CINCINATTI @ Pittsburgh Game 1 @ 2.50 William Hill

Just reading another forum and a couple of guys I respect like this play. Also Cincinatti are on a really good run. Ramirez is a concern, but the Cinci bats are hot and maybe they can win a slugfest.
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post #9 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-28-2007, 10:11 PM
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Re: Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

good luck buddy hope it turns out good for you in the end
post #10 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-28-2007, 10:47 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

Thanks BG. It's been a prett good start today. I'll update the results in the morning. I've got another MLB bet coming up!
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post #11 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-28-2007, 10:52 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

MLB:

£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

ATLANTA -1.5 @ Florida @ 1.83
Minnesota @ CLEVELAND -1.5 @ 2.4
NY METS -1.5 @ Philidelphia @ 2.25
ARIZONA -1.5 @ San Diego @ 2.1


Braves were in a bit of a funk before last night going 2-5 but the bets got hot last night as they pounded to a 13-2 win. With Smoltz on the mound I fully expect them to carry that momentum and have another comfortable victory. Florida have a stinking 27-39 home record and have been terrible in the last month. Smoltz has been very solid lately, going 8 innings in his last two starts, giving away 2 runs in each. VandenHurk has been very up and down this season, and is actually coming off a good starts, giving away 1 run in 5 innings in an 11-3 win at St Louis. But at home is where his problems have been, going 1-3 with a 7.07 ERA. Any way I look at this, I see Atlanta taking it.


Cleveland are usually a good bet at home where theyíve won 60% of there games this season. I think this series is good for a Cleveland sweep and I think theyíll have few problems tonight. Minnesota are coming off a very good 4 game sweep of Baltimore on the road but they were brought back down last night in Cleveland 8-3 and I see this definitely as a let down series. Cleveland should be happy to be at home after a solid 4-2 road trip and they can continue that momentum in this series. Iím not really a fan of Bosner, he has an ERA over 5 on grass and struggles to get much run support. He managed a decent outing in Baltimore and finally got a W but I think heíll struggle for two in a row. Westbrook has been very solid since coming back from injury, going at least 6 innings in his 12 starts. Heís only given away more than 1 run in 1 of his last 5 starts, and despite only going 2-4 at home he should get the W tonight.


Mets are going well on the road, 9-3 in there last 12 games. Coming off an average couple of home series and a 9-2 loss last night, they need to get something going here. Philies are now 3-4 in this home stretched and have hit over .400 in the last 2 games which I canít see continuing into this game. I fancy a letdown in this game giving the Mets a chance in this series. Eaton has struggled a bit this season, and this being his first start off the DL I think heís going to struggle. Mets shouldnít give up too much, with Glavine going 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA against the Philies this season.


Padres sent there ace to the mound last night and now itís the turn of Arizona. This match up is about the starting pitchers, and Webb has been excellent this season and especially of late. Webbs stats are just unreal, he keeps going deep into games and isnít giving up a thing. Germano has been solid this season, but his problems have been at home where he is 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA. I just see Arizona taking this down in a pretty low scoring contest.
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post #12 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-29-2007, 12:32 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

In play

£200 LINO v Cho @ 4.00 William Hill

Cho just gone 3-0 in the third but I still think Lino has a chance. She's played pretty well and can get into every Cho service game. Injury doubts over Cho at the moment and may have a choke in her first match for 18 months.
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post #13 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-29-2007, 12:57 AM
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Re: Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

Hey, good luck! For now it looks very promising! All the best

Comedy is a drama that happens to other people

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post #14 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-29-2007, 10:01 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

Hey thanks Nathaliia. Quite a good first day, a bit too up and down for my liking, but after going 0-5 in MLB I've very happy to have made a profit!! Still annoyed I included Starace in a bet yesterday without properly checking the OOP, but I'll be a lot happier if he can take care of the business today!

£40 Fourfolds from 5, William Hill

GALLOVITS v Bremond @ 1.83 LOST
SANTORO v Pavel @ 1.36 WON
PAVEL v Meffert @ 1.36 WON
MALISSE v Pless @ 1.57 WON
SERRA v Eschauer @ 1.44 WON

Returned: £168.83


£200 VAKULENKO v Hantuchova @ 2.25 William Hill WON Returned: £450


£200 CINCINATTI @ Pittsburgh Game 1 @ 2.50 William Hill LOST Returned: £0


£50 Trebles from 4, William Hill

ATLANTA -1.5 @ Florida @ 1.83 LOST
Minnesota @ CLEVELAND -1.5 @ 2.4 LOST
NY METS -1.5 @ Philidelphia @ 2.25 LOST
ARIZONA -1.5 @ San Diego @ 2.1 LOST

Returned: £0


£200 LINO v Cho @ 4.00 William Hill WON Returned: £800


Starting Bank: £1000
Current Bank: £1218.83
Selections W/L: 6/6
Total Staked: £1000
Yield: 21.88%



I've haven't included the first bet which included Starace which is being played today. But got the first 3 right so guaranteed a return of around £290 and if he wins it'll be over £1200!
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post #15 of 43 (permalink) Old 08-29-2007, 10:23 AM
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Re: Mr Intensity: £1000 to .......

I have no idea how it works on Will Hill as I'm a betfair child nevertheless, but how does Potito affect your won matches on Clement, Sela and Granville?

I'm on Potito as well today and have just finished writing an article about him, where I was kinda spiteful towards his abilities, hopefully he won't be a jerk in return.

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