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Which player will be Year End #1 in 2017?

  • Rafael Nadal

    Votes: 18 21.7%
  • Roger Federer

    Votes: 61 73.5%
  • Other

    Votes: 1 1.2%
  • Don't know

    Votes: 3 3.6%

2017 Battle for YE#1: Nadal vs Federer?

16K views 99 replies 53 participants last post by  NADALalot 
#1 · (Edited)
In this thread we can track the Battle for Year End #1 in 2017.

It's possible that the #1 race position may change hands a few times depending on which tournaments the two play and which ones they miss.

Here is the Race as of the 24th of July:



Here is a nice video depicting both Nadal and Federer's superb play thus far.




It would be interesting for our more calculating posters to try and figure out which tournaments Nadal and Federer can win and/or get a good result (SF or better) to help determine who may win the battle for YE #1.





Simple poll added. :)


Respectfully,
masterclass
 
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#2 · (Edited)
Re: 2017 Battle for YE#1: Nadal vs Federer

This thread will be the absolute delicious desert following an already stellar main course that is 2017.
 
#4 ·
Re: 2017 Battle for YE#1: Nadal vs Federer

Nadal's tournaments schedule


AUGUST & SEPTEMBER:

Montreal, Canada (August 7 – 13)

Cincinnati, USA (August 13 – 20)

US Open (August 28 – September 10)

OCTOBER:

Beijing, China (October 2 – 8)

Shanghai, China (October 8 -15)

Basel, Switzerland (October 23 – 29)

Paris, France (October 30 – November 5)

NOVEMBER:

ATP World Tour Finals, London (November 12 – 19)

Federer's schedule

AUGUST & SEPTEMBER:

Montreal, Canada (August 7 – 13) ???

Cincinnati, USA (August 13 – 20) (Confirmed)

US Open (August 28 – September 10) (Confirmed)

OCTOBER:

Shanghai, China (October 8 -15) (Confirmed)

Basel, Switzerland (October 23 – 29) (Confirmed)

Paris, France (October 30 – November 5) ???

NOVEMBER:

ATP World Tour Finals, London (November 12 – 19) (Confirmed)
 
#8 ·
Nadal's tournaments schedule


AUGUST & SEPTEMBER:

Montreal, Canada (August 7 – 13)

Cincinnati, USA (August 13 – 20)

US Open (August 28 – September 10)

OCTOBER:

Beijing, China (October 2 – 8)

Shanghai, China (October 8 -15)

Basel, Switzerland (October 23 – 29)

Paris, France (October 30 – November 5)

NOVEMBER:

ATP World Tour Finals, London (November 12 – 19)

Federer's schedule

AUGUST & SEPTEMBER:

Montreal, Canada (August 7 – 13) ???

Cincinnati, USA (August 13 – 20) (Confirmed)

US Open (August 28 – September 10) (Confirmed)

OCTOBER:

Shanghai, China (October 8 -15) (Confirmed)

Basel, Switzerland (October 23 – 29) (Confirmed)

Paris, France (October 30 – November 5) ???

NOVEMBER:

ATP World Tour Finals, London (November 12 – 19) (Confirmed)
Nadal is truly gunning for #1, and he may get it.

I don't care if Federer ends the year #1 as long as he win USO.
 
#5 · (Edited)
Re: 2017 Battle for YE#1: Nadal vs Federer

By the way, if either Rafa or Roger captures the Year End #1 ranking, that player will set a record.

Nobody 30 years old or over has been Year End #1 since the ATP rankings were used. Lendl is the current oldest Year End #1 at 29 years 299 days (1989).

That said, Roger will be 36. Will his age ultimately make the difference in this battle?
Will it cause him to not be able to play as many tournaments as he may have when he was younger, and give the almost 5 year younger Rafa an advantage?
I mean one could say it already has with him skipping the clay season, which spotted Rafa quite a lead. But then Roger's two grass wins have propelled him close again.

But for the rest of the season, could decisions like skipping Montreal, or skipping Paris hurt his chances, or actually help him, so that he is well rested enough to give him better chances to win those he does play?

Respectfully,
masterclass
 
#6 ·
Re: 2017 Battle for YE#1: Nadal vs Federer

By the way, if either Rafa or Roger captures the Year End #1 ranking, that player will set a record.

Nobody 30 years old or over has been Year End #1 since the ATP rankings were used. Lendl is the current oldest Year End #1 at 29 years 299 days.

