Mens Tennis Forums banner

What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

4K views 35 replies 21 participants last post by  ogre 
#1 ·
What does each have to do at the USO to be #1, #2, and #3?

What does Rafa have to do to retain #1?

What does Mugray have to do to regain #1?

What does Rogie have to do once again be #1?

Points going into USO: Rafa 7,645; Mugray 7,150; and Rogie 7,145....
 
#2 ·
Rogie can at best be at 9,145 points, but can Rafa and Mugray at best be 9,645 and 9,150 or do their points from 2016 come off meaning they can only can 1,820 and 1,640 points respectively towards the 52-week rankings and not the full 2,000 like Rogie can since he missed the 2016 USO (Rafa made 4th round and 180 points and Mugray make the QF and 360 points)?
 
#6 ·
Points are I believe: 10 for 1st round, 45 for 2nd round, 90 for 3rd round, 180 for 4th round, 360 for QF, 720 for SF, 1,200 for F, and lastly 2,000 for the title....

Therefore, it's this for Rogie: starts with 7,145, and for each round it'll be 7,155; 7,190; 7,235; 7,325; 7,505; 7,865; 8,345; and 9,145...
 
#7 ·
Nadal : 7465 | Federer : 7145 | Murray : 6790

First of all whoever wins the tournament will be the World Number #1 no matter others results.

Minimum scenarios to get the #1

Roger #1 : Roger QF | Nadal R1 | Murray 4R or lower

Murray #1 : Murray SF | Nadal R1 | Federer QF or lower
 
#11 ·
If Rafa starts with 7,465 his points could be: 7,475; 7,510; 7,555; 7,645; 7,825; 8,185; 8,665; and 9,465....

If Mugray starts with 6,790 his points could be: 6,800; 6,835; 6,880; 6,970; 7,150; 7,510; 7,990; and 8,790...

Again Rogie starts with 7,145 and his points could be: 7,155; 7,190; 7,235; 7,325; 7,505; 7,865; 8,345; and 9,145...

Anyone who wins it all is #1 after the USO yes...

Rogie: If he makes the F, Rafa must lose SF or before and Mugray must lose F or before....

Rafa: If he makes the F, Rogie can't win it and Mugray can't win it either (only way he'd lose #1 is to make the finals and lose to either Rogie or Mugray)...

Mugray: If he makes the F, Rafa must lose QF or sooner and Rogie must lose SF or sooner....
 
#14 ·
Well there it is then! If any of them win it all they're #1 after the USO; if Rafa makes the finals he most only not lose there to Rogie or Mugray; if Rogie makes the finals, he's #1 unless he loses the finals to Mugray or Rafa makes it past the SF; if Mugray makes the finals Rogie must lose SF or before and Rafa must lose QF or before....

My take: Mugray won't make it past the QF so he won't be above 7,150 at the end of the event (no real gains), SF is the best scenario for Rafa IMO so if he loses there Mugray must win outright or Rogie must make the finals or win it outright! All Rogie has to do is make the finals and not face Rafa or Mugray and #1 is his again, although he wants to win it all!!
 
#13 ·
Just wait after 2 weeks to see the Points Breakdown based on the round in the live rankings. :p

I made this and there may be errors, but these are their points based on the round they end up:



Basically, win title, get #1.
 
#15 ·
Can this Rafa who loses to Shapovalov in Montreal 3rd round and to Kyrgios in the Cincinnati QF win the 2017 USO? I really doubt it!

Can this Mugray who hasn't played since the QF of Wimby win the 2017 USO? I say virtually zero chance!

Can Rogie who made the F of Montreal, but had to pull out of Cincinnati with back trouble win the 2017 USO? I like his chances the best of the three!

My conclusion: No USO for Rafa nor Mugray, so either Rogie wins or a new surprise winner (i.e. A. Zverev)...
 
#20 ·
for the record, when Nadal won the US Open in 2010 he was coming off of relatively poor results (QF in both Cincinatti / Canada). Granted he had won Wimbledon so maybe that changes things dramatically, but the point is Nadal is somewhat unpredictable at slams as he tends to manage to up his game in them

I am fairly certain there are a few scenarios where Murray has done poorly at lead up events and then done well at slams

Federer based on results obviously is the big favorite- but we have no clue if his back is 100%



I honestly think there are decent odds someone surprising wins the US Open. Zverev would be fitting given this really seems like his breakout season, I just don't know about his fitness going the distance for two weeks
 
#17 ·
This article sums it up really well... The race to No. 1 between Nadal and Federer: scenarios at the US Open

Mugray and #3: If Mugray loses in the QF or before, he's definitely world #3 after the USO ends and the rankings come out on Monday September 11th, 2017. If Mugray loses in the SF, Mugray is #3 if Rogie makes at least the SF and Rafa makes at least the 3rd round. If Mugray makes the F, Rogie has to win the USO and Rafa must make at least the SF for Mugray to be #3...

