There's no other choice but to be incredibly fit and great from the start in his first tournament of the year at 30 years old.
All of his first three rounds' opponents can be very very dangerous : Paire, Davydenko, Tomic or Klizan.
Next rounds are better and then there's Murray but I can't look that far, as these first rounds are the worst he's had in years, and precisely the year when he hasn't had warm-up tournaments !
Either he's in one of his best slam forms of recent years or it can be finished early.
If he is in mediocre slam form I expect him to reach qf/sf pretty straight forward. And mediocre is what happens most. I feel that some exho at the start of the year doesn't really matter, Federer himself said that he thought a training session would be more important.
For me because of the hard draw the chances are a little higher that he exits in rd2 or 3. but still he didn't make QFs for almost ten years because he has troubles with/is vulnerable against unseeded players!
by the way, your favourite player is 31 years old. It seems like now he won a slam again everyone calls him a 30year old, where last year when he was actually 30 he was called 31