I'm far more worried about Federer losing early in the clay season than about Nadal cleaning everything on clay as he did in the past.
I think people are overating Nadal's current level.
Yesterday after a few games, you had the stat
Unforced errors : Nadal 10 Tsonga 1
And I've seen many more unforced errors from Nadal recently.
Physically he's not a beast as he was in Doha.
I always have the impression that people judge players on their results and not on their game.
It reminds me of Nadal beating Tsonga in Paris "he's back and everything" ... he was crushed by Djokovic next round.
I prefer looking at the GAME.
When I saw Nadal in Doha, I was really afraid of him making back a huge season.
In Doha he was really great, esp physically.
At this moment I would have bet on Nadal number 1 without any problems.
But since Melbourne, and after coming back from injury here (I guess everybody is forgetting that), he's good but far from his best and Doha's level.
Even Tsonga said that he felt that he was less breathless after long points than Nadal (but he also said that as he took one minute for rest before serving, he didn't suffer from that
I don't think Nadal will clean up all of the clay season, and even if Djokovic, who is usually his main opponent, is far from his best.
As he plays now, I think that many players, esp claycourt players, can give him many problems on clay.
And it will be exhausting for him if he has many hard matches like the one against Ferrer a few days ago.
The best I can imagine for Nadal would be that he wins Miami, MCarlo, Barcelona and Roma, skips Madrid
(he's not on the poster of the tournament by the way), and wins RG : in that case, Federer would need 1700 points to break the record. Actually I'm worried about Federer doing it, but I'm far from sure that Nadal can do all of that. Already he has far from won Miami imo.
When Blue Swan says that Nadal has an advantage in the rankings because he can clean up clay season while his opponents have to share the points on hard courts, actually this advantage has a huge drawback : he has to play mant matches in a row.
He's also going far on hardcourt tournaments before the clay season : it's one more burden for him and his knees before the clay season
Federer can lose early on clay season, that's definitely possible imo, but I wouldn't bet at all in a Nadal cleaning up everything on clay as he did previous years (including 2009 when only Roland-Garros was missing).