Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-26-2017, 11:44 AM Thread Starter
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Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

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‘Next weeks will be extremely important with Shanghai, Basel, maybe Paris and ATP Finals in London,’ he told Blick.
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And Federer admitted the chase for world No. 1 has become a ‘secondary’ goal as he focuses on his own fitness, particularly in light of the back injury that hampered him in Montreal and forced him to skip Cincinnati.

‘It [the year-end world No. 1 ranking] became a little bit secondary for me as Nadal got far away,’ he added.

‘I will focus on myself and I will play only when I am ready.
Roger Federer hints at schedule change amid Rafael Nadal chase | Metro News
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post #2 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-26-2017, 12:13 PM
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Re: Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

Federer hints at schedule change amid Nadal chase for year-end world No.1
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post #3 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-26-2017, 12:13 PM
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Re: Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

Not totally unexpected especially in light of his back problems a few weeks ago - he doesn't want to strain his body.

Having said that I'm not yet convinced he will skip Paris if he is healthy. If Roger wins Shanghai and Basel (and he'll probably be the favourite for both) and Nadal losses early in Shanghai and before the finals in Beijing, Rafa's lead will be cut down significantly by about 50%.

Realistically, for Roger to be the Year End Number 1 he either needs to go undefeated the rest of the season, or hope Nadal losses early in most of the remaining tournaments. Whilst I wouldn't put money on either, given their historic form during the fast/indoor hardcourt swing in previous years it is definitely possible.
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post #4 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-26-2017, 12:22 PM
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Re: Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

I am very skeptical about Fed playing all tournaments he has in the schedule. He will probably skip one or maybe two (Paris and Shanghai). Nadal looks much more healthy than Fed .. so no.1 battle is over for this year. But ATP Finals will be very very interesting.
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post #5 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-26-2017, 12:25 PM
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Re: Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

I think YE#1 is out of the question. I suspect Federer will merely try to close the gap to around 500 points come the end of the season and then hope to maintain more of his points from Jan-March next year than Nadal to sneak to No.1. If this happens I can see him playing a couple of clay events just to take the No.1 til the end of Wimbledon, I don't think he'll have a long stretch as No.1 but just 4-6 weeks puts the 302 week total further out of reach and would allow him to take the longest gap between first becoming No.1 and last time becoming No.1.

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post #6 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-26-2017, 01:35 PM
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Re: Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

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Originally Posted by Rrobba View Post
Not totally unexpected especially in light of his back problems a few weeks ago - he doesn't want to strain his body.

Having said that I'm not yet convinced he will skip Paris if he is healthy. If Roger wins Shanghai and Basel (and he'll probably be the favourite for both) and Nadal losses early in Shanghai and before the finals in Beijing, Rafa's lead will be cut down significantly by about 50%.

Realistically, for Roger to be the Year End Number 1 he either needs to go undefeated the rest of the season, or hope Nadal losses early in most of the remaining tournaments. Whilst I wouldn't put money on either, given their historic form during the fast/indoor hardcourt swing in previous years it is definitely possible.
Yeah seems very unlikely for Federer if he's banking on Nadal losing early.
Nadal was horrible at 2009 World Tour Finals (and skipped 2008wtf, 2012wtf and 2016wtf), but he made the Final at 2010wtf and 2013wtf and went 3-0 in the round robin of 2015wtf (by thrashing Murray and Wawrinka), so he's one of the better players in that event.

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I think YE#1 is out of the question. I suspect Federer will merely try to close the gap to around 500 points come the end of the season and then hope to maintain more of his points from Jan-March next year than Nadal to sneak to No.1. If this happens I can see him playing a couple of clay events just to take the No.1 til the end of Wimbledon, I don't think he'll have a long stretch as No.1 but just 4-6 weeks puts the 302 week total further out of reach and would allow him to take the longest gap between first becoming No.1 and last time becoming No.1.
The AO will be the key, because Federer doesn't usually win that, and he needed 3 five-setters to win it this year (which was aided by his long break in 2016, which he won't have next time), so Federer maybe loses points at the AO.
Sure Nadal could too, but Nadal's done a great job at making the AO Final over the years (2009, 2012, 2014 and 2017) so I'd think Nadal has a big chance of at least making the Final to keep those points.

And Federer may struggle to win Indian Wells and Miami again, we'll see, especially if Djokovic is back in any kind of form.
I'd put money on Nadal winning most of the clay events as usual, regardless of Djokovic being back.
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post #7 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-27-2017, 02:21 PM
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Re: Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

Well depending on what happens between now and FO, Federer can actually snag it for a little while. He just needs some good results from now until then, and Nadal some average ones. He can't get it this year as it it's practically impossible unless Nadal stops playing this year.

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post #8 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-27-2017, 02:31 PM
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Re: Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

Roger keeping it real. The YE No. 1 was in all likelihood decided at the USO. It makes no sense to go all out now, since it's out of his hands.

Even if he won all remaining tourneys (which won't happen, he's no Murray-like juggernaut), it's not a done deal. It depends on Nadal's performance - only if at the same time Nadal repeats his 2016 results or something similar, it's still on. But I wouldn't count on it.

With the YE No. 1 all but gone, chances to ever get the top spot again are tiny, since Roger defends most of his points in the first 3 months of the year, i.e. earlier than Nadal unfortunately. Nadal is therefore likely to keep it for quite some time.
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post #9 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-28-2017, 02:28 AM
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Re: Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

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Originally Posted by Secondeuce View Post
Roger keeping it real. The YE No. 1 was in all likelihood decided at the USO. It makes no sense to go all out now, since it's out of his hands.

Even if he won all remaining tourneys (which won't happen, he's no Murray-like juggernaut), it's not a done deal. It depends on Nadal's performance - only if at the same time Nadal repeats his 2016 results or something similar, it's still on. But I wouldn't count on it.

