Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG? - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 05:41 PM Thread Starter
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Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

I think the general perception is that Federer can't beat Nadal at RG because of the BH abuse. No matter what Fed did, it wasn't good enough but a large majority of them also think it was because Fed choked.

What do you think? Was it always mission impossible for Fed to beat Nadal at RG since 2005?

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post #2 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 06:09 PM
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Re: Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

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I think the general perception is that Federer can't beat Nadal at RG because of the BH abuse. No matter what Fed did, it wasn't good enough but a large majority of them also think it was because Fed choked.

What do you think? Was it always mission impossible for Fed to beat Nadal at RG since 2005?
I think it was mission impossible for Roger.

Here are reasons.
First of all, we have some other examples where some players are trying to abuse flaws of other players but not always its successuful.Why some other ppl are not trying to use Roger BH vs him? Other lefties?
Because they dont have quality for that.
Rafa is ATG player, with ATG game, with ATG forehand and almost all other shots.All of that + Rogers bh + clay as Rafaels fav surface + 3 of 5 format = Rogers not possible to win him at RG.
I mean, we saw that Rafa was better even on HC against Roger untill 2017 (which we can take as exception and not the constantity).I think H2H on HC slams are still on Rafael side...
Even on grass young Rafa played 3 WB finals in a row with peak Fed on his surface and have decent 2-1, where one of his losses went to 5 sets...So its mix of Rafas quality and Rogers bh outside of clay, and on clay those 2 factors + clay factor

We could see that prime/peak Novak couldnt beat prime/peak Rafa 3 years at Roland Garros and his play style is much more dangerous for Rafa, and he ofc is ATG player him self.

I honestly think its safe to say that Rafa at RG (when he is healthy) is the closest thing to invincible in all sports, ever.
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post #3 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 06:16 PM
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Re: Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

If in 2011 he coludnt beat Rafa at RG,he will never beat him.
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post #4 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 06:20 PM
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Re: Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

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If Ljubicic was Freddy's coach in 2005, would he have beaten Ralph at RG?
No.
+ In 2005 Fed was in better shape and a lot faster than now,and he still lost to Rafa.
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post #5 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 06:23 PM
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Re: Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

You are over overestimating Ljubicic influence on Rogers game...Only if Rafa was closer to his 80% then 70% on AO he would won even that...

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post #6 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 06:28 PM
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Re: Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

possible but unlikely..if he can lose games he can lose sets. if he can lose sets he can lose matches. it's not impossible unless you don't understand LOGIC. this vamosrafa thinks rafa is a deity

so if federer played him 100-999(insert times here) in 2006-7 and 2011 he would have won at least one. I think it's more about the stamina...as everyone would be tired in a 5th set(but nadal has near infinite energy at RG=king kong)

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post #7 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 06:29 PM
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Re: Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

Only in the first year.

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post #8 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 06:30 PM
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Re: Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

none of you understands what POSSIBLE means
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justin bieber is not the best in history.
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post #9 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 06:31 PM
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Re: Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

If 2006/2007 Federer played 2015 Nadal - of course he could. Or if 06/07 Federer played 2011 Nadal with those sped-up balls - tough, but not improbable. Otherwise, no (sad).
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post #10 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 06:33 PM
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Re: Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

Nadal was not great on clay from 05-07 (short balls, moon balls, no serve). Nothing compared to the Nadal from 2008 and this decade. He was very beatable from 05-07 and Federer couldn't even beat that version of Nadal.

So no, Federer never had a chance.
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post #11 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 06:34 PM
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Re: Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

Well obviously yes - and I say this as a Fraud hater - Just look at the betting odds (off the top of my head as I've looked at this several times)

2005 Federer was the favorite like 58%-42%
2006 Federer was like a 40-60 underdog
2007 Federer was like a 33-67 underdog
2008 Federer was like a 25-75 underdog
2011 Federer was like a 30-70 underdog.

Betting odds are usually very accurate because several million of dollars are bet on huge matches like these (GS finals)

So the probability of Nadal winning all the matches was roughly .42*.6*.67*.75*.7 = ~9%

People don't understand the meaning of "possible". Even in matches this year Haase vs Nadal or Basilashvili v Nadal at RG, Haase and Basilashvili had like a 2-2.5% chance according to the market. So obviously Federer would have a chance, with Nadal being a favorite of course

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post #12 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 06:38 PM
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Re: Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

2015?

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post #13 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 06:41 PM
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Re: Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

Considering that Federer at his peak was unable to even make it to the fifth against 05-07 Nadal who hadn't hit his peak yet, I can say there was/is zero chance for Federer to beat Nadal at RG. I mean Federer was struggling to beat Nadal on hardcourts and grasscourts, how can he beat the bull raging with all that red around him?
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post #14 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 06:46 PM
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Re: Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

People don't understand the meaning of "possible"


yep impossible means if they played an infinite number of times at the speed of light..fed would never win. which is ridiculous as some of these would include nadal getting injured, breaking his legs, dying on court, getting roasted and so on.

but i think nadal would lose something like one out of every 50 to 100 matches against fed at RG. i could be wrong, it could be each 20 or maybe each 200. but impossible means INFINITE which is more than millions, billions, trillions... go to school mtf

justin bieber is not the best in history.
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post #15 of 119 (permalink) Old 09-25-2017, 06:49 PM
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Re: Was it ever possible for Federer to beat Nadal at RG?

Well, in 2006 in Roma he had match points and it was Bo5, so I don't see why not at RG. If he had won that match his belief would have been greater for RG. In 2007 he could have won had he been more clutch in BPs, and in 2011 Nadal wasn't playing well, but after he chocked the 1st set it was NID. He should have done better in 2005-2007, Puerta came closer to beating him than him, he couldn't even take it to 5 once. At the level Nadal was playing in 2010 or 2008 it was impossible, but in 05-07 and 2011 he was beatable.
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