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post #211 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-29-2010, 12:46 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by Massimoexp View Post
Thank you very much Wacky ....

Points roger needs to earn to GUARANTEE breaking 286 weeks at no.1:
is important i think.
In my opinion if Roger plays the finals at Roland Garros and Madrid , he will break the record.
okay thanks for pointing out... somehow i under calculated... have updated the number based on my figures...

also playing RG and madrid finals only ensure he overtakes nadal but not clear of djokovic... yes i know nadal is still the favorite because he rules the clay season for all the previous 5 years...?? but if you want to make a statement about "GUARANTEE" it means you have to be mathematical about it and consider djokovic's chances too...

* i did not include roger's davis cup points in his total... since we have no idea when will ATP decide to include or exclude those points... so perhaps they may take them away again...


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post #212 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-29-2010, 05:47 AM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Yes, but that's not gonna happen. Somebody needs to take Nadal out early at RG, but I don't see anyone being able to do that. More likely that he skips Madrid, but still very unlikely.
yes it's more about Nadal now, to say the truth.

And even if Nadal wins Roma and Madrid, he has a good chance to still be seeded 3 in French Open, considering that Djokovic only needs 700 points and has a great draw in Roma, should reach the final imo, and plays Belgrade next week.

It means that after Madrid where Federer may meet Nadal in the semifinal, he may also meet him in the semifinal in French Open

the chance to beat that record in next weeks looks small now imo, except if Nadal has a problem. But well, it's still possible to take number 1 back later in the year

Anyway, I still think that if Nadal keeps on like that, he fully deserves to be number 1 early

Federer has been unlucky with the draws recently imo, but Nadal still looks like a real solid number 1 : he's young and strong, it's normal imo, he had lost number 1 a little bit by bad luck as well.

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post #213 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-29-2010, 11:43 AM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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yes it's more about Nadal now, to say the truth.
It is.

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And even if Nadal wins Roma and Madrid, he has a good chance to still be seeded 3 in French Open, considering that Djokovic only needs 700 points and has a great draw in Roma, should reach the final imo, and plays Belgrade next week.

It means that after Madrid where Federer may meet Nadal in the semifinal, he may also meet him in the semifinal in French Open
Pfft yes. What a nightmare. If for one thing, I wish for Rafa to get back to #2 asap (for obvious reasons), but I guess that's all depending on what Djoko will be able to do, in coming two months or so.

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the chance to beat that record in next weeks looks small now imo, except if Nadal has a problem. But well, it's still possible to take number 1 back later in the year
Rafa has already made the very sensible decision to skip Barcelona this year (finally!), so I get the impression that he's surely not going to blow himself up again like he did last year. Unless some disaster happens, he'll surely be back at #1 after Wimbledon (where there's a points swing between Roger and himself of !4000! at stake ), and maybe, even before that.

As for Roger's chances to take it back later in the year... doubtful as well. He's got a USO final and a Cincy victory to defend, whereas Rafa can pick up lots of points about anywhere (due to the difference in points between reaching QFs, SFs and the like and actually WINNING tournaments, which he didn't manage to do for 11 long months). 1500 points for him for grabs at the WTF alone, just to mention one thing.
I think that unless Murray and Djokovic step it up, and perhaps DelPotro and Denko finally recovering from their injuries, the YE #1 might well be decided at Wimbledon this year.

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Anyway, I still think that if Nadal keeps on like that, he fully deserves to be number 1 early
Most definitely. It's as easy as this: the guy that racks up the most points, is deserving of being #1, whatever the circumstances. I leave discussions about 'luck' and 'non-deserving' players up to the likes of SetSampras and co.

Quote:
Federer has been unlucky with the draws recently imo, but Nadal still looks like a real solid number 1 : he's young and strong, it's normal imo, he had lost number 1 a little bit by bad luck as well.
Exactly. It goes both ways.

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post #214 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-29-2010, 02:14 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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As for Roger's chances to take it back later in the year... doubtful as well. He's got a USO final and a Cincy victory to defend, whereas Rafa can pick up lots of points about anywhere (due to the difference in points between reaching QFs, SFs and the like and actually WINNING tournaments, which he didn't manage to do for 11 long months).

