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Federer's ranking discussion

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#1 · (Edited by Moderator)
UPDATED after Rome
After a horrid start to the clay season, Roger finally found some of his form and recorded good wins over the likes of Gulbis, Wawrinka and Ferrer, before succombing to old foe Rafa Nadal in the final. By reaching the final Roger scored some much needed ranking points, although the total for his overall ranking was negative as he was the defending champion. Now Roger needs a semifinal at RG to secure that he equals the Sampras record of most weeks at #1.

Here are the overall ranking points:

Overall 52-week ranking points
1. Roger Federer: 10030 points
2. Rafael Nadal: 6880 points
3. Novak Djokovic: 6405 points

These are the points broken down:

Roger Federer
Points scored in 2010:
Doha (hard) SF: 90
Australian Open (hard) WINNER: 2000
TMS Indian Wells (hard) R32: 45
TMS Miami (hard) R16: 90
TMS Rome (clay) R32: 10
Estoril (clay) SF: 90
TMS Madrid (clay) FINALIST: 600

Points to defend:
Roland Garros (clay) WINNER: 2000
Wimbledon (grass) WINNER: 2000
TMS Canada (hard) QF: 180
TMS Cincinatti (hard) WINNER: 1000
US Open (hard) FINALIST: 1200
Basel (indoor) FINALIST: 300
TMS Paris (indoor) R32: 10
WTF (indoor) SF: 400


Rafael Nadal
Points scored in 2010:
Doha (hard) FINALIST: 150
Australian Open (hard) QF: 360
TMS Indian Wells (hard) SF: 360
TMS Miami (hard) SF: 360
TMS Monte Carlo (clay) WINNER: 1000
TMS Rome (clay) WINNER: 1000
TMS Madrid (clay) WINNER: 1000

Points to defend:
Roland Garros (clay) R16: 180
TMS Canada (hard) QF: 180
TMS Cincinatti (hard) SF: 360
US Open (hard) SF: 720
Beijing (hard) SF: 180
TMS Shanghai (hard) FINALIST: 600
TMS Paris (Indoor) SF: 360
WTF (indoor) RR: 0

Novak Djokovic
Australian Open (hard) QF: 360
Rotterdam (indoor hard) SF: 180 - does not count towards best 5.
Dubai (hard) WINNER: 500
TMS Indian Wells (hard) R16: 90
TMS Miami (hard) R64: 10
TMS Monte Carlo (clay) SF: 360
TMS Rome (clay) QF: 180
Belgrade (clay) QF: 45

Points to defend:
Roland Garros (clay) R32: 90
Halle (grass) FINALIST: 150
Wimbledon (grass) QF: 360
TMS Canada (hard) QF: 180
TMS Cincinatti (hard) FINALIST: 600
US Open (hard) SF: 720
Beijing (hard) WINNER: 500
TMS Shanghai (hard) SF: 360
Basel (Indoor) WINNER: 500
TMS Paris (Indoor) WINNER: 1000
WTF (indoor) RR: 400
 
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#3 ·
Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1

Right. In this thread I’ll regularly update Rogers ranking points and compare them with his nearest rival (Nadal for the foreseeable future), to assess whether his #1 ranking is in jeopardy.

Currently the score is:

Roger Federer: 7515 points
Rafael Nadal: 5225 points

This gives Federer a solid 2290 point lead. However, Nadal has infact so far scored more points than Federer in 2007.

Rogers points scored in 2007:
Australian Open (hard) WINNER: 1000
Dubai (hard) WINNER: 300
TMS Indian Wells (hard) R64: 5
TMS Miami (hard) R16: 75

TMS Monte Carlo (clay) FINALIST: 350
TMS Rome (clay) R16: 75
TMS Hamburg (clay) WINNER: 500


These are the points that Roger has to defend for the remainder of the year:

Roland Garros (clay) FINALIST: 700
Halle (grass) WINNER: 225
Wimbledon (grass) WINNER: 1000

TMS Toronto (hard) WINNER: 500
TMS Cincinnatti (hard) R32: 35
US Open (hard) WINNER: 1000

Tokyo (indoor hard) WINNER: 250
TMS Madrid (indoor carpet) WINNER: 500
Basel (indoor hard) WINNER: 250
Tennis Masters Cup (indoor hard) WINNER: 750


Where does that leave Roger in the fight to keep the #1 ranking?

Well, here are the stats for 2007 alone:

Rogers total for 2007: 2255 points
Nadals total for 2007: 2675 points


Roger started the year out in peak form and swept the competition away in the Australian Open. However, since then his form has been shaky. He lost a lot of points by going out early in Indian Wells and Miami – two TMS tournaments that he usually wins. This has put Nadal ahead for the year by 420 points.

But can Nadal hang on to the lead to take the #1 spot away from Roger before the end of the year? If Roger can avoid a bad result at RG, he should still have all the cards on his hands with the grass, fast US hardcourt season and indoor seasons coming up. However, Nadal will do better after wimbledon than he did last year, especially seeing as he is planning to play more clay tournaments in the summer.

Speaking purely hypothetically, Federer could lose his ranking as early as after Wimbledon. However that would require Federer to lose first round in RG, Halle and Wimbledon, as well as Nadal winning RG, Queens and Wimbledon.

I believe the most realistic scenario is that Federer will retain the #1 ranking throughout the year, but that it's gonna be much much closer than last year.

:wavey:
The fact that Rafa Nadal has more points so far in 2007 is reason for concern:eek:
...
However with FED`s emphatic Hamburg victory it looks like he`s in good shape for the fight:cool:

>>>
This year I expect a close race for #1 coming down to TMC Shanghai;)
 
#4 ·
Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1

It's still clay season, and that is Nadal's big strong point. There is no surprise that he has amassed a huge point buildup here. I defer judgement on Roger's "situation" until Halle + Wimbledon + a few summer tuneups are out of the way.
GO ROGER!!!!
 
