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Who will be the 2 through 5 seeds at Wimbledon?

21K views 183 replies 60 participants last post by  RafaKing 
#1 · (Edited)
#4 vs #5 seed could mean the difference between avoiding top guys in SF vs. QF, and having to play potentially 3 really tough matches.

As it stands now:

Djokovic- 5805 points
Federer- 4945 points

All grass points pre-Wimbledon taken off:

Djokovic- 5805
Federer- 4765

Now Djokovic isn't playing a grass warmup, while Fed is playing 2. I know the formula is last 12 months grass events x2 plus the 12 months before that x.75

If this is correct, then this is the real seeding, still taking into account that Federer can add 2 more events, and with double points at that:

Djokovic- + 180 pts ('16 Wimbledn R3) + 1500 ('15 Wim W)= 7485 points

Federer- + 1440 pts ('16 Wimbledon SF) + 900 ('15 Wimbledon F)= 7105 points

So Fed has to score 380 points in Stuttgart/Halle, but since it is doubled, he only needs 190 points

All this being said, Djokovic did say he may take a break from tennis after RG, but very hard to see him skipping Wimbledon
 
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#2 ·
Very likely it's Federer who gets the 4th since he is winning Stuttgart and Halle. I do hope he is seeded 5th so he can get a mug like Nadal, Wawrinka or Djokovic in the QF.
 
#40 ·
Mugs???. May be u rely on Novak's recent downturn and Rafa's 2012 and beyond Wimbledon record. Players like Novak and Rafa are dangerous even in their worst phase.. Between them they have 5 Wimby Titles .

"Form is Temporary ; class is permanent"

"Nothing lasts for ever; not even a bad patch"

Till 2014 MOST of us did not think much about Stan's big match approach and even after that MOST of us did not give him a chance at RG in 15. We know what happened.
 
#3 ·
When I said Novak's decision of skipping everything until Wimbledon was a bad idea due to purely surface related issues, I wasn't considering the seed problem.

Bad idea x2, then. :shrug:
 
#8 ·
check this link:

ATP Open Era & Live Rankings

you may need to click on wimbledon rankings and it has the most up to date point count and considers the last two years on grass formula.

djoker is still num 2 on this even with nadal winning because he gets credit for past years esp his win in 2015 but they are separated by 75 ish points and if djoker skips grass warmups nadal will be the num 2 with a few wins at queens.

Fed is almost assured a top 4 as he trails stan by 100 points which i think he needs two wins in stuttgart.


Essentially, fed will be getting a top four seed and nadal will likely get num 2 seed if djoker does not have any warmup event as years past.

The craziest scenerio is if nadal does not get to the queens final, djokovic does not play a warmup, but fed wins halle and stuttgart... FEDERER gets num 2 seed.
 
#12 ·
Isn't Slasher's Wimbly Race Live Ranking accurate? If it is, then it's Stan who is at danger of being pushed outside top 4, not Djokovic.
 
#14 ·
Well, I trust you've seen the proper numbers now with Federer 1010 points off Djokovic.
Well, it appears we are both wrong. He counts only the best event from last 12 months and 2nd 12 months, while I count all for both.

Real rules are best event from 2 years ago, and all events from 1 year ago

http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/atoz/seeds.html

Time to recalculate.......
 
#19 ·
New calculation

Djokovic- + 180 pts ('16 Wimbledn R3) + 1500 ('15 Wim W)= 7485 points

Federer- + 1440 pts ('16 Wimbledon SF) + 900 ('15 Wimbledon F)= 7105 points

So Fed has to score 380 points in Stuttgart/Halle, but since it is doubled, he only needs 190 points

Fed only needs 190 points, so W in Stuttgart seals it, or F in Stuttgart and 45 points in Halle, that's like R16 or something
 
#31 ·
I think you may be doubling the 2016 Wimbledon points accidentally as they are already in the ATP points bucket.

So with what you have Djokovic should only have 7395 points, and Federer 6385, which is what exactly what Slasher has in his calculations.
 