I think that unless Murray and Djokovic step it up, and perhaps DelPotro and Denko finally recovering from their injuries, the YE #1 might well be decided at Wimbledon this year.
yes if Fed wants to take back number 1 later in the year, he definitely has :

- to win Wimbledon

- to go far in the US Open

As for Nadal's physical risks, they are still there imo, and about Barcelona I think that the "fully positive" interpretation is very optimistic imo.

If he hadn't had any problems at all, I don't think he would have withdrawn.

He had never spoken about withdrawing Barcelona before despite the kind of "post-interpretations" I read saying that "he might cancel some tournaments" : it was always about Madrid, never about Barcelona in what I read.

Of course Nadal can also win Wimbledon and win hardcourt tournaments as he already did, but being beaten early in Wimbledon and not winning hardcourt tournaments is also a possibility for him imo : on quick surfaces and against flat quick shots, his movement has been fragile recently, see the end of Roddick's match.

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post #215 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-30-2010, 06:22 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

With Djokovic out of Roma, now there's a better chance that Nadal is seeded 2 in Roland-Garros ... and then a better chance for Federer to reach the final and stay number 1 after the tournament

Apart from Nadal, the level of clay players is not as good as last year, especially Del Potro and Davydenko are still injured, Djokovic still has problems ... Federer would have a good chance to reach the final if only Nadal was not in his half of the draw.

Djokovic now needs to win Belgrade and play the semi in Madrid, or reach the final in Madrid to stay number 2 before Roland-Garros ... if Nadal wins both Roma and Madrid of course, if that's to be said

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post #216 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-30-2010, 06:34 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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With Djokovic out of Roma, now there's a better chance that Nadal is seeded 2 in Roland-Garros ... and then a better chance for Federer to reach the final and stay number 1 after the tournament

Apart from Nadal, the level of clay players is not as good as last year, especially Del Potro and Davydenko are still injured, Djokovic still has problems ... Federer would have a good chance to reach the final if only Nadal was not in his half of the draw.

Djokovic now needs to win Belgrade and play the semi in Madrid, or reach the final in Madrid to stay number 2 before Roland-Garros ... if Nadal wins both Roma and Madrid of course, if that's to be said
Must admit I'm quite happy with Djoko losing to Verdasco yesterday. And to be honest, I don't see him reach the final in Madrid, either.

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post #217 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-30-2010, 06:39 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

dont tell me that git Nadal is playing Madrid
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post #218 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-30-2010, 07:02 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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dont tell me that git Nadal is playing Madrid
Why not? He's in a great form, and has already skipped Barcelona to prevent him from overplaying. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't show up in Madrid.

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post #219 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-30-2010, 08:48 PM Thread Starter
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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dont tell me that git Nadal is playing Madrid
madrid is a masters 1000... no? so he don't get to say no.. no?


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post #220 of 415 (permalink) Old 05-01-2010, 07:14 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

well i thought i read somewhere a few weeks ago that he wouldnt play Madrid this year

must be my old age
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post #221 of 415 (permalink) Old 05-01-2010, 07:19 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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well i thought i read somewhere a few weeks ago that he wouldnt play Madrid this year

must be my old age
You're visiting the wrong forums, Mikey.

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post #222 of 415 (permalink) Old 05-01-2010, 07:23 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

i hope he plays and wins there Karin... five 4 hour matches
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post #223 of 415 (permalink) Old 05-01-2010, 07:41 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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i hope he plays and wins there Karin... five 4 hour matches
- well for that to happen, some of his opponents will have to step it up for a bit. Don't see it happening right now...
And I want him to play and win because I want him back at #2 before RG.

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post #224 of 415 (permalink) Old 05-03-2010, 07:58 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

wacky , for this record what is your opinion about Roger's chance ? below or above % 50 ?
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post #225 of 415 (permalink) Old 05-03-2010, 10:38 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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wacky , for this record what is your opinion about Roger's chance ? below or above % 50 ?
just look at the possibilities I posted post 204 and make your own opinion

Note that if Nadal fails in either Madrid or French Open, a semifinal in French Open and a win in Estoril is enough. Or a QF in Paris and a semi in Madrid for instance.

I think it's around 50%, around that there are probably many different opinions

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