New GOAT Rankings - September 2017 - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 02:53 AM Thread Starter
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New GOAT Rankings - September 2017

After Slasher's devastating announcement that he will no longer update his GOAT list, I became motivated to create my own. I have created two lists for the Open Era only.

Methodology:
The focus was to try and be as objective as humanly possible.

1. Screening: only players who have won at least 1 grand slam or 1 Masters 10000 are screened in.
2. Criteria were decided such that they were 1) generally recognized as important records, and 2) unambiguously positive/good (example: number of weeks in 2nd place doesn't count as unambiguously good, because 2nd place isn't as good as first), 3) not too nichey (number of slams won without losing a set is somewhat nichey), 4) not based on timing at all (e.g. no number of consecutive titles, or CYGS) and 5) in the Open Era.
3. Two lists are compiled with all the criteria, and each player's score.
4. I have created two lists: The first, which I am calling the "GOAT" list, measures players based on subjective weights of each accomplishment. The weights are based on my best estimate of what most tennis fans would value the most. In the second list, which I am calling the "BOAT" list, I use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to compute a score for each player. The theory here is that the first principal component captures the biggest common factor that make a player excel in all the criteria.
Effectively, the GOAT list has more weight on huge events (Slams, weeks at number 1), and thus it measures greatness based on the criteria that most people deem great. On the other hand, the BOAT list has much more equal weights across the different criteria. As a result, the BOAT list measures a player's ability to perform well across a broad range of criteria - it has less emphasis on Slams.

Criteria for GOAT list:
Number of Grand Slams: 50 points
Number of World Tour Finals: 25 points
Number of Olympic Gold Medals: 15 points
Number of Masters 1000: 10 points
Number of ATP 500 tournaments: 4 points
Number of ATP 250 tournaments: 2 points
Peak Elo rating: 50 points per every standard deviation above the minimum (approximately 50 GOAT points per 135 Elo ranking points above the minimum of 1910)
Winning percentage in Grand Slams: 50 points per standard deviation above the minimum
Winning percentage against Top 5 players: 50 points per standard deviation above the minimum
Total weeks at Number 1: 1 point per week
Number 1 bonus: 50 bonus points to any player who has ever been Number 1

Results: First, the GOAT list:




As for the BOAT list,
Criteria:
Number of Big titles (GS, WTF, Olympic Golds)
Number of Masters 1000
Peak Elo rating: 50 points per every standard deviation above the minimum (approximately 50 GOAT points per 135 Elo ranking points above the minimum of 1910)
Winning percentage in Grand Slams
Winning percentage against Top 5 players
Total weeks at Number 1: 1 point per week


Results: the BOAT list:



Thoughts? Questions?

PS: Nothing is set in stone here. I'm pretty flexible to listen to community feedback. If there are mistakes, let me know. If I'm doing something wrong, or if there's a mistake in the data, I will obviously adjust.

And a HUGE thank you to the people running Ultimate Tennis Statistics for their data!
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Last edited by Fedjokodal; 09-19-2017 at 04:05 AM.
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post #2 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 03:10 AM
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Re: New GOAT Rankings - September 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fedjokodal View Post
After Slasher's devastating announcement that he will no longer update his GOAT list, I became motivated to create my own.

Methodology:
The focus was to try and be as objective as humanly possible.

1. Screening: only players who have won at least 1 grand slam are screened in (sorry, Ferrer!)
2. Criteria were decided such that they were 1) generally recognized as important records, and 2) unambiguously positive/good (example: number of weeks in 2nd place doesn't count as unambiguously good, because 2nd place isn't as good as first), not too nichey
3. A list is compiled with all the criteria, and each player's score.
4. To be objective, I use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to compute a score for each player. The theory here is that the first principal component captures the biggest common factor that make a player excel in all the criteria - the theory is that the biggest common factor is GOATness.

By using PCA, I am not the one determining the weights, or how important each criterion is. I'm letting the data speak, more or less.

