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post #196 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-27-2010, 07:30 PM Thread Starter
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Have you actually watched today's match? Or any of Rafa's, lately?
That record will now remain Sampras's, pretty sure of that.
oh damned!! i didn't notice about the news about the results until now... i guess it's all up to nadal's performances now.... :/



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post #197 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-27-2010, 07:45 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Well Fed had to succeed in 5 tournaments (Queens included) : only 1 is gone

As for Nadal, he still has to go for it and would fully deserve it if he does considering his level and consistency since his injury.

But well, even Djokovic is not out of that : he has a great draw in Roma, and if anything happens to Nadal, he has a great shot at winning it

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post #198 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 02:52 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

okay i'm going for the gloom and doom situation too -- that roger is not going to get the record (at least for now)... better to expect the worst and hope for the best...

in any case... let's consider situation... realistically only nadal and djokovic likely to overtake roger after RG... let's consider nadal first... we assume that if he doesn't screw up... meaning ppl still expect him to win ALL the remaining clay titles... that is rome + madrid + RG... if roger does not screw up... which assuming he makes finals of madrid and RG... that'll be 1800 points and will ensure lead over nadal after RG...

if you ask me... i have no idea what's the odds like... nadal have not won MC + rome + madrid + RG for last 4 years... and his consistencies in the recent years also becoming a suspect... the odds are against him doing so... but hey he did it in 2005...

and considering roger of making finals of madrid and RG *ought* to be not too much of a problem for him... considering he makes RG finals for 4 yrs in a row and madrid finals 3 times last 4 yrs.... plus we haven't seen him make such a long streak of early losses in masters for like since he became no.1 ... a similar result was in 2007 although he played MC and made it to finals and did still make finals of madrid and RG... but well he WILL FALL some day and this year could "officially" be that year...?

and not forgetting djokovic... we may very well end up having federer managing to stay ahead of nadal (who perhaps end up losing some points in rome/madrid/RG) but falling to djokovic... where mathematically speaking he is still the favorite to overtake federer after RG...


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post #199 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 07:04 AM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

wacky ; are you going to update the numbers after this week ?
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post #200 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 08:05 AM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

What really worries me about this loss yesterday was that Roger somehow got out of jail - he saved 6 match points to level the match at 5-5 in the third set. Normally you'd expect Roger to win such a match, but lately he has just faded in close decisive third sets.

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post #201 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 08:44 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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wacky ; are you going to update the numbers after this week ?
i'm going to update the post after this week... but which numbers in particular are u referring to...? i often tend to forget updating some parts of the post... it'll help alot if you could point out to me.... (some numbers i just realized they weren't updated properly the last time round...)


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post #202 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 09:58 AM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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I can't believe that Federer is probably going to miss out on the record now. I would never have thought it.

that will suck big time if Roger doesn't get the record.




~~~Roger Federer (17 GS): Wimbledon 2003, AO 2004, Wimbledon 2004, US Open 2004, Wimbledon 2005, US Open 2005, AO 2006, Wimbledon 2006, US Open 2006, AO 2007, Wimbledon 2007, US Open 2007, US Open 2008, Roland Garros 2009, Wimbledon 2009, AO 2010, Wimbledon 2012 ~~~

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post #203 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 10:15 AM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

GS tournaments last 2 weeks and there is no ranking update after the first week.
Does a GS count for 1 week or 2 weeks in this record total ?
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post #204 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 10:26 AM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Gs of course count for 2 weeks

Ok I made that quick calculation.

If Nadal wins Roma, Madrid and Roland-Garros,

Federer needs 1360 points to keep number 1 by Roland-Garros , and then be certain to equal the record ... and probably beat it if he keeps number 1 after Halle/the Queens.


I can see two ways of doing it, but it mostly depends on the ability of Federer of reaching the French Open final imo :

- either he reaches the French Open final : in that case, he only needs a final in Estoril (and take part in Madrid) or a quarterfinal in Madrid (or a semifinal in Estoril and a R16 in Madrid) to keep number 1 after Roland-Garros

- either he doesn't reach that French Open final : in that case, he needs all of these conditions to apply : reach Madrid final, Roland-Garros semifinal and win one match in Estoril

Note that if he's a little bit short (for instance Madrid semifinal), he still has a chance of breaking the record if he wins Halle and Nadal doesn't take part or doesn't win one match in the Queens.

If Nadal fails, well there's still Djokovic to counter : he only needs 1300 points more than Federer until Roland-Garros, and has a very good draw here in Roma.

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Last edited by duong; 04-28-2010 at 10:40 AM. Reason: in second case he doesn't need to reach Estoril final, only win one match
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post #205 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 10:29 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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GS tournaments last 2 weeks and there is no ranking update after the first week.
Does a GS count for 1 week or 2 weeks in this record total ?
well that will mean the french open... the points earned in this year french will take effective on the #286 week... i.e. 7 June... so in other words i would consider the week before as #285 week even though no ranking updates... which also mean that we are halfway through french open itself...


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post #206 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 02:49 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

Roger if lost his NO.1, may be is a good thing to him now~~
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post #207 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 07:29 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Originally Posted by wackykid View Post
i'm going to update the post after this week... but which numbers in particular are u referring to...? i often tend to forget updating some parts of the post... it'll help alot if you could point out to me.... (some numbers i just realized they weren't updated properly the last time round...)


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Thank you very much Wacky ....

Points roger needs to earn to GUARENTEE breaking 286 weeks at no.1:
is important i think.
In my opinion if Roger plays the finals at Roland Garros and Madrid , he will break the record.
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post #208 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 07:53 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Thank you very much Wacky ....

Points roger needs to earn to GUARENTEE breaking 286 weeks at no.1:
is important i think.
In my opinion if Roger plays the finals at Roland Garros and Madrid , he will break the record.
Yes, but that's not gonna happen. Somebody needs to take Nadal out early at RG, but I don't see anyone being able to do that. More likely that he skips Madrid, but still very unlikely.

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post #209 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 09:12 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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Yes, but that's not gonna happen. Somebody needs to take Nadal out early at RG, but I don't see anyone being able to do that. More likely that he skips Madrid, but still very unlikely.
If Nadal wins madrid and roland garros but on the other hand Federer also plays the finals of roland garros and madrid ; i think Federer can break the record..
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post #210 of 415 (permalink) Old 04-28-2010, 10:54 PM
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Re: The countdown to most #1 record thread

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What really worries me about this loss yesterday was that Roger somehow got out of jail - he saved 6 match points to level the match at 5-5 in the third set. Normally you'd expect Roger to win such a match, but lately he has just faded in close decisive third sets.
i think it was more a case of gulbis choking, rather than fed saving those matchpoints. of course i wanted fed to hold serve after that, but i wasn't entirely surprised when he didn't, considering his awful play in the third set (and maybe the whole match? i only saw that final set).
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