That said, Roger will be 36. Will his age ultimately make the difference in this battle?
Will it cause him to not be able to play as many tournaments as he may have when he was younger, and give the almost 5 year younger Rafa an advantage?
I mean one could say it already has with him skipping the clay season, which spotted Rafa quite a lead. But then Roger's two grass wins have propelled him close again.

But for the rest of the season, could decisions like skipping Montreal, or skipping Paris hurt his chances, or actually help him, so that he is well rested enough to win those he does play?

Respectfully,
masterclass
Rafa needs to win USO to stand a chance. He needs a healthy lead heading into the indoor tournaments as he sucks there. There is no way he's outscoring Fraud there. If he's behind after the USO the race is as good as done.
 
#7 ·
Re: 2017 Battle for YE#1: Nadal vs Federer

A WTF final this year deciding the YE1 between Federer-Nadal will eclipse last year Djokovic-Murray season ending climax hard I think.
 
#12 ·
Am I the only one who doesn't think either will win the uso?
 
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#67 · (Edited)
I'd rather say :

- if Fed is ahead in the Race after the US Open, 75% yes ;
- if Nadal is ahead by 1000 points after the US Open, 75% yes.

Regarding what you say, I mean if one wins the US Open and does shit in Montreal and Cinci while the other one does great (which is possible), overall it will have little impact

But imo the end of the year is Fed's best ally in that race. Shanghai, Basel, WTF, not even thinking of playing Paris. Even though Nadal might play two more tournaments in Beijing and maybe Paris (not sure about Paris at all he has often skipped it)

I have less hopes than many others for Fed in Cinci, and I don't think like some others that it's so important for the rankings that Fed plays Montreal (imo he just considers it's better for US Open preparation, and if ever he goes far there he may skip Cinci) but I do have high hopes in the WTF, Shanghai and Basel. Because they are quicker than the rest of tournaments, Djokovic won't be there and Fed has played far less than Nadal this year.

Ps : there's still a possibility that Murray gets on fire and grabs the end-of-year number 1 :smile2:

This depends more on Nadal than Federer I would say. Nadal will play more tournaments than Federer, assuming he avoids injury. therefore, if he performs well in them all, YE#1 will be his.
no because it's not how the rankings work in tennis : there's a huge gap between the winner of a tournament and the others, then the number of tournaments played is not that important.

Of course if Nadal wins Montreal while Fed loses early having used it as a preparation, and if Nadal also wins Beijing, it will be harder for Federer.

But it's not a matter for Nadal of playing tournaments, it's a matter of winning.

Federer is the favourite because he has done better in the tournaments in which they have both played (Aussie, IW, Miami, Wimby), he is behind because he hasnt played as many events. Assuming this trend continues, Nadal should should stay ahead of him as he'll play more events.
No Federer is behind because we are after the clay season where Nadal always grabs a lot of points (except last year).

And it's far from certain that Federer would have more points now had he played claycourt tournaments.

But there's no reason that such a "trend" continues in the rest of the year because the clay season is over
 
#18 ·
The funny thing is that lots of people, me included, are hoping for/hyping a Federer-Nadal year ending battle, that the chance of an anticlimax is relatively huge:nerd:
 
#20 ·
It's funny that both have best season in many years, but one will be completely overshadowed by another.
 
#26 ·
It's hard to see anyone being YE#1 other than Fed. Sure Nadal has a slight lead-about 250 odd with last years Cincy and US off. As people have pointed out, Rafa's last good run post clay season was 2013. I expect Fed to win Cincy so Rafa would have to go deep in Canada-not impossible given Novak is now out-and do better than quarters at Cincy to still be ahead of Fed in the rankings. Assuming Murray is not playing Canada he is almost certain to lose the #1 by US. It'll be fun, whatever happens.
 
#27 · (Edited)
Nadal has a 550 point lead if you take cincy and US off. Just look at the singles race as opposed to the rankings, you can see how many points have been earned this calendar year (jan-current), which will give you the best indication of the battle to the YE#1. Regardless, I agree with you IF Federer keeps his form, based on history its reasonable to assume he'll outscore rafa by a fair bit more than 550 during the rest of the year. But who knows, a early exit here or there from Federer and or a big win by nadal could easily flip that prediction on its head. Also if Federer doesn't play Montreal and nadal goes onto win it, Rafas odds for getting the YE#1 would greatly improve, given he'd be 1550 points of fed going into cincy.
 