With the YE No. 1 all but gone, chances to ever get the top spot again are tiny, since Roger defends most of his points in the first 3 months of the year, i.e. earlier than Nadal unfortunately. Nadal is therefore likely to keep it for quite some time.
That's pretty much it, a lot will depend on how Rafa performs in the asian swing. If the does well in Beijing and Shangai the race will be over.



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post #10 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-28-2017, 02:59 AM
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Re: Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

I think Roger for a change is playing worse in the latter part of the season.
Some have compared his US Open struggles to his 5 setters in AO.
They aren't similar. At AO, he was seeded 17 and was facing top seeds from R4 onwards. He was seeded 3 at USO. So at USO he was struggling against lower ranked players.
And at AO Nishikori for example, was playing lights out. At USO Roger was playing bad.

Hope Fed finds his zen as he usually does this time of the season. He should be freshest among top players.
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post #11 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-28-2017, 03:23 AM
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Re: Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

Such a shame Fed isn't #1 or even close to it after winning 2 slams, 2 MS, 1 MS final and Halle this year at the age of 35/36. And some other undeserving player who just won on clay, didn't win a single HC MS and then vultured USO out of nowhere has locked up #1. Both of his slams cancelled out and #1 gone. Beyond unfair and too sad.

Hope Fed can salvage his year now by winning WTF. If dull wins WTF, then this year will go from a dream to a total nightmare.

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post #12 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-28-2017, 12:09 PM
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Re: Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

Nadal also has two Slams, two Masters, another Masters final and a 500. Difference is he bothered to play all 4 Slams and made a final at a third so if you want to blame anyone, blame Federer.

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post #13 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-28-2017, 01:04 PM
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Re: Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

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The AO will be the key, because Federer doesn't usually win that, and he needed 3 five-setters to win it this year (which was aided by his long break in 2016, which he won't have next time), so Federer maybe loses points at the AO.
Sure Nadal could too, but Nadal's done a great job at making the AO Final over the years (2009, 2012, 2014 and 2017) so I'd think Nadal has a big chance of at least making the Final to keep those points.

And Federer may struggle to win Indian Wells and Miami again, we'll see, especially if Djokovic is back in any kind of form.
I'd put money on Nadal winning most of the clay events as usual, regardless of Djokovic being back.
It will be but Federer over his career has a strong record of reaching at least the SF there; whilst Nadal has traditionally struggled to back up multi-slam seasons with another strong season (excluding his usual clay haul). I would suspect both players to lose points in the early stage of the season, even though I do cast doubt over Djokovic/Murray's ability to come out the blocks flying a la Fedal.

My point is that Nadal will still probably rout the clay season but Roger is defending 0 points there. If Roger is close to Nadal in the rankings come the start of clay season I strongly think he will play a couple of events, even if he won't win them, just to nab the No.1 for the last time!
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post #14 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-28-2017, 03:22 PM
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Re: Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

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Such a shame Fed isn't #1 or even close to it after winning 2 slams, 2 MS, 1 MS final and Halle this year at the age of 35/36. And some other undeserving player who just won on clay, didn't win a single HC MS and then vultured USO out of nowhere has locked up #1. Both of his slams cancelled out and #1 gone. Beyond unfair and too sad.

Hope Fed can salvage his year now by winning WTF. If dull wins WTF, then this year will go from a dream to a total nightmare.
Federer didn't win any clay masters, and didn't even show up at Roland Garros, whereas Nadal showed surface versatility by reaching the 4th Round of Wimbledon (and hitting 77 winners and 17 unforced errors in the loss), and won the US Open and made the Final of AO and Miami.
So Nadal showed skill on 3 different surfaces - clay, hardcourt and grass - whereas Federer didn't even prove he can even walk on clay let alone win matches.
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post #15 of 27 (permalink) Old 09-28-2017, 03:43 PM
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Re: Roger: Year-end world No. 1 ranking secondary, Nadal far away

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It will be but Federer over his career has a strong record of reaching at least the SF there; whilst Nadal has traditionally struggled to back up multi-slam seasons with another strong season (excluding his usual clay haul). I would suspect both players to lose points in the early stage of the season, even though I do cast doubt over Djokovic/Murray's ability to come out the blocks flying a la Fedal.

My point is that Nadal will still probably rout the clay season but Roger is defending 0 points there. If Roger is close to Nadal in the rankings come the start of clay season I strongly think he will play a couple of events, even if he won't win them, just to nab the No.1 for the last time!
Yeah it'll be really fascinating to see what happens at the AO.
If Nadal increases his lead at the AO, then its unlikely Federer will even play a clay tournament.
Whereas if Federer wins the AO again, then he may try for the #1 during clay season.

Nadal didn't do well at 2011 AO after winning 3 consecutive slams in 2010, but it was truly bad luck and not related to form.
The worst thing I've ever seen in tennis was when Nadal played Ferrer at 2011 Australian Open, Nadal tore hamstring in the first few minutes of the match and then dragged his leg for the whole match and couldn't run fast or change direction properly, and he was going for THE RAFA SLAM.
He's got horrible luck at the AO, so the AO is always the most suspenseful event of the year from a Nadal fan perspective.

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Federer is not 31, troll, he's 36 so quit comparing him to dull.
For many years I've heard people all over the world note that Nadal's body was significantly older than his age, and I think they are right.
Plus its obvious that Nadal spends way more hours on court than Federer per year (apart from the years when Nadal is out with injury), so it'd be interesting to see how many hours each player has played in their careers.
And we know Nadal spends a lot more hours training than Federer.
So I see Nadal and Federer as the same age physically.
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