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post #571 of 985 (permalink) Old 06-28-2013, 10:45 AM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

Today a day with good matches and maybe some upsets but I don't see anything clear. Three interesting matches where I won't bet:

Kubot can make the things difficult to Paire, the frenchman has not played well on grass. However, the H2H is 4-0 for Paire (all the four matches played in 2012 and 2013, so they are recent) and Benoit aims to reach the second week of a Grand Slam. He has a promising career. Kubot's play fits more with grass than Paire's game but I think it won't be enough.

From the other side, I see Janowicz favourite against Almagro but I think that it is a risky match too. Janowicz is capable of the best and the worst. His game on grass is better than Almagro's game. In serves I don't see any difference, both are great servers, but in rallies I think that Almagro likes more the high bounce and Janowicz is more get used to this conditions. But I don't feel confortable betting for Janowicz, he is not a mind matured tennis player today.

I think that bookies overrate Stakhovsky. His defeat over Federer was super but if the match against Melzer happened in 1st round probably Melzer would have been the favourite. Stakhovsky played against Federer with inspiration more than a solid gameplay. The serve and volley strategy is very effective if you do it in the proper way but is not as consistent as a baseline play for example. But I don't feel confortable betting on Melzer because Jurgen is playing very bad these days, losing almost all the matches in the clay court season and almost losing against Ghedin in Halle. He won two good matches in Wimbledon but in my opinion Melzer is not a reliable player.

But if you want to bet on these matches I recommend Kubot, Janowicz and/or Melzer. My bet today will be:

Ernests Gulbis - Fernando Verdasco
Pick: Fernando Verdasco
Odd: 1.29
Stake: 2'75/10 (11,813.66*0,1*0,275... 325 credits)

Gulbis is playing well in 2013 but I think that it is a little bit overrated on this match. Despite the fact that he is an offensive baseliner with very impressive shots (ball bashing very good if he is on his peak), grass doesn't fit with his game. It can be shocking because grass is a fast surface, but the problem is the bounce and the fast that you have to hit the ball. The Gulbis forehand shot requires time to be executed properly. It can be better on courts with high bounce, but we have seen lot of errors from him in all the grass court season. Picking on Verdasco can be very risky if we look at how he started the 2013 season, but lately he is playing widely better than before. He is peaking in this important part of the season and in Grand Slams he almost always gets a good result and plays very solid. Definitely Nando likes the best of 5 matches. He changed his racket and lately he is finding consistency in his game. He beat Malisse and Benneteau in Wimbledon, two matches where Fernando was the underdog. In addition he had a tight match with Feliciano in Eastbourne, which is a great thing despite the fact that he lost seeing how good Feliciano is playing on grass this year. Maybe if Gulbis is on the zone he can be definitely more powerful than Verdasco, but I think that in average the match is tight and it will be tough for both players. Fernando is a headcase but Gulbis when he is down in the scoreline sometimes gets crazy. The Latvian has a lot of quality but at this moment it is not reliable, and Fernando has more experience in this kind of Grand Slam matches. I am not saying that Verdasco is the favourite but his odd is got to try and bet on him.


Last edited by VamosRafaNadal; 06-29-2013 at 03:30 PM.
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post #572 of 985 (permalink) Old 06-29-2013, 03:29 PM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by VamosRafaNadal View Post
Jeremy Chardy - Jan-Lennard Struff
Pick: Jan-Lennard Struff
Odd: 2.80
Stake: 1/10 (11,192.97*0,1*0,1... 112 credits)

I think that in this match Chardy is too favourite and Struff is too underdog. It should be more equal in my opinion, something like odd of 0,55 on Chardy and 2 on Struff. Struff has played well in the last few weeks and he is a qualifier in Wimbledon so he has played more matches and more time than Chardy on Wimbledon courts. The Frenchman has a very aggresive game that makes him an unconsistent player capable of the best and the worst. Chardy is the favourite, this is clear, but Struff can make a good performance so it worth the credits to bet on him with low stake.
[/COLOR]
Struff did a goot much but wasn't enough. Anyway, I am happy with my bet because definitely Struff wasn't hammered or defeated in straight sets as the odds suggested.