Results:
Ranking Player Score
1 Roger Federer 5.89
2 Novak Djokovic 5.45
3 Rafael Nadal 5.17

4 Bjorn Borg 4.71
5 Ivan Lendl 4.57
6 Pete Sampras 4.37
7 Rod Laver 3.62

8 John Mcenroe 3.32
9 Jimmy Connors 3.12
10 Andre Agassi 2.55
11 Boris Becker 2.15
12 Andy Murray 1.64
13 Stefan Edberg 1.12
14 Mats Wilander 0.83
15 Ken Rosewall 0.59
16 John Newcombe 0.44
17 Ilie Nastase 0.39
18 Guillermo Vilas 0.26
19 Gustavo Kuerten 0.13
20 Jim Courier 0.05
21 Arthur Ashe -0.28
22 Lleyton Hewitt -0.33
23 Michael Stich -0.36
24 Andy Roddick -0.51
25 Manuel Orantes -0.62
26 Stan Smith -0.69
27 Marat Safin -0.72
28 Thomas Muster -0.75
29 Yevgeny Kafelnikov -0.87
30 Patrick Rafter -1.01
31 Richard Krajicek -1.03
32 Michael Chang -1.08
33 Goran Ivanisevic -1.11
34 Roscoe Tanner -1.13
35 Juan Carlos Ferrero -1.15
36 Vitas Gerulaitis -1.15
37 Juan Martin Del Potro -1.25
38 Stanislas Wawrinka -1.29
39 Yannick Noah -1.41
40 Sergi Bruguera -1.41
41 Jan Kodes -1.45
42 Marin Cilic -1.56
43 Carlos Moya -1.60
44 Adriano Panatta -1.64
45 Andres Gimeno -1.72
46 Andres Gomez -1.74
47 Pat Cash -1.75
48 Johan Kriek -1.75
49 Petr Korda -1.82
50 Albert Costa -2.18
51 Thomas Johansson -2.47
52 Gaston Gaudio -2.69
53 Brian Teacher -2.75
54 Mark Edmondson -3.37
55 Bill Bowrey -3.69




Criteria used:
Number of big titles (grand slams + world tour finals + Olympic Gold medals)
Number of Masters 1000
Winning percentage in big titles & masters (wins divided by number of entries)
Winning percentage in Grand Slams
Total winning percentage vs Top 5 players
Total weeks at Number 1
Head-to-head winning percentage (the percentage of a player's head-to-head in which he is ahead)

PS: Huge thank you to the people running Ultimate Tennis Statistics for their data!

I'm attaching three images:
One with all the data I've used, and how each player has performed in each of the criteria,
One with the same as above, but with the data normalized (a necessary step before doing PCA-analysis)
One with the "factor loadings". To get the final score of each player, you have to multiply the normalized score from each criterion by the factor loading of each criterion, and add those up.

PS: Nothing is set in stone here. I'm pretty flexible to listen to community feedback. If there are mistakes, let me know. If I'm doing something wrong, or if there's a mistake in the data, I will obviously adjust.
Thoughts? Questions?


Stopped reading about this. Whatever your method you used is a joke. Move this thread to the Ruins since clearly biased criteria were used. How can you group WTF titles and Olympic Gold Medals with Grand Slams? Grand Slams are way more valuable then either.

Ask any expert who has Djokovic>Nadal or Lendl> Sampras and Laver.
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Last edited by zzzyyy; 09-14-2017 at 03:14 AM.
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post #3 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 03:20 AM Thread Starter
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Re: New GOAT Rankings - September 2017

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Originally Posted by zzzyyy View Post


Stopped reading about this. Whatever your method you used is a joke. Move this thread to the Ruins since clearly biased criteria were used. How can you group WTF titles and Olympic Gold Medals with Grand Slams? Grand Slams are way more valuable then either.

Ask any expert who has Djokovic>Nadal or Lendl> Sampras and Laver.
Excluding number of slams, Lendl actually has the edge over Sampras in many areas.
It is true that this methodology puts far less emphasis on grand slams won than other GOAT lists. I understand that many won't like that, but it is what it is.

As for Djokovic vs. Nadal: Nadal's problem lies in the number of weeks at number 1. In anything else, the two are roughly equal (Djokovic's slam deficit is compensated for by his WTF wins).

