Are we still updating this thread with working our possible permutations that could see Roger edge towards the top rank again? If so, it is worth noting that Rafa cannot add to his Grand Slam points any more this year. Of course Roger could potentially make up some lost ground at the FO, WIM and USO, but he could lose 1280 points here at the AO too.
Given Fed's light schedule (I'm still angry with him for deciding not to participate in Monte Carlo), it will be imperative to do well at the remaining Slams and Masters until Wimbledon / the US Open series if he has ambitions to surpass Sampras as the player with the most weeks ranked at #1. He cannot just rely on Rafa to slip up - bear in mind that Rafa actually defended all of his points from the AO last year.
Well post-Wimbledon Roger boasts a +1830 lead over Nadal including the Australian up and until this stage. If Roger were to win tonight this would increase to +2310, and the Championship would give him a +3110 lead.
I don't want to jump the gun but any of these scenarios are quite positive, especially the second two.
In addition post-AO (and after a decent rest) Rog has Dubai (worth 500 pts) before both he and Rafa play Indian Wells and Miami. Given Roger's form over the last 6-months I would expect him to outperform Nadal.
Going into the clay season a decent estimate could be a +3000 lead (if all went superbly this could be nudging around the +4000 mark) which would give him a good buffer to defend against the inevitable shortfalls (as compared to Rafa) in the clay season.
In sum, much depends on his performance in the next few days and then in Spring... he has the potential to gain ALOT. His performances at Roland Garros and Wimbledon will need to improve in relation to Nadal. In my opinion #1 is doable - Fed now has a >50% chance.
please win AO