Quote:
Originally Posted by VamosRafaNadal View Post
Today a day with good matches and maybe some upsets but I don't see anything clear. Three interesting matches where I won't bet:

Kubot can make the things difficult to Paire, the frenchman has not played well on grass. However, the H2H is 4-0 for Paire (all the four matches played in 2012 and 2013, so they are recent) and Benoit aims to reach the second week of a Grand Slam. He has a promising career. Kubot's play fits more with grass than Paire's game but I think it won't be enough.

From the other side, I see Janowicz favourite against Almagro but I think that it is a risky match too. Janowicz is capable of the best and the worst. His game on grass is better than Almagro's game. In serves I don't see any difference, both are great servers, but in rallies I think that Almagro likes more the high bounce and Janowicz is more get used to this conditions. But I don't feel confortable betting for Janowicz, he is not a mind matured tennis player today.

I think that bookies overrate Stakhovsky. His defeat over Federer was super but if the match against Melzer happened in 1st round probably Melzer would have been the favourite. Stakhovsky played against Federer with inspiration more than a solid gameplay. The serve and volley strategy is very effective if you do it in the proper way but is not as consistent as a baseline play for example. But I don't feel confortable betting on Melzer because Jurgen is playing very bad these days, losing almost all the matches in the clay court season and almost losing against Ghedin in Halle. He won two good matches in Wimbledon but in my opinion Melzer is not a reliable player.

But if you want to bet on these matches I recommend Kubot, Janowicz and/or Melzer. My bet today will be:

Ernests Gulbis - Fernando Verdasco
Pick: Fernando Verdasco
Odd: 1.29
Stake: 2'75/10 (11,813.66*0,1*0,275... 325 credits)

Gulbis is playing well in 2013 but I think that it is a little bit overrated on this match. Despite the fact that he is an offensive baseliner with very impressive shots (ball bashing very good if he is on his peak), grass doesn't fit with his game. It can be shocking because grass is a fast surface, but the problem is the bounce and the fast that you have to hit the ball. The Gulbis forehand shot requires time to be executed properly. It can be better on courts with high bounce, but we have seen lot of errors from him in all the grass court season. Picking on Verdasco can be very risky if we look at how he started the 2013 season, but lately he is playing widely better than before. He is peaking in this important part of the season and in Grand Slams he almost always gets a good result and plays very solid. Definitely Nando likes the best of 5 matches. He changed his racket and lately he is finding consistency in his game. He beat Malisse and Benneteau in Wimbledon, two matches where Fernando was the underdog. In addition he had a tight match with Feliciano in Eastbourne, which is a great thing despite the fact that he lost seeing how good Feliciano is playing on grass this year. Maybe if Gulbis is on the zone he can be definitely more powerful than Verdasco, but I think that in average the match is tight and it will be tough for both players. Fernando is a headcase but Gulbis when he is down in the scoreline sometimes gets crazy. The Latvian has a lot of quality but at this moment it is not reliable, and Fernando has more experience in this kind of Grand Slam matches. I am not saying that Verdasco is the favourite but his odd is got to try and bet on him.
All my 3 pronostics of the 3 matches where I didn't bet were right, a shame that I didn't bet but theyre were risky IMO Well done Verdasco, as I said he peaks in Grand Slams and is more all-round player than Gulbis, who is a little bit overrated these days and whose shots are not as effective as bookies thing on grass despite the fact that he is a definitely a more aggresive player than Fernando.

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post #573 of 985 (permalink) Old 06-29-2013, 03:44 PM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

Thursday: +340 : Lost a big amount on Blake, but covered the exact same amount with a huge bet on Chardy. Sijsling and Chardy were good bets. Sijsling now 4-0 with 3 of them being odds off bets.

