What does Roger need to stay #1 ? - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 10:36 PM Thread Starter
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What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

Well ok, I will move this discussion from out of that Cincy thread. This was mentioned as a side point in that thread and it's something I am interested in. Someone said that Rafa has no chance of overtaking Roger this year....but looking at the Entry points I don't think that's true. Could someone illustrate how it's impossible for Roger to lose the #1 ranking this year?

It seems just on the surface to me that if Rafa were to win the USOpen and one more MS tournament he might do it. A lot can happen between now and the end of the year in that either guy could get injured. Roger has points to defend at the USOpen, while Rafa doesn't. What do you guys think?

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post #2 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 10:38 PM
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Re: What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

I think that if he wins the USopen, he is guarantied the no 1 spot to at least next year since he can gain a lots of point during the fall. It is going to be hard for Nadal to take over Roger this year unless Roger fail to defend 3/4 of his points. However, if Nadal doers way better than Roger during the rest of the year, he would put himself in good position to overtake Roger next year.

Last edited by Shy; 08-14-2005 at 10:52 PM.
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post #3 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 10:58 PM
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Re: What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

You're not worried are you? Because you know that's what all the Rafa groupies want - a bunch of Roger fans all worried that he might lose #1. Next week all the big boys are back in action. And Roger's record in Cincy isn horrible. We all know he's going to want to correct that. Look after he lost at the FO - then he wins in Halle and Wimbledon and the limelight is back on him again. I don't think he's going to let Nadal hog the limelight to long.

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post #4 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 11:01 PM
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Re: What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mirkaland
. I don't think he's going to let Nadal hog the limelight to long.
I rather be Roger than Andy, Lleyton and Marat.Nobody talks about them anymore. The media talks only about Rafa and Roger.
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post #5 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 11:05 PM Thread Starter
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Re: What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shy
I think that if he wins the USopen, he is guarantied the no 1 spot to at least next year since he can gain a lots of point during the fall. It is going to be hard for Nadal to take over Roger this year unless Roger fail to defend 3/4 of his points. However, if Nadal doers way better than Roger during the rest of the year, he would put himself in good position to overtake Roger next year.
If Roger wins the USOpen, I think he would clinch the #1 ranking for the year....but what happens if he doens't win it and Nadal were to win it instead? Right now it seems to me that both Roger and Rafa will have to try to outdo the other for the remaining tournaments.

I love Roger, but I am just looking at this realistically and wondering. I think a factor to consider is that everything isn't even determined by how they match up to each other. A big factor can be how well Hewitt, Roddick, and Safin are playing. Usually in a major or MS to get to a final a player has to have a couple of hard matches against some other top 5 guys. So far I don't think Nadal has never faced back to back top 5 opponents that give him a battle. He lucked out in Miami and Montreal both times. If Safin and Hewitt were on their game they could bother Nadal a lot.

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post #6 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 11:06 PM
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Re: What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

Don't get too worried, but it's not at all impossible for Roger to lose the top ranking this year; Nadal can take it from him as early as the end of the US Open.

At the moment Roger is still 2000+ points ahead, but that can change very quickly, especially as he has a grand slam title to defend shortly. For him to lose it, Rafa would probably have to win both Cincy and the USO, and Roger would have to get less than 300-500 points in these events. It depends partly on whether Nadal plays at New Haven as well, as he could pick up points there.
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post #7 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 11:08 PM
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Re: What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

Posted by PamV

Quote:

The Entry rank is what determines who is the year ending #1 so isn't that more important? Sampras was #1 for six years in the Entry ranking system and that's one record that Roger wanted to match. I don't know if Sampras held that spot consecutively for 6 years or if he ever lost the spot within a year and then got it back by year's end.

No, the entry ranking includes points from last year which will be off by the end of the year. The race includes only points earned this year

In Sampras' time the race did not exist.

I've never heard that he wants any of Sampras' records. In fact in his interview to The Russian magazine " Prosport" he says " It's nice to have them (records), but it's not the reason why I'm playing."

Sampras did lose his number one ranking in the middle of the season a few times but always finished no1 at the end of the year, and it counts the most.

Nadal has a very good chance to finish this year No1. In fact, if he wins the USO, he 'll be no 1 in the mind of many people, no matter how points will play out at the end of the year. Because he''ll be the holder of 2 GS titles. The same applies to Roger if he wins the USO. Um.., if Safin wins the USO, will people consider him No1?