Mugray and #2: Mugray must make at least the SF to be #2... If Mugray makes the F, he's #2 as long as Rogie doesn't make the F and if Rafa makes it to the SF or wins it (Rafa #1, Rogie #3) OR if Rogie wins it and Rafa loses in the SF or before (Rogie #1, Rafa #3).

Mugray and #1: Mugray has to make at least the SF to become #1 again... If Mugray loses in the SF he's #1 again if Rafa loses before the third round and Rogie loses before the SF. If Mugray makes the F, he's #1 again if Rogie loses before the F and Rafa loses before the QF. If Mugray wins the USO, he's #1 again!

Rafa and #3: If Rafa loses in the SF, and Mugray beats Rogie in the F, Rafa is #3. If Rafa makes the F or wins it no way can he be #3... If Rafa loses in the QF/4th round/3rd round/2nd round, Rogie must make at least the SF and Mugray must make at least the F for Rafa to be #3. If Rafa loses in the 1st round, Rogie must make at least the QF and Mugray must make at least the SF for Rafa to be #3...

Rafa and #2: If Rafa wins it there's no way he'll be #2. If Rafa makes the F he's #2 if he loses to Rogie or Mugray in the F... If Rafa loses in the SF, he's #2 if Mugray wins the title and Rogie loses before the F (Mugray #1, Rogie #3) OR if Rogie makes at least the F and Mugray doesn't win it all ouright (Rogie #1, Mugray #3). If Rafa loses in the 2nd round-QF, he's #2 if Rogie loses before the SF and Mugray makes at least the F (Mugray #1, Rogie #3) OR if Rogie makes at leas the SF and Mugray loses before the F (Rogie #1, Mugray #3)... If Rafa loses in the first round he's #2 if Rogie makes at least the QF and Mugray loses before the SF (Rogie #1, Mugray #3) OR if Rogie loses before the QF and Mugray makes at least the SF (Mugray #1, Rogie #3)...

Rafa and #1:If Rafa wins it he's #1. If he makes the F he's #1 unless he loses the F to Rogie or Mugray. If Rafa loses inthe SF he's #1 if Rogie loses before the F and Mugray doesn't win the title outright.... If Rafa loses in the QF 4th round 3rd round, or 2nd round, he's #1 if Rogie loses before the SF and Mugray loses before the F. If Rafa loses in the 1st round, he's #1 if Rogie loses before the QF and Mugray loses before the SF...

Rogie coming up in next post....
 
#18 ·
God it's doing my head with all these ifs and numbers...

No need for ifs because Federer will... argh... I can't say it in case I jinx him....
 
#19 ·
Rogie and #3: Rogie is #3 if he loses in rounds 1-QF and Mugray doesn't make at least the SF (whatever Rafa does has no bearing). Rogie is #3 if he loses in the SF and Mugray and Rafa both make the F (doesn't matter who wins and who loses here). If Rogies makes the F or wins it, Rogie can't be #3...

Rogie and #2: If Rogie loses in rounds 1-QF, he's #2 if Mugray loses QF or sooner and Rafa makes at least the 2nd round (Rafa #1, Mugray #3) or if Rafa loses in round 1 and Mugray makes the SF or better (Mugray #1, Rafa #3). If Rogie makes the SF, Rogie's #2 if Mugray loses SF or before and Rafa makes at least the SF (Rafa #1, Mugray #3) OR if Mugray makes at least the F and Rafa loses QF or before (Mugray #1, Rafa #3). If Rogie makes the F, he's #2 if Mugray or Rafa beat him in the F. If he wins it all, he can't be #2...

Rogie and #1: Rogie is #1 if he wins the event. If Rogie makes the F, he's #1 as long as he doesn't lose the F to Rafa or Mugray. If Rogie makes the SF, he's #1 if Rafa loses QF or before and Mugray loses SF or before.... If Rogie makes the QF, Rafa must lose in the first round and Mugray must lose before the SF. If Rogie loses in rounds 1-4, he can't be #1....

There's like all of the scenarios...
 
#24 · (Edited)
Would Zverev be a surprise winner? I would actually be more surprised if Murray were to win it. Nadal doesn't look like a likely winner, either, and since Federer is 36 and hasn't won three slams in the same year since 2007 nor the US Open since 2008, when he was rather more sprightly than he is today, wouldn't it be a bit of a surprise if the old man, after his sluggish performance in Montreal, were to win the whole thing?
 
#26 ·
What's interesting is that the WTA also has 3 players that needs to win USO and they get #1 -- Halep, Svitolina and Mugurza. Should be fun to follow the live rankings, especially if someone can break into say the Top 10. Can Querrey make it for example? Will someone make a great run to break into the Top 100?
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top