#21 ·
Fed is currently #5 in the Wimbledon Race, with the following "Wimbledon points":

Murray - 11930 points
Djokovic - 7395 points
Nadal - 7318.75 points
Wawrinka- 6490 points
Federer - 6385 points

So he's only behind Stan by 105 points. Really, the one in dangerous is surprisingly Stan if he doesn't do well in the warm-up events (i.e. Queen's Club). Even if he wins (1000 "Wimbledon Points"), Fed could overttake him with a Halle-Stuttgart double (total of 1500 "Wimbledon points").
 
#23 ·
Yes, everyone is all bunched in there

Anyone of those guys can be #2-5 depending on what happens next 2 weeks
 
#26 ·
OPs calculations are completely wrong and misleading. Novak can't be #5 seed.
 
#29 ·
He can end up 5th. It wouls take a lot though. Djokovic doesn't play any grass warm-up tournaments and they can be quite valuable to Wimbledon seeding as they double, being counted in both overall ATP Points, and grass points over the last 12 months.

2-5 are very tight right now. If Nadal wins even one match in Queen's Club he passes Djokovic for #2 seed. If Federer wins both Stuttgart and Halle he will also pass Djokovic, same goes for Stan if he wins Queen's Club. If all those scenarios happen then Djokovic would be seeded 5th for Wimbledon. However 5th is as low as he can go as Raonic is only playing in Queen's Club and a win would only net him 700 points towards his Wimbledon seeding (200 extra ATP Points for a win and the 500 towards last 12 months of grass). Raonic can't even reach 5th if Federer does nothing.

Nadal, Federer and Stan all have 0 points from the warm-up tournaments last year so they will get a full double point value this year.
 
#37 ·
The formula is quite simple.

Take ATP ranking points at the time Wimbledon seeding is decided. Add grass points from the last 12 months. I.e. between Wimbledon 16 and 17 including the Wimbledon 16, and then add 0.75 * points from the best grass tournaments in the 12 months before that - probably Wimbledon 2015 for most players.

There are no double points added and it does not matter if any players played warmup tournaments in previous years or not. Only if they have points or not.
 
#47 ·
What will Nadals seeding at Wimbledon be?

Just curious if anyone here has an idea? Looking at the rankings and the fact that Nadals done barley nothing on grass
over the past two years, how will this effect his ranking? Obviously Wimbledon has the grass performance rule but if you
look at who's below him wawrinka djokovic federer and even raonic, they've all had better grass seasons in recent times
then Nadal (well expect wawrinka but he has competed at the very least). Could/will we see Nadal drop as low as 6th?
If thats the case I can actually start to see Nadals argument against the performance ranking rule a little bit he's finally starting
to gain traction and a lower seeding means facing harder opponents earlier. I don't think this will happen my prediction
is Murray Djokovic Federer Nadal Raonic Wawrinka. Anyways let me know your prediction and if Nadal is at risk of not being seeded
1-4 could he make that up at Queens?
 
#54 ·
Re: What will Nadals seeding at Wimbledon be?

Hopefully he doesn't pull a fraud and skip the entire grass season.
He already did so last year.
 
#56 ·
Re: What will Nadals seeding at Wimbledon be?

3-4 would be ideal if Federer also stays at 3-4. Not that I expect him to reach the SF, but if he does I much rather see him play against Murray or Djokovic than Federer.
Nadaltards hoping he gets the easiest draws as always :spit:
 
#62 ·
Re: What will Nadals seeding at Wimbledon be?

Let's say Rafa is the #5 seed, which quarter does he want most (Wawrinka, Djokovic, or Mugray)? Certainly he doesn't want to be in Rogie's quarter!
I don't think Federer will beat Nadal at Wimbledon if they meet.
Nadal is full of confidence, so I think he'll resume ownership of Federer, so I hope they are in the same quarter.
 
#59 ·
With Nadal pulling out of Queen's that means Djokovic's lowest possible seed is 4. That would require Stan and Federer winning Queen's and Halle, and Federer winning one match in Stuttgart.
 
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