#28 ·
I wonder how we all would react if Murray would channel his inner ''Stanimal'' once more at the end of the season and defends a lot of his points, and maybe even wins the US open. Thereby defending his number 1 status. This would have to go hand in hand with a few early exits from Federer and Nadal, but that can also happen. It's not the scenario that I want, but I would be grinning all the way if it would unfold before our eyes.
 
#36 ·
Nadal is playing more events than Fed. Montreal ATP1000 and Beijing ATP500. Also Fed might skip Paris ATP1000, which would make it up to 2500 points. Of course Nadal will not win much, but he might go fairly deep. So Fed does need to really be at 100% in the events he is playing.
 
#38 ·
Nadal might grab it on the basis of playing more tournaments.

Nadal vs Federer? More like Quantity vs Quality
 
#40 ·
It's going to be close. Although I'd be surprised if Nadal won more points than Federer August-December, I reckon he might win more points than people expect. As well as cleaning up the clay season, he might also have won in Australia & Miami without Federer & his revamped backhand. So he's having an extremely good year and when he's having a good year, he can do a lot of damage in America. Federer, meanwhile, is rightly prioritizing rest, so is relying on reaching the final in pretty much every tournament he plays, which is something nobody, not even he, can guarantee.
 
#41 ·
YE#1 will most likely be for Rafa. As in 90% 'likely'. I'm assuming he'll play 2 Masters and a 500 more than Federer, wich makes it for an extra 2500 points. And Rafa already owns a 500+ difference over the old man.

Federer needs to make it deep everywhere he plays and hope early exits by Rafa. Wich is unlikely given the current terribad form of the top guys (Kei, Milos, Nick, Andy). Even the guys who are ok like Berdych, Dimi, Cilic and Alex could easily crumble before Rafa.

Not to mention the current trend might continue and Federer draws all of these guys in his half. :lol:
 
#42 ·
YE#1 will most likely be for Rafa. As in 90% 'likely'. I'm assuming he'll play 2 Masters and a 500 more than Federer, wich makes it for an extra 2500 points. And Rafa already owns a 500+ difference over the old man.

Federer needs to make it deep everywhere he plays and hope early exits by Rafa. Wich is unlikely given the current terribad form of the top guys (Kei, Milos, Nick, Andy). Even the guys who are ok like Berdych, Dimi, Cilic and Alex could easily crumble before Rafa.

Not to mention the current trend might continue and Federer draws all of these guys in his half. :lol:
Well, I would be only worried if Fed drew them all in his quarter. Otherwise he would face only one of Berdych, Dimi, Cilic or Alex.
 
#43 ·
#44 ·
Alexander Zverev, Jr. is the only member of the much hyped #NextGen in the Live Race's current top 25 players. :surprise:

2017 Halle Final Federer d. Zverev 6-1, 6-3


Respectfully,
masterclass
 
#45 ·
I think Nadal has the US Open in the bag, and he certainly has a big shot at the World Tour Finals too.
Federer got extremely lucky when Muller saved him from Nadal at Wimbledon (despite Nadal's epic 77 winners and 17 unforced errors).
Federer had horrible preparation for the Wimbledon Final, would not have been able to elevate his level vs Nadal.
 
#47 ·
I think Nadal has the US Open in the bag, and he certainly has a big shot at the World Tour Finals too.
Federer got extremely lucky when Muller saved him from Nadal at Wimbledon (despite Nadal's epic 77 winners and 17 unforced errors).
Federer had horrible preparation for the Wimbledon Final, would not have been able to elevate his level vs Nadal.
You do, do you? And how does he have it in the bag when the player of the moment has beaten him 3 times on the same surface this year, twice in less favourable conditions, especially considering AA is now almost an indoor court.

I thought the era of delusional tards had come to an end but we have a dinosaur on our hands here :lol:.
 
#46 ·






Respectfully,
masterclass
 
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#49 · (Edited)
For federer he needs to focus on the us open and if num 1 happens great.

nadal is playing too many events compared to fed so really its not fed's top concern.



Nadal shud be careful as he has alreay plyaed the most out of the top guys and if he ends the season on a jam packed schedule well he may compromise himself end of this year or early next year.


I just feel fed prollly is not winning the us open and nadal will. This is because post big wins fed has struggled and winning wimbledon 8th title may be the biggest title of the year. He must be somewhat satisfied which is why i don't like his chances while nadal maybe more motivated at the moment. I could be way wrong but it would be normal for fed to have a bit of a dip after so much success this year.
 
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