Since Nadal is at number 1 now, he'll be improving in this regard and could close the gap.

Last edited by Fedjokodal; 09-14-2017 at 03:23 AM.
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post #4 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 03:27 AM
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Re: New GOAT Rankings - September 2017

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fedjokodal View Post
Methodology:
The focus was to try and be as objective as humanly possible.

1. Screening: only players who have won at least 1 grand slam are screened in (sorry, Ferrer!).
2. Criteria were decided such that they were 1) generally recognized as important records, and 2) unambiguously positive/good (example: number of weeks in 2nd place doesn't count as unambiguously good, because 2nd place isn't as good as first), 3) not too nichey, and 4) in the Open Era.
3. A list is compiled with all the criteria, and each player's score.
4. To be objective, I use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to compute a score for each player. The theory here is that the first principal component captures the biggest common factor that make a player excel in all the criteria - the theory is that the biggest common factor is GOATness.

By using PCA, I am not the one determining the weights, or how important each criterion is. I'm letting the data speak, more or less.
This is the part that makes your list so interesting for me. I know fans today tend to feel most GS=GoaT, but I have heard John McEnroe say that if he had known how much importance future generations would put on slams he would have played more of them, and lets be honest I doubt someone like Chris Evert would have skipped 3 French opens in her prime or all those Aus Opens. Older generations did not view the French and AO as important. You also had travel issues going to AO and it being in the Christmas season at times.

Anyway, I like what you have done and wanted to say thanks again. It's always nice to see different view points.
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post #5 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 07:35 AM
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Re: New GOAT Rankings - September 2017

Much better and more objective list than the previous one. You have Novak above Nadal, Lendl Sampras adn Borg as he should be.

Although Olympics should be valued much less, actually completely ignored. They are meaningless and irrelevant when tennis GOATness is considered. There are some other things that need to be adjusted.

NCYGS is much more important than winning percentages, ...

Last edited by Floki; 09-14-2017 at 07:40 AM.
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post #6 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 07:39 AM
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Great analysis
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post #7 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 07:42 AM
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Re: New GOAT Rankings - September 2017

A bit better than the last list, but still Lendl ahead of Sampras???. I don't see the sense in this at all. Sampras has 6 more slams, and has more weeks at no1 and YE no1's. He leads comfortably in the 3 most important stats.

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post #8 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 08:09 AM
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Re: New GOAT Rankings - September 2017

Djokovic above Nadal. Lendl above Sampras. Oh well.
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post #9 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 08:41 AM
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Re: New GOAT Rankings - September 2017

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Originally Posted by zzzyyy View Post


Stopped reading about this. Whatever your method you used is a joke
Quote:
Originally Posted by svedberg View Post
Djokovic above Nadal. Oh well.
Djokovic has NCYGS which Nadal never achieved
Djokovic has far more weeks at No. 1
Djokovic has more year-end No. 1
Djokovic has far more consecutive weeks at No. 1
Djokovic was year-end No. 1 two years in a row which Nadal never achieved
Djokovic has head-to-head lead over Nadal
Djokovic has 5 WTF and Nadal 0
Djokovic has more 3 slam seasons
Djokovic has more semifinals and quarterfinals in Grand Slams
Djokovic has more consecutive finals, far more consecutive semifinals and quarterfinals in Grand Slams
Djokovic has more match wins in Grand Slams
Djokovic played in all 4 finals in Grand Slams in one season which Nadal never achieved
Djokovic has higher match winning percentage
Djokovic has more evenly distributed slams (62% of Nadal's 16 slams were won at FO while 50% of Novak's 12 slams were won at AO)
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post #10 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 08:51 AM
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Nadal is ranked too high
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post #11 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 09:32 AM
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Re: New GOAT Rankings - September 2017

Andy Murray is a top 15 GOAT player in any list. Most Nadal and Djoko fans are obssessed with placing their idol either 2nd or 3rd place. Other players mostly are irrelevant including Federer - no one challenges his spot at the moment.
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post #12 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 09:54 AM
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Re: New GOAT Rankings - September 2017

