How many points will Roger get for making Estoril F (or winning it). Might that make up the points lost if he goes out earlier than the F in MC?
Estoril awards 120 and 175 points, respectively, to the runner-up and winner. For MC, Roger's defending 350 points.
Thus, if my reckoning is correct --
1) If he gets 120 at Estoril, he has to earn at least 230 points so as not to be in deficit. A SF finish (225) at MC would set him back by 5, which means he has to gun for no less than a final spot again to gain some breathing room.
2) A win in Estoril would be the better scenario and can afford him a SF finish (225) at MC while gaining him some points, too.