If Nadal continues to clean up the clay field and take 3000 more points, Murray would need a deep run at Wimbledon to hold onto the #1 ranking (unless "Clayray" can somehow make a sudden reappearance and he picks up some points during Rome and RG). If Djokovic/Wawrinka could win FO or Wimbledon or make several deep runs they also have a chance at #1. Federer is too far behind considering he's skipping RG to take over #1 immediately by the end of Wimbledon even if he wins it.
Murray is always in danger of dropping out of #1 after Wimbledon, as he'll only have ~1000 difference against the next one. The question is if he could actually play well when the time comes for grass, which is where his bulk of points started to grow. The question is if the others will be able to grab that lead, and it seemed Nadal is primed to do it after RG, where he virtually has no points to defend. These weeks are crucial to see whose going to be a potential long-patch #1 for the season IMO.
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Right now, this is almost Kafelnikov-like, remember when Evgeny was world #1 he was losing to nobodies, I think it was even worse.
But Murray will likely lose a lot of points at the French Open first, no way he is making the final, I actually think the damage at Wimbledon could be less big than the French, he could somehow find his form on grass.
I hope Nadal makes the QF of Wimbledon, because I think his confidence is so high he may actually win Wimbledon if he can reach the QF.
He had a good shot in 2014 too if he won that high quality match vs Krygios in 4th Round (Raonic was in QF).
I think Thiem will win approximately 5 French Opens, so Nadal beating Thiem twice is not weak at all.
Plus Djokovic is ranked #2 and Nadal routined him.
Nothing weak about that.
People underestimate Djokovic.
I don't think Federer will beat Djokovic if they meet at Wimbledon.