I am a Federer's fan. But while watching Federer against Andy and Rafa against Blake, i thought that Rafa was actually doing better than before. His problem was confidence in the cirtical moment. Federer improved his BH a lot in this season, but his volley seems to be awkward right now. Those who beat Nadal in this season in HC has common thing: hitting flat ball and good net game.
See Pim pim, Berdman, Youzhny, Blake. They hit the ball very flat from both side - FH and BH. Federer still hit the ball with top spin rather than pure flat ball on both side.
Besides, apart from Youzhny, three other guys wonderfully handled ralley with Nadal finishing the point in the net. This made Nadal unsettled sticking far behind the baseline. Federer can not do this type of game confidently right now.
This means that baseline game will decide this match. That's why i think Rafa has edge even in this surface right now if he handle confidence problem.
This is just my presupposition. I am an medium level of amateur tennis. I would like to know other guy's opinion. What do you think? If Roger will win, please let me know winning-algebra.
I'm not sure what you're talking about. Sure those guys(Berdych,Blake,etc.) hit the ball flatter than Federer, and Federer does hit with alot more topspin than any of them, but volleys? You're telling me that they are better volleyers than Federer? Federer is far and away the best volleyer out of that group, and is one of the best on tour. Federer doesn't come to net nearly as much as he used to, but that's due to his dominant baseline game. No one can compete with him from the back of the court, so why bother coming in all the time?
I do think Federer will have to attack Nadal alot more than other players by coming to the net, but this surface heavily favors Federer anyway, so he should have some leeway on this surface.