Friday: -2396 : Lost on Sijsling, Troicki. Won on Verdasco, Kubot. Lost big on Monaco. Kubot now 10-3.

Wimbledon: -6536.

Don't like the way this has been going till now. Have had a sizeable profit on each of my previous 5 grass court tournaments. 4 last two weeks and Wimbledon last year.

Saturday: Big bet on Berdych, small on Chardy and Zemlja

Last edited by Pratik; 06-29-2013 at 03:54 PM.
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post #574 of 985 (permalink) Old 07-01-2013, 10:34 AM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

I am really not clear about this. But seems very much interesting game. Can anyone please help me to be understood.

Federer is The Greatest of All Time
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post #575 of 985 (permalink) Old 07-03-2013, 06:36 PM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

Gasquet in Gasquet Tomic was way too short, but I just couldn't get myself to bet against him.

M: -100. Won on Kubot, he improves to 11-3. Lost on Melzer and Haas. Odds were really great on both Melzer and Haas.

W: -4500. Lost on Kubot, Berdych, Ferrer. No wins. Kubot goes to 11-4

Wimbledon: -10,525. Terrible. First negative grass tournament and so much negative.

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post #576 of 985 (permalink) Old 07-03-2013, 09:37 PM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

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Originally Posted by Pratik View Post
Gasquet in Gasquet Tomic was way too short, but I just couldn't get myself to bet against him.

M: -100. Won on Kubot, he improves to 11-3. Lost on Melzer and Haas. Odds were really great on both Melzer and Haas.

W: -4500. Lost on Kubot, Berdych, Ferrer. No wins. Kubot goes to 11-4

Wimbledon: -10,525. Terrible. First negative grass tournament and so much negative.



I hope you will have a good finish to the tournament.

For me, my tendinitis has prevented further bets. Haven't made a single one since Wednesday and are thus stuck on minus. I have a strong feeling it would be even worse if I had bet in normal fashion, as I've been surprised plenty by the results.

Hope for a comeback next week, will rest my hands until then.
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post #577 of 985 (permalink) Old 07-04-2013, 04:25 PM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

Uh, I should have learnt by now. When I go bad, I go really bad. Big amounts today on Paes/Stepanek and Bopanna/ERV. Needed either one to win for a day positive. Both lose in 5 close sets. -7k today. -17.5k overall. Second worst tournament. Only Rome is slightly worse. Odds not worth it in either of the SFs tomorrow.
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post #578 of 985 (permalink) Old 07-12-2013, 03:51 PM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

Haven't been here for a while.

Nothing much happened in Wimbledon after my last post, a hand injury kept me from the forum. I came back in time to make a winning bet on the final.

This week I've bet on all three tourmanents, not with much success. I'm +566 for Newport (no bets today), -155 for Båstad and -564 for Stuttgart. At least I've won three times on Berlocq and Verdasco, and twice on Mahut, they're starting to climb my personal stats. And I've reached 164 players bet on and 124 won on. My original goal was to win on 100, not I'm hoping 200/150 before the year is over.
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post #579 of 985 (permalink) Old 07-18-2013, 06:23 PM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

Sad to see this thread dead. Only one post in the last two weeks.

I haven't been vBetting too seriously off late. That will probably continue for a while longer, but hopefully not too long. I started using the fantasy betting on BetSec, but I will be discontinuing that shortly and returning here. While I enjoyed betting on spreads and totals instead of just match winner, the overall experience was diminished by the fact that you have to place the same amount(1 unit) on each bet. Multiple bets on the same outcome not permitted, even if the odds(which were periodically updated) have changed.

