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post #16 of 29 (permalink) Old 10-23-2012, 12:20 AM
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Re: Italian scientists sentenced to 6 years for failing to predict earthquake

Prosecutor Fabio Picuti, however, insists the point is not whether they could have predicted the quake. He says the government-appointed experts' job was to evaluate the risk and advise a large population in a town with fragile, ancient buildings.



L' aquila has old buildings people. Its not like they can change their buildings suddendly.

I dont think its fair for them to go to jail, but clearly they did a bad job, as evidenced by this part:

"Clearly, [the scientists] said, 'look, we cannot predict an earthquake. We can say that the likelihood that these small tremors will lead to a major earthquake is not that great'. One of them even got carried away and said that the small tremors were a good thing, because they would dissipate the energy and make it unlikely for a major earthquake to come."


Since Italia cant fire those guys from the commitee since they are the best in what they do, they are probably trying to punish them in a severe way.

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post #17 of 29 (permalink) Old 10-23-2012, 04:01 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Italian scientists sentenced to 6 years for failing to predict earthquake

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Since Italia cant fire those guys from the commitee since they are the best in what they do, they are probably trying to punish them in a severe way.
Maybe they should never have studied so hard and worked their asses off to get into this position in the first place. Then they would never have been appointed, never made a miscalculation and never been convicted. Better off being lazy and never aspiring to anything.

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post #18 of 29 (permalink) Old 10-23-2012, 05:24 AM
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Re: Italian scientists sentenced to 6 years for failing to predict earthquake

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clearly they did a bad job, as evidenced by this part:

"Clearly, [the scientists] said, 'look, we cannot predict an earthquake. We can say that the likelihood that these small tremors will lead to a major earthquake is not that great'. One of them even got carried away and said that the small tremors were a good thing, because they would dissipate the energy and make it unlikely for a major earthquake to come."
how is it clear?

maybe they were right and it was unlikely that an earthquake would happen.

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post #19 of 29 (permalink) Old 10-23-2012, 06:21 AM
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Re: Italian scientists sentenced to 6 years for failing to predict earthquake

this is the worst thing a judge has decided since my 30 years on the planet. The retardedness is just too big to be true.
I feel for the scientists, who were just working in a field where there still are alot of uncertainties, and predicting anything is quite hard (much like the weather was 50 years ago). I feel for the government official for...I don't even know what this person did wrong.
The ironic thing is that we as a Western society cannot sentence f*cking anti social self serving greedy bankers when it is so clear that the are responsible for so much crap, but we can sentence a handful of scientists and a government official for something mother nature did?

It does not stop at these innocent people being incarcerated. The entire scientific community in the pirate state of Italy will now cease to function, because apparently not being able to interpret data can lose to incarceration.

I call for sanctions against Italy! Seriously. We can go all tough on middle eastern countries when they are acting like barbarians..time to hold western countries to the same standard.

Last edited by Jverweij; 10-23-2012 at 11:59 AM.
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post #20 of 29 (permalink) Old 10-23-2012, 06:53 AM
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Re: Italian scientists sentenced to 6 years for failing to predict earthquake

What are the Italians thinking here? Are there any Italian members who can tell us more about this case? What we can see makes no sense at all.
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post #21 of 29 (permalink) Old 10-23-2012, 07:30 AM
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Re: Italian scientists sentenced to 6 years for failing to predict earthquake

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I dont think its fair for them to go to jail, but clearly they did a bad job, as evidenced by this part:

"Clearly, [the scientists] said, 'look, we cannot predict an earthquake. We can say that the likelihood that these small tremors will lead to a major earthquake is not that great'. One of them even got carried away and said that the small tremors were a good thing, because they would dissipate the energy and make it unlikely for a major earthquake to come."
Don't be an idiot! What they said was true. I live in an earthquake area and that's what our scientists say too-- many small tremors usually are a sign no big one is coming exactly because the energy gets out slowly.

