This is a good draw for Ivan. Although he has final points to defend, semis this year would be good too. He wouldnt lost that many points and would be in good shape. He will probably be around # 15 after Roland Garros and thats assuming he doesnt have that good of a clay season. He will have many chances after RG to gain points. He isnt defending that much. He really is not in bad shape no matter what people in GM say. He will be top 10 maybe even around 5 at the end of the year.
If Ivan will lose all this points,and fall down to #15,he will never come back.He will start to get bad draws,and it's probably the end.This is the most important stage in his career.Either he will stay a top player,or he will fall down and in a couple of months he will be history and nobody will talk about him anymore.