It's true that players are getting written off too soon (and btw, also hyped up too much too soon), but I indeed have a hard time believing that Roger will be capable of getting back that #1 (I'd love to be proven wrong of course).
The signs for him to take the Sampras record after the AO were very good, as there were plenty of points for Roger to take up during the Spring, even more with a number of top players being injured/out of form. Unfortunately, he failed dramatically.
The situation is entirely different right now: Roger has tons of points to defend, while the injured players will be coming back at a certain point, and I expect Murray & Djokovic to try and pick up their forms as well. Not to mention Rafa of course, who, after today's match, has shown that he's fully back to business. And then we have young and upcoming players like Gulbis, Cilic, etc...
Nope, I think Roger blew his chances this year for the reasons summed up so well by ApproachShot. Some of those reasons he of course had no influence on (his lung infection), but others... apparently I was completely right about my fears of him skipping MC, and it cost him dearly.
There is, however, one thing we shouldn't forget: if Rafa hadn't become injured last year, handing over the #1 position back to Roger, we wouldn't even have held this discussion to start with.
Roger has plenty records already, I'd say, let Sampy keep this one.