This is nature, once in a while the things go a different way. To jail scientists for that?! Madness! I agree that this was done to divert attention from construction companies and local government that is obliged to control compliance of buildings to the safety standards.
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post #22 of 29 (permalink) Old 10-23-2012, 09:51 AM
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Re: Italian scientists sentenced to 6 years for failing to predict earthquake

It's not like they purposely hoaxed this

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post #23 of 29 (permalink) Old 10-23-2012, 10:21 AM
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Re: Italian scientists sentenced to 6 years for failing to predict earthquake

simon read has gone into hiding
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post #24 of 29 (permalink) Old 10-23-2012, 10:27 AM
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Re: Italian scientists sentenced to 6 years for failing to predict earthquake

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I guess he should be OK så long as he doesn't try to predict the winner in Rome....
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post #25 of 29 (permalink) Old 10-23-2012, 11:58 AM
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Re: Italian scientists sentenced to 6 years for failing to predict earthquake

for those not familiar with this case, here is a nice article written yesterday that sums up just how messed up this is:


http://http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Backchannels/2012/1022/Earthquake-predictions-and-a-triumph-of-scientific-illiteracy-in-an-Italian-court

the stupidity of this judge really baffles me
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post #26 of 29 (permalink) Old 10-23-2012, 12:09 PM
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Re: Italian scientists sentenced to 6 years for failing to predict earthquake

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Nah, I doubt it. Reed predicted that they wouldn't go to jail.

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post #27 of 29 (permalink) Old 10-23-2012, 12:24 PM
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Re: Italian scientists sentenced to 6 years for failing to predict earthquake

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Maybe they should never have studied so hard and worked their asses off to get into this position in the first place. Then they would never have been appointed, never made a miscalculation and never been convicted. Better off being lazy and never aspiring to anything.

An inspiration to all those enthusiastic young kids.
Of course, but dont worry, they wont go to jail...yet.

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how is it clear?

maybe they were right and it was unlikely that an earthquake would happen.

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Don't be an idiot! What they said was true. I live in an earthquake area and that's what our scientists say too-- many small tremors usually are a sign no big one is coming exactly because the energy gets out slowly.

This is nature, once in a while the things go a different way. To jail scientists for that?! Madness! I agree that this was done to divert attention from construction companies and local government that is obliged to control compliance of buildings to the safety standards.
Its clear in the sense that there should not be a commitee if predictions could be so unacurate, I mean, the defense should have shown at least 10 cases in the past of this commitee in which the commitee said that small tremors would make very unlikely to have a big tremor and then no tremor happened. It would be a good statistical data, like out of 10 of 11 times the scientists were right and that unfortunately the earthquake thah happened was a misfortune. Look, I am not trying to attack the scientists, just explaining that if a comittee of major tragedies is formed, this commitee should not underrate risks. And I dont b elieve its that obvious that small tremors will dissipate the energy, in fact, every time you have a big earthquake you have small tremors before, so I dont believe theres a rule yes.

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post #28 of 29 (permalink) Old 10-23-2012, 01:03 PM
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Re: Italian scientists sentenced to 6 years for failing to predict earthquake

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And I dont b elieve its that obvious that small tremors will dissipate the energy, in fact, every time you have a big earthquake you have small tremors before, so I dont believe theres a rule yes.
This is just not true. Of course you could say that every time there is a big earthquake there are small tremors before. But this is like saying every time it rains clouds form in the sky just before. But clouds forming in the sky don't mean rain.

There is only one thing a small tremor can do - and that is release energy. But nobody can predict the potential energy present. If it is small there may be nothing more than tremors. If it is large there may be a big one at any time.

But I think most sensible people realise that if the scientists had behaved like the judge apparently expected them to behave, most of Italy would be permanently evacuated.

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Last edited by buddyholly; 10-23-2012 at 01:18 PM.
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post #29 of 29 (permalink) Old 10-23-2012, 02:35 PM
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Re: Italian scientists sentenced to 6 years for failing to predict earthquake

I always thought Italy was strange and weird but this is ridiculous, if somewhat tragically hilarious.

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