#5 ·
Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1

Lets assume Nadal takes down RG and Fed comes runner up. That would give Nadal a 720 point lead going in to Federer's half of the year. My own personal opinion is that won't be enough for Nadal. I don't see Nadal reaching the final of Wimbledon but I see Federer winning it. That would probably put the two about even going in to the hardcourt season. Maybe Nadal can keep pace in the AMS events and so forth but the USO certianly favours Roger. Then comes indoor season and TMC all of which I trust Roger will get big results in, especially if his #1 status requires it.

What I'm saying is that Fed is still favourite for the race. If he fails to reach the finals of RG then Nadal will have serious and big chances.
 
#7 ·
Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1

What I'm saying is that Fed is still favourite for the race. If he fails to reach the finals of RG then Nadal will have serious and big chances.
This depends on how Nadal does, though.

If Federer fails to reach the RG finals but wins Wimbledon and Nadal the reverse, then anything can happen in the hardcourt season. No one predicted that Federer would flunk the IW/M run so poorly, and this can happen to Nadal, it can happen to Federer, or both, in the summer swing. It is really not possible to say anything right now.
 
#10 ·
Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1

I cant see Nadal putting up enough points the second half of the season for a real fight. Last year he complained of being tired after his great run off form, I think the same is probably going to happen this year.
 
#12 ·
Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1

I cant see Nadal putting up enough points the second half of the season for a real fight. Last year he complained of being tired after his great run off form, I think the same is probably going to happen this year.

Based on Nadal`s hardcourt form at Indian Wells TMS this year-->> where he crushed both Roddick & Djokovic, then it looks like he`s becoming a better all-court player;)

***Expect RAFA to push FED harder for the #1 ranking this year than in previous years;)

Seriously wouldn`t be surprised if #1 is decided at Shanghai TMC~~ thankfully played on a very fast indoor court:cool:
 
#18 ·
Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1

Clay season is going to end soon.

I think Roger won't lose his no.1 spot to anyone this year.
 
#19 ·
Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1

*UPDATED WITH NADALS POINTS*

Roger Federers points scored in 2007:
Australian Open (hard) WINNER: 1000
Dubai (hard) WINNER: 300
TMS Indian Wells (hard) R64: 5
TMS Miami (hard) R16: 75

TMS Monte Carlo (clay) FINALIST: 350
TMS Rome (clay) R16: 75

TMS Hamburg (clay) WINNER: 500


Rafael Nadals points scored in 2007:
Chennai (hard) SF: 75
Sydney (hard) R32: 0
Australian Open (hard) QF: 250
Dubai (hard) QF: 75
TMS Indian Wells (hard) WINNER: 500
TMS Miami (hard) QF: 125

TMS Monte Carlo (clay) WINNER: 500
Barcelona (clay) WINNER: 300
TMS Rome (clay) WINNER: 500

TMS Hamburg (clay) FINALIST: 350



Rogers total for 2007: 2255 points
Nadals total for 2007: 2675 points

.

From TMS Indian Wells --> TMS Rome... FED lost a lot of ground to RAFA:sad:

*FED accumulated just 505-points during this stretch:eek:
*RAFA accumulated a huge 1925-points over the same stretch:devil:


...During the first 4-TMS events of 07 FED put himself on the backfoot with early exits~~> especially Indian Wells & Miami losses to Canas were a blow, thereby improving Nadal`s chances of getting #1 dramatically:sad:
 
#21 ·
Re: Federers ranking points and the fight to remain at #1

the record is important, but I think Roger is not play tennis only for break the record~!!!:)

GO Roger!!!! It's Show time!!:devil: :devil: :devil:
He's already got the record for consecutive weeks at #1. There's still a LOOOOONG was to go to the record for most weeks at #1 overall.
 
#26 ·
Re: Federer vs Nadal ranking points (First post always updated)

Assume the worst case scenario : TFA wins IW, 3 Masters on clay and FO. He will have 600 ponts in the race and 3000 points in the entry ranking. He usually gets at least to the quarters in GS tournaments, that will give him another 750 ranking points. He'll get appr 700-1000 points from optional events. It's 4400- 4700 points in total without Shanghai, Montreal, Cincy, Miami, Madrid, Paris. So, to stay No1 at the end of the year Federer has to get appr 6000+ points. :eek:
Well, the worst case scenario has arrived. The only difference is that he won 2 Masters and made 1 final, but he also won Barcelona.
 
#28 ·
Re: Federer vs Nadal ranking points (First post always updated)

Thank you for undating, BlueSwan.

Thankfully as Roger managed to win Hamburg and reach to the finals of MC and RG during clay season, he put himself in a better position to save his ranking. Otherwise, it would be a very very difficult task for him to catch up Nadal for the rest of the season. So I think this situation is not the worst. IMO, performing well at Wimbledon and USO will be a key. Also he should avoid to exit early in big tournaments(ala IW and Miami :mad: ).
 
#29 ·
Re: Federer vs Nadal ranking points (First post always updated)

I still believe that it will be virtually impossible for Nadal to ever go above 6500 points, meaning that if Roger can stay above that he'll remain #1.
 
#32 ·
Re: Federer vs Nadal ranking points (First post always updated)

Let's not forget the risk of injuries. Roger has been exceptionally injury-free over the last few years. Even a small injury at a bad time to easily cost him the #1 ranking.
 
#33 ·
Re: Federer vs Nadal ranking points (First post always updated)

With Roger having decided not to defend his 225 points at Halle, this unfortunately makes the gap narrower and Nadals lead for 2007 bigger (given that Nadal actually plays Queens).
 
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