Last edited by ExpectedWinner; 08-14-2005 at 11:12 PM.
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post #8 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 11:09 PM Thread Starter
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Re: What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mirkaland
You're not worried are you? Because you know that's what all the Rafa groupies want - a bunch of Roger fans all worried that he might lose #1. Next week all the big boys are back in action. And Roger's record in Cincy isn horrible. We all know he's going to want to correct that. Look after he lost at the FO - then he wins in Halle and Wimbledon and the limelight is back on him again. I don't think he's going to let Nadal hog the limelight to long.
Mirkaland....I am not even bothering to read what the Nadal fans post. I have been wondering about how secure Roger's #1 spot is all by myself for a long time. I am a Roger fan all the way....but I just like to talk realistically about what is going on. I don't we think should hide our thoughts for fear that the Nadal zealouts will read this. I don't let myself be controlled by them one way or another.

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post #9 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 11:12 PM
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Re: What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

Yes, Sampras was number one for six years at the end of the year. Being number one at the end of the year is just "neat"; with a twelve month rolling system, no week is more important than another. He only ever had 102 weeks consecutively at number one - both Connors and Lendl had more than a year longer than that. (Year-end number one is an overrated statistic imo.)
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post #10 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 11:13 PM Thread Starter
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Re: What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ExpectedWinner

No, the entry ranking includes points from last year which will be off by the end of the year. The race includes includes only points earned this year
Of course entry rank points get replaced by the current year's results. What I am saying is that the Entry Rank system is what determines who is the true #1, and the year ending #1. The Entry Rank is always what is used for seeding in tournaments. It's really what the players care about MORE than the ATP Race.

The ATP race is soley for the purpose of determining who plays in the year end Masters Cup.

Roger Forever !

Last edited by PamV; 08-14-2005 at 11:16 PM.
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post #11 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 11:15 PM Thread Starter
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Re: What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jtipson
Yes, Sampras was number one for six years at the end of the year. Being number one at the end of the year is just "neat"; with a twelve month rolling system, no week is more important than another. He only ever had 102 weeks consecutively at number one - both Connors and Lendl had more than a year longer than that. (Year-end number one is an overrated statistic imo.)
I was wondering about that. How many consecutive weeks has Roger had as Entry Rank #1? Those things are always talked about in the debate over who is better between Federer and Sampras.

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post #12 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 11:16 PM
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Re: What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PamV
Of course entry rank points get replaced by the current year's results. What I am saying is that the Entry Ranks system is what determines who is the true #1, and the year ending #1.

The ATP race is soley for the purpose of determining who plays in the year end Masters Cup.
But at the end of the year entry ranking is a mirror reflection of the race. Only amount of points is calculated differently. Players who are No1, 51, 101 in the race at the end of the year will be number 1, 51, 101 in the entry ranking.
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post #13 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 11:17 PM
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Re: What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PamV
Of course entry rank points get replaced by the current year's results. What I am saying is that the Entry Rank system is what determines who is the true #1, and the year ending #1. The Entry Rank is always what is used for seeding in tournaments. It's really what the players care about MORE than the ATP Race.

The ATP race is soley for the purpose of determining who plays in the year end Masters Cup.
Yeah but I think at the end of the year whoever is #1 in the Race will also be #1 in the Entry Rankings. At least someone here who knows better than me said so.

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post #14 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 11:18 PM
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Re: What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

Roger has had 80 consecutive weeks at number one so far. Nobody can overtake him before he gets to 84 weeks.
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post #15 of 372 (permalink) Old 08-14-2005, 11:22 PM
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Re: What does Roger need to stay #1 ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PamV
Mirkaland....I am not even bothering to read what the Nadal fans post. I have been wondering about how secure Roger's #1 spot is all by myself for a long time. I am a Roger fan all the way....but I just like to talk realistically about what is going on. I don't we think should hide our thoughts for fear that the Nadal zealouts will read this. I don't let myself be controlled by them one way or another.
I understand. It's just that's what their waiting to pounce on. Any hint of worry by Roger fans. Already there's posts in GM with all the supposed excuses (I'm guessing by Fed fans) for why Rafa won today - even though no one is downlplaying his win at all.

I don't worry about what I can't control. And I think Roger should just worry about himself and not care about Rafa (not saying you think he should). In fact in Cincy I hope he just focuses on the match in front of him and doesn't think about a potential final with Rafa.

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