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Thread: Freaky Friday
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post #4 of (permalink) Old 08-12-2005, 11:47 AM
country flag NewTennisFan
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 277
Re: Freaky Friday

I'm still thinking over what you said Skel, and I'll get back to you on that.

But there is something on my mind:

Call me crazy, call me absolutely OFF MY FREAKIN' MIND, but I think Puerta can take Nadal today!!!


Well, here's why. Before this tournament had even begun, people were writing off Puerta. "He can't play on hard courts", was the general tone. Though, the fact of the matter is that...hey...he hadn't even PLAYED in an ATP tournament on hard court since 2003! Yeah, sure, we have previous years to go on, but what we must remember is that in more recent times, Puerta only really started getting good results on ANY court this season! Do his poor hard court results from back in 2003 really stand as a proof that he can't play well on hard? Well, if they were supposed to, then he's disproved it this very week. He's played very well, beating three men whom everybody thought would prove too much for him on the surface.

Statistically, over the course of this tournament Puerta can match Nadal percentage-wise in points won on first serve; he's won a higher percentage of points on second serve; he's managed 20 service aces (compared with Nadal's 3!), and has a far superior record on break point conversions.

Now, you'll probably all point out: "but Nadal's opponents have been far more challenging!" I think this is definitely a very important consideration. Had just about anybody else in the quater-finals swapped places with Puerta in the last three rounds, you'd imagine that they all would've been obvious favorites (compared to Mariano, who's been underdog each time). But I dunno.

Does anybody think that there's a good enough chance to make it worth placing a bet on Puerta's long odds?
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