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Originally Posted by Alaricus View Post
Djokovic has NCYGS which Nadal never achieved
Djokovic has far more weeks at No. 1
Djokovic has more year-end No. 1
Djokovic has far more consecutive weeks at No. 1
Djokovic was year-end No. 1 two years in a row which Nadal never achieved
Djokovic has head-to-head lead over Nadal
Djokovic has 5 WTF and Nadal 0
Djokovic has more 3 slam seasons
Djokovic has more semifinals and quarterfinals in Grand Slams
Djokovic has more consecutive finals, far more consecutive semifinals and quarterfinals in Grand Slams
Djokovic has more match wins in Grand Slams
Djokovic played in all 4 finals in Grand Slams in one season which Nadal never achieved
Djokovic has higher match winning percentage
Djokovic has more evenly distributed slams (62% of Nadal's 16 slams were won at FO while 50% of Novak's 12 slams were won at AO)
Lmao at the last point. Nadal has 6 away from FO and Djokovic 6 away from AO. So what you're saying is adding more FO for Nadal or AO for Djokovic is bad for them because it means slams less evenly distributed. Let's add 10 more FO for Rafa. Now 77%, or 20/26 of his slams are at FO. Surely that makes him a worse player?

Also:

- Nadal has 4 more GS than Djokovic enough said, that alone makes him greater whatever else Djokovic does
- Nadal has more GS finals
- Nadal has a higher winning % at GS events
- Nadal has more Masters finals (equal # of Masters titles)
- Nadal has more overall titles
- The most tournament wins Djokovic has at one event is 6 (AO and Miami). Nadal has won 10 times at Barcelona, Monte Carlo, and RG. He has also won 7 Rome's which is more than any Djokovic has won at one event.
- Nadal has Olympic Gold vs Djokovic's Olympic Bronze
- Nadal won a slam for ten consecutive years, Djokovic's best is 5 consecutive years
- Nadal has more seasons with at least 2+ slams (4 vs 3)
- Nadal leads H2H at slams 9-4
- Nadal leads H2H in grand slam finals 4-3
- Nadal has more weeks in the top 2, top 5, and top 10
- Nadal has a better winning % against other members of the big 4 (58%) vs Djokovic (56%), and against the big 3 (54%) vs Djokovic (53%).

... And on and on you can go cherrypicking stats that favor both players. But at the end of the day the 4 slam difference is a gulf that cannot be bridged.

Last edited by zzzyyy; 09-14-2017 at 09:59 AM.
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post #13 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 10:35 AM
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Re: New GOAT Rankings - September 2017

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Originally Posted by zzzyyy View Post
Lmao at the last point. Nadal has 6 away from FO and Djokovic 6 away from AO. So what you're saying is adding more FO for Nadal or AO for Djokovic is bad for them because it means slams less evenly distributed. Let's add 10 more FO for Rafa. Now 77%, or 20/26 of his slams are at FO. Surely that makes him a worse player?
What I'm saying is that Nadal would be better if he had 4 AO, 4 FO, 4 Wim and 4 USO.

Quote:
Nadal has 4 more GS than Djokovic enough said, that alone makes him greater whatever else Djokovic does
Is that a fact or an opinion?
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post #14 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 11:00 AM
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Re: New GOAT Rankings - September 2017

Novak above Nadal?
Joke.
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post #15 of 136 (permalink) Old 09-14-2017, 11:35 AM
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Re: New GOAT Rankings - September 2017

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Originally Posted by VamosRafa123 View Post
Novak above Nadal?
Joke.
Reality Deal with it.
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Very small chances for Dull to gyp this time, very small. Not today and I guess never ever again. Bookies are mistaken that's for sure.
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LMAO That's going pitiable looking at fedtards are weeping by continuing to underrate their idol in all details. You probably forgot guys that Federer being at one's best has powerful weapon to completely crash Rafa on hard court, what can not be said of Nadal. Everything depends on the brightness of a fire bursting out Federer's racquet.
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BELIEVE!!!! You must f**king BELIEVE!!! in him more than anyone more than f**king I am.
Forget Djokovic > Forget Dull
Federer = G.O.A.T.

5,1,8,5 = 19
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