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Would Federer Have Beaten Nadal in the Monte Carlo Final?

5K views 65 replies 44 participants last post by  Armchair 
#1 ·
With the combined effect of Nadal's short forehand and Federer's improved backhand, some say that Federer would be the favourite in this hypothetical final. Nadal had low confidence in finals going into today while Federer has made him his pigeon.

The Ljubicic Advantage plays a factor as well.
 
#4 ·
Surfaces at Indian Wells and Miami both suited RAFA and yet Federer comfortably handled him. Nadal's declined forehand and Federer's now ridiculously effective high backhand and backhand return have completely changed the dynamics of this match-up, so we can throw history out the window for this one. Or do you need a reminder that Federer has won their last four matches?

It would be close, certainly. On a slow clay court like Monte Carlo, Nadal should edge it, but on slightly faster dirt I'd say advantage Federer.
 
#3 ·
We haven't seen a decent Federer on clay in about 2 years. He's likely to skip the whole clay season so we'll never know what he looks like on clay anymore.
 
#8 ·
so we'll never know what he looks like on clay anymore.
It's fair to say we don't know what Nadal looks like on clay either. He was not pushed enough in this tournament to reveal his true level. If what we've seen in the last few games of the QF is his max, then I'd go with Federer. But I assume he's been saving energy.
 
#5 ·
Yes, in a one-off best of 3 match Federer is now the clear favourite, even on clay. Miami was so slow and yet Roger won all the big points. Many of their previous clay meetings were decided by a few points in the final set, so Roger would have won if he'd had the backhand he does now.
 
#7 ·
probably yet another trolling thread (which are weirdly openly rampant in GM lately), but obviously we haven't seen Federer play on clay this year yet so the this is kind of a silly question.
 
#9 ·
He would've double breadsticked Rafa. If Mourier gifts Nadal 2 games that is.

But seriously, with that top half he would've been a lock for the final. And he owns Nadal now regardless of the surface. Huge chance missed for Rogie to add this prestigious tournament to his tally.
 
#14 ·
That moment when the old man beat Rafa in their last four meetings and all his delusional fans can do is fantasize about a clay meeting.

Call me when Nadal wins a single WTF title.
 
#19 ·
No, I believe Rafa was playing good enough to be 80/20 favorite on this surface.

Fed might actually have a better shot in RG if Rafa overplays, especially if RG will have smaller balls like AO or like they had in RG 2011. Taking this clay season is very, very smart decision from Federer, he has entered too many times into RG with a psychological disadvantage against Nadal because of beatings in tournaments like MC.

Even if RG is not a pivotal tournament for Federer, carrying this psychological advantage into fast court season will be great. If they play each other in say Usopen SF I think it might be an easy straight sets victory.
 
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#23 ·
On clay you can see Nadal's retrieving ability is FAR better than on hardcourt (and that's saying a lot, because his retrieving ability is great on hardcourt).
Nadal moves a lot better on clay than on hardcourt.
This is why Federer has so much trouble beating Nadal on clay, because no matter how aggressive Federer is, he has trouble ending the points on clay.
Nadal is FAR better on clay, far tougher to hit through.
 
#24 ·
Imo Federer should play Madrid. He'd pick up some points and have a decent shot against Nadal there. But Roger only has eyes for Wimbledon, and I guess I can understand that.
 
#25 ·
Don't think so, but he would've fought harder than the mugs Nadal beat en route to the title.
 
#37 ·
Yeah, but i think he has rested a lot and just started lightly training up again in dubai. Can see him skip french or play it. Have a feeling he will play.

No

Federer was burn out after Miami and need to rest

Now is time for RAFA to make some tournaments and some points. Nadal needs to really max out on clay, including RG for a nice lead in the race going into grass and then hard and then indoor if he wants any chance at YE #1, especially if Roger continues with his Serena schedule
Except nadal has played a pretty heavy hard court season with some deep runs: abu dhabi, brisbane, aussie open, acupulco, indian wells, miami, and now monte carlo

He is then playing barcelona, madrid, rome, only to play french open... that seems like a bit bunch with his history of injuries or just overplaying at 31 years old.
 
#36 ·
No

Federer was burn out after Miami and need to rest

Now is time for RAFA to make some tournaments and some points. Nadal needs to really max out on clay, including RG for a nice lead in the race going into grass and then hard and then indoor if he wants any chance at YE #1, especially if Roger continues with his Serena schedule
 
#39 ·
even on high bouncy slow hard courts fed's backhand is immune to nadal's topspin.

nadal has nowhere to go and fed no longer allows the match to be a grindfest. Fed is full of confidence right now.

regardelss, nadal is goign to burn himself out with the amount of tennis he has played by the time RG rolls around.
 
#40 ·
I really hope Fraud takes a WC into one or both of Madrid/Rome and gets placed in RAFA's half. After reading the responses, a beatdown ala Rome 2013 style or RG '08 style would knock some sense into them.
 
#41 · (Edited)
The next time fed plays rafa will be post RG. I'm sure you will pick rafa to win that match of course. Guess we will see. Once fed has ever figured out opponents who really beat him he would go on double digit wins in a row after that..hewitt used to lead 8-2 over federer and fed won the next 16 out of 17 matches.
 
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