Do you agree with the RG betting odds? (post- draw update) - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 01:16 PM Thread Starter
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Do you agree with the RG betting odds? (post- draw update)

Implied win probabilities:

Nadal - 56%
Djokovic - 14%
Thiem, Wawrinka - 7%
Murray - 6%
Goffin, Del Potro, Nishikori, Zverev ~ 1.5%
Tsonga, Raonic ~ 1%

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plu...et/1.125159011

Only big surprise for me is the respect Murray is still getting at 6%. "Clayray" is a complete joke right now, i'd have him at around 1-2% to win the tournament at best.
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post #2 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 01:37 PM
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Re: Do you agree with the RG betting odds?

I think 6% is fair. It only means that if there were a player with his chance at every RG for 20 years they'd win it (roughly) once.
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post #3 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 01:42 PM
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Re: Do you agree with the RG betting odds?

Joke no. 1.

Even Thiem has better odds than Mugray.

Cant remember any ATP no.1 being disrespected like this except maybe Rios?


Novak Djokovic
Stan Wawrinka
Roger Federer.
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post #4 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 01:43 PM
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Re: Do you agree with the RG betting odds?

When points of FO will drop ?! Before FO or after FO because i am not sure.
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post #5 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 01:49 PM
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Re: Do you agree with the RG betting odds?

I rate Wawrinka higher than Thiem - proven winner, also form in buildup is irelevant for him. Goffin higher, even above Andy tbh. Andy was playing very well last clay season, he rode his form to reach the final.
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post #6 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 01:53 PM
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Re: Do you agree with the RG betting odds?

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I rate Wawrinka higher than Thiem - proven winner, form is irelevant for him. Goffin higher, even above Andy tbh. Andy was playing very well last clay season, he rode his form to reach the final.

Well Wawrinka has not showed anything on clay this year but Thiem and Goffin played a lot. So it means nothing for FO. Murray could play very well at FO . Thiem can lose in 1rd. No one could say who is going to play great and who not at FO.
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post #7 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 01:53 PM
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Re: Do you agree with the RG betting odds?

It's pretty much my top 10 favourite list, minus Dimug which I lumped in there mainly because I couldn't really think of more than 9 favourites.

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post #8 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 02:36 PM
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Re: Do you agree with the RG betting odds?

Wawrinka should be above Thiem.
Murray should maybe be slightly above Goffin, Nishikori & co but not with that big a margin.

As for Nadal being at 56%, sounds reasonable.
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post #9 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 03:01 PM
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Re: Do you agree with the RG betting odds?

You guys are giving Wawrinka way too much respect. His peak level comes around once in a blue moon, usually against Djokovic, and he looks to have declined a little in the past year. His clay form has been dreadful, and although form means less to Stan than it would for most others, you can't completely discount it either. Compare to Thiem, who has been mentally strong, consistent, and only lost to Nadal and an in-form Goffin (a bad match-up) on clay this year. The only advantage Stan has is that he's slightly more likely to beat Nadal and/or Djokovic, whereas Thiem is the better bet against every other player in the field.

As for the odds, I'd put Murray lower and Nadal significantly higher at around 65%. Raonic and Cilic might deserve better after strong showings in Rome as well.
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post #10 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 03:16 PM
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Re: Do you agree with the RG betting odds?

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You guys are giving Wawrinka way too much respect. His peak level comes around once in a blue moon, ...
Since USO'13 and his first GS SF, once-in-a-blue-moonwrinka made eight GS semis + 3 QF, i.e. the most GS semis and titles after Djokovic.

So far Thiem passed GS 4R once.

At slower surfaces AO/RG since 2013 Wawrinka won two slams, entered three more SF, one QF (Nadal at RG) and lost AO 4R to Djokovic and Raonic in virtual 6-setter and 5-setter.

Thiem made one SF after his top seed withdrew in the previous round, and one 4R.

Thiem is improving by every month, still a long way to go before he is the top 3 slam contender in my eyes.

Last edited by doubletrollt; 05-18-2017 at 04:43 PM.
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post #11 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 03:29 PM
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Re: Do you agree with the RG betting odds?

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Since USO'13 once-in-a-blue-moonwrinka made eight GS semis + 3 QF, winning three titles i.e. the best GS score after Djokovic.

So far Thiem passed GS 4R once, after top seed withdrew in the previous round.
Valid point, I shouldn't discount Stan's GS record and his Australian Open semifinal. The comparison you make is hardly fair though. Thiem's still a work in progress, but he's playing arguably the best tennis of his life right now. His consistently high results on clay, plus reaching the Madrid final and pushing Nadal definitely indicate he's capable of winning Roland Garros.
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post #12 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 03:35 PM
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Re: Do you agree with the RG betting odds?

Clayray hasn't shown up this year, for a few reasons, so his placement is fair enough. He could turn his form around at any time. You never count Andy out of a slam.

Nadal being first is obvious, Djokovic being second as the defending champion is understandable and outsiders like Thiem and Wawrinka who play well on this surface makese sense too. The rest don't really matter as they have no chance whatsoever.

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post #13 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 04:08 PM
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Re: Do you agree with the RG betting odds?

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Originally Posted by pepita1964 View Post
When points of FO will drop ?! Before FO or after FO because i am not sure.
On 5/06 it seems.

Last edited by Monsi; 05-27-2017 at 05:12 PM.
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post #14 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 04:11 PM
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Re: Do you agree with the RG betting odds?

I think the risk with Nadal is that he could run out of steam, since he won so many matches on clay recently.

Whereas players who had a poor clay season so far, like Wawrinka and Murray, might up their game just in time for the big moment.
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post #15 of 59 (permalink) Old 05-18-2017, 04:16 PM
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Re: Do you agree with the RG betting odds?

I agree. It's between Wawrinka, Nadal & Djokovic.

Novak Djokovic


Sascha Zverev - Joao Sousa - Pablo Carreno Busta - Dusan Lajovic
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