I finally got around to adding all my remaining bets(about 14 days) to my figures. Updates:

1)Back to a career positive. Sizable one at that.
2)Berdych is at a great -50k and the total amount bet on him is just 56k
3)Lost a bet on Sijsling in this duration after wining my first four on him. Fifth player on whom this has happened, with no player going 5-0. Fish is still at 4-0, but don't know if he is going to come back.
4)Andujar, Haase and Klizan are each at 0-5. No player is or has ever been 0-6.
5)A couple of big bets recently got my total amount bet to seven figures. Currently at 11,75,888
6)Placed my 50th bet on Federer yesterday.
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post #580 of 985 (permalink) Old 07-18-2013, 07:19 PM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

Sad indeed, hopefully things will pick up again

I have not been inactive the past days and can report the following:

1) I too am back to career positive, as of today! Following a good win on Federer. It's not solid, though, I might conceivably be back to negative later today, as I have some Bogota bets open.
2) Federer is back to my most successful player bet on, ahead of Nadal and Robredo. Almagro is still at the bottom, but now that I bet against him all the time he's winning matches again....
3) I have two players who I've bet on six times and who's won all six - Paire and Bautista-Agut. None of them are perfect bet against. My best "both ways" is Montanes, four wins on and three wins against.
4) After I won on Melzer on the 8th attempt, L. Mayer is my current worst with five bets on and no win.
5) My total amount bet is 655252 on 780 bets.
6) I have bet on 169 players and 47 nations, and won something on 129 players and 39 nations.
7) Federer is player bet on most often, 27 times, ahead of Nadal and Djokovic, 18, then Gasquet and Almagro, 16, then Haas and Youzhny 15.
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post #581 of 985 (permalink) Old 07-20-2013, 07:17 AM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

I will try to be a little more active in this thread

This and the last week were very good

Newport -4
Stuttgart +413
Bastad +1088
Hamburg +468
Bogota +1318

Total: +3283

Yo que querría poder contarte que ahí afuera está la vida y solo hay gente que quisiera comprenderte, y abrazarte, y alegrarte y ayudarte siempre.

Pero no, duerme que ahí afuera solo hay monstruos, solo hay gente que te compra y que te vende, que te odia, que te miente, que te roba, que te mata, que te viola y que no siente nada.
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post #582 of 985 (permalink) Old 07-20-2013, 07:24 AM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

Up and down happens quickly. My career plus turned, one again, into minus on Verdasco, but then again to plus on Federer, even with a much more modest bet. He's taken my career total to plus two days in a row

My week so far is quite good:
Hamburg +1462
Bogota +536

Bogota started poorly but now I'm on an 8-match winning streak specific for the tournament Didn't believe in it much, though, so kept the stakes low.
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post #583 of 985 (permalink) Old 07-21-2013, 06:29 PM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

Delbonis cost me big. Lost 70k on Federer and 10k on Verdasco. Also lost 10k on Anderson. Other than these three, had a really good week.

Bogota: +11,845
Hamburg: -52,193
Total: -40,348

Federer was clearly feeling bad that Berdych had taken such a huge lead as my worst bet on player. They are neck and neck now.

Upwards and onwards. Have some catching up to do
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post #584 of 985 (permalink) Old 07-21-2013, 06:33 PM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

After Federer took me to career plus two days in a row, he then took me to minus the third day. Luckily I didn't bet too much so he's still positive overall.

Total for the week:
Hamburg: +1022
Bogota: +336

Career total: -328

I did, however, manage to get more plus tournaments than minus ones. 18 with plus, 17 with minus (including unfinished DC 2013). First time that is positive since March
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post #585 of 985 (permalink) Old 07-21-2013, 06:40 PM
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Re: *** ~~~ Betting shrine ~~~ ***

Quote:
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I did, however, manage to get more plus tournaments than minus ones. 18 with plus, 17 with minus (including unfinished DC 2013). First time that is positive since March
For this year(haven't made these figures for last year),

Tournaments in positive: 22
Tournaments in negative: 19

(Only because 7 of last 9 tournaments have been positive).
Each DC round counted as a different tournament.
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