What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray? - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 03:21 AM Thread Starter
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What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

What does each have to do at the USO to be #1, #2, and #3?

What does Rafa have to do to retain #1?

What does Mugray have to do to regain #1?

What does Rogie have to do once again be #1?

Points going into USO: Rafa 7,645; Mugray 7,150; and Rogie 7,145....
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post #2 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 03:37 AM Thread Starter
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Re: What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

Rogie can at best be at 9,145 points, but can Rafa and Mugray at best be 9,645 and 9,150 or do their points from 2016 come off meaning they can only can 1,820 and 1,640 points respectively towards the 52-week rankings and not the full 2,000 like Rogie can since he missed the 2016 USO (Rafa made 4th round and 180 points and Mugray make the QF and 360 points)?
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post #3 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 03:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theseth1119 View Post
Rogie can at best be at 9,145 points, but can Rafa and Mugray at best be 9,645 and 9,150 or do their points from 2016 come off meaning they can only can 1,820 and 1,640 points respectively towards the 52-week rankings and not the full 2,000 like Rogie can since he missed the 2016 USO (Rafa made 4th round and 180 points and Mugray make the QF and 360 points)?
Yes they will drop the points from the 2016 US Open, in line with the rolling calendar year points system
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post #4 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 03:42 AM
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Re: What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

Well, I do know this. Whoever wins it out of those 3 will be #1. I do believe it won't be Rafa. I do hope it will be Roger. Never fear, someone will crunch the numbers and come up with a chart of points for each round success in comparison to the other two...
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post #5 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 03:43 AM Thread Starter
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Re: What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

So does that mean Rafa enters the USO with only 7,465 (7,645-180), Mugray with only 6,790 (7,150-360), and Rogie with a full 7,145? If so, then shouldn't Rogie be the #2 seed at the USO?
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post #6 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 03:49 AM Thread Starter
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Re: What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

Points are I believe: 10 for 1st round, 45 for 2nd round, 90 for 3rd round, 180 for 4th round, 360 for QF, 720 for SF, 1,200 for F, and lastly 2,000 for the title....

Therefore, it's this for Rogie: starts with 7,145, and for each round it'll be 7,155; 7,190; 7,235; 7,325; 7,505; 7,865; 8,345; and 9,145...
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post #7 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 03:51 AM
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Re: What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

Nadal : 7465 | Federer : 7145 | Murray : 6790

First of all whoever wins the tournament will be the World Number #1 no matter others results.

Minimum scenarios to get the #1

Roger #1 : Roger QF | Nadal R1 | Murray 4R or lower

Murray #1 : Murray SF | Nadal R1 | Federer QF or lower

Rafa - VEB - Fed - Sascha - Wawrinka - Del Potro - Kyrgios - Tsonga.
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post #8 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 03:53 AM Thread Starter
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Re: What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

Then shouldn't Rogie be the #2 seed since the points come off before the USO starts?
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post #9 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 03:55 AM
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Re: What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

Quote:
Originally Posted by theseth1119 View Post
So does that mean Rafa enters the USO with only 7,465 (7,645-180), Mugray with only 6,790 (7,150-360), and Rogie with a full 7,145? If so, then shouldn't Rogie be the #2 seed at the USO?

seeds include last years open so roger would be 3

fwiw next weeks results don't count toward seeding. ranking as of this coming monday are used - which include last yrs open
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post #10 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 03:55 AM
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Re: What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

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Then shouldn't Rogie be the #2 seed since the points come off before the USO starts?
US Open Points are dropping in 4 weeks so Fed will still be #3 behind Murray if he decides to play.

Rafa - VEB - Fed - Sascha - Wawrinka - Del Potro - Kyrgios - Tsonga.
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post #11 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 04:03 AM Thread Starter
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Re: What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

If Rafa starts with 7,465 his points could be: 7,475; 7,510; 7,555; 7,645; 7,825; 8,185; 8,665; and 9,465....

If Mugray starts with 6,790 his points could be: 6,800; 6,835; 6,880; 6,970; 7,150; 7,510; 7,990; and 8,790...

Again Rogie starts with 7,145 and his points could be: 7,155; 7,190; 7,235; 7,325; 7,505; 7,865; 8,345; and 9,145...

Anyone who wins it all is #1 after the USO yes...

Rogie: If he makes the F, Rafa must lose SF or before and Mugray must lose F or before....

Rafa: If he makes the F, Rogie can't win it and Mugray can't win it either (only way he'd lose #1 is to make the finals and lose to either Rogie or Mugray)...

Mugray: If he makes the F, Rafa must lose QF or sooner and Rogie must lose SF or sooner....
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post #12 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 04:03 AM
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Re: What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

Code:
                                Nadal     Federer     Murray   
R128				7475      7155         6800
R64				7510      7190         6835
R32                             7555      7235         6880
R16                             7645      7325         6970
QF                              7825      7505         7150
SF                              8185      7865         7510
F                               8665      8345         7990
W			        9465      9145         8790
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post #13 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 04:05 AM
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Re: What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

Just wait after 2 weeks to see the Points Breakdown based on the round in the live rankings.

I made this and there may be errors, but these are their points based on the round they end up:



Basically, win title, get #1.
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post #14 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 04:13 AM Thread Starter
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Re: What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Ibrahim View Post
Code:
                                Nadal     Federer     Murray   
R128				7475      7155         6800
R64				7510      7190         6835
R32                             7555      7235         6880
R16                             7645      7325         6970
QF                              7825      7505         7150
SF                              8185      7865         7510
F                               8665      8345         7990
W			        9465      9145         8790
Well there it is then! If any of them win it all they're #1 after the USO; if Rafa makes the finals he most only not lose there to Rogie or Mugray; if Rogie makes the finals, he's #1 unless he loses the finals to Mugray or Rafa makes it past the SF; if Mugray makes the finals Rogie must lose SF or before and Rafa must lose QF or before....

My take: Mugray won't make it past the QF so he won't be above 7,150 at the end of the event (no real gains), SF is the best scenario for Rafa IMO so if he loses there Mugray must win outright or Rogie must make the finals or win it outright! All Rogie has to do is make the finals and not face Rafa or Mugray and #1 is his again, although he wants to win it all!!
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post #15 of 36 (permalink) Old 08-19-2017, 04:22 AM Thread Starter
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Re: What are the USO scenarios for #1, #2, and #3 for Federer/Nadal/Murray?

Can this Rafa who loses to Shapovalov in Montreal 3rd round and to Kyrgios in the Cincinnati QF win the 2017 USO? I really doubt it!

Can this Mugray who hasn't played since the QF of Wimby win the 2017 USO? I say virtually zero chance!

Can Rogie who made the F of Montreal, but had to pull out of Cincinnati with back trouble win the 2017 USO? I like his chances the best of the three!

My conclusion: No USO for Rafa nor Mugray, so either Rogie wins or a new surprise winner (i.e. A. Zverev)...
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