Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record? - MensTennisForums.com

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post #1 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 08:17 PM Thread Starter
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Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

Can he do it? Some say it is impossible, I belive it is close to impossible. I think the word impossible is overused in general, The consistency of Roger Federers last 3 years has been amazing and unmatched in tennis history. 8 grand slams in 3 years is a record by far, so is 10+master series in 3 years and he is +30titles in 3 years which is close to a record. What is incredible is that these 3 years has almost been all the same quality with a slight improvement the last year. 10 straight GS semifinals, 6 straight GS finals...

This year he played 17 staraight finals, his ranking has improved since last year, which was an improvement from the end of 2004. This year he will probably end with +8000 points.

This is not only admiration about the statistics, I am trying to point out that Federer is actualy improving for every year. He has improved in clay to the point that no one in the world can beat him besides Nadal. On other surfaces he is praticaly invincible. In 2004 he used to lose against avarage players in early rounds, not anymore. What else is impressive is that he never gets injured.

Now, if he could keep the consistency for another 4 years and not get injured he could beat Connors 105 tournament record!

I am not saying he will do it, neither that his chanses are great, but that it is a possiblity.

Lets say he ends this season with 45 tournaments.

Next 4 years, could be just as good if not better. He could win 40-45 tournaments in these years and be close to 90 just turning 29 years old.

Then it is all up to his longevity, Agassi was world nr1 when he was 31-32 years old. Federer does have the passion and discipline to do the same, he just needs the luck to keep away from injury.

If I could beat on 10 to 1 on Federer winning +105, I would do it. I give him about a 20% chanse to do it. What do you say?
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post #2 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 08:25 PM
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Re: Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

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Originally Posted by marcRD View Post
...
If I could beat on 10 to 1 on Federer winning +105, I would do it. I give him about a 20% chanse to do it. What do you say?
Don't do it even if you get 1000:1. He will not get close to 105.

BTW you have some very remarkable ways of expressing odds. You say it is almost impossible for Fed to surpass Connors, but you still give him a 20% chance of making it.


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post #3 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 08:26 PM
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Re: Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

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Originally Posted by marcRD View Post
Can he do it? Some say it is impossible, I belive it is close to impossible. I think the word impossible is overused in general, The consistency of Roger Federers last 3 years has been amazing and unmatched in tennis history. 8 grand slams in 3 years is a record by far, so is 10+master series in 3 years and he is +30titles in 3 years which is close to a record. What is incredible is that these 3 years has almost been all the same quality with a slight improvement the last year. 10 straight GS semifinals, 6 straight GS finals...

This year he played 17 staraight finals, his ranking has improved since last year, which was an improvement from the end of 2004. This year he will probably end with +8000 points.

This is not only admiration about the statistics, I am trying to point out that Federer is actualy improving for every year. He has improved in clay to the point that no one in the world can beat him besides Nadal. On other surfaces he is praticaly invincible. In 2004 he used to lose against avarage players in early rounds, not anymore. What else is impressive is that he never gets injured.

Now, if he could keep the consistency for another 4 years and not get injured he could beat Connors 105 tournament record!

I am not saying he will do it, neither that his chanses are great, but that it is a possiblity.

Lets say he ends this season with 45 tournaments.

Next 4 years, could be just as good if not better. He could win 40-45 tournaments in these years and be close to 90 just turning 29 years old.

Then it is all up to his longevity, Agassi was world nr1 when he was 31-32 years old. Federer does have the passion and discipline to do the same, he just needs the luck to keep away from injury.

If I could beat on 10 to 1 on Federer winning +105, I would do it. I give him about a 20% chanse to do it. What do you say?

Connors was a greedy nutcase, but Federer is smart
Connors loved MM tourneys, but Federer prefers Slams & AMS/TMC
Connors won many events that were only 16-man draws, not fair
Connors was still winning ATP events at age 37yrs, Fed will retire at 32-34

......What Connors did is still remarkable ,however it`s a different World now & old Jimbo`s record looks safe .
Fed will probably win 75-90 titles ~that`s more than Sampras~~~ & Roger will also have more than Sampras in another category
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post #4 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 08:54 PM
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Re: Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

Won't reach Connors' overall total, but already surpassed him in the GS.

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post #5 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 08:59 PM
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Re: Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

Conners won mostly MM events, some with only a 4 man draw

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post #6 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 09:01 PM
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Re: Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

Federer probably won't break that mark, but it isn't because he can't. I think he's smarter than that. It is no good for him to play too much tennis, so he plays the big ones. I think the records Rogi will break will be more important than connors' 105 wins.
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post #7 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 09:02 PM
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Re: Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

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Originally Posted by Blaze-2004 View Post
Conners won mostly MM events, some with only a 4 man draw
Yes, so even if Fed can't beat this record, he has broken/will break enough other records that mean more.
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post #8 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 09:03 PM
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Re: Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

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Originally Posted by cmurray View Post
Federer probably won't break that mark, but it isn't because he can't. I think he's smarter than that. It is no good for him to play too much tennis, so he plays the big ones. I think the records Rogi will break will be more important than connors' 105 wins.
That's what I was trying to say, except you said it better
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post #9 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 09:14 PM
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Re: Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

The answer is NO. Cmonaussie has already written why
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post #10 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 09:15 PM
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Re: Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

He probably won't play enough tournaments to do that, I think there's a slight possibility he'll break it though. I'd bet on 1000/1 odds

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post #11 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 09:25 PM
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Re: Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

No.

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post #12 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 09:30 PM
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Re: Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

Absolutely no chance, but to be fair this isn't that important a record. I can't really say it any better than cmurray did a few posts earlier.
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post #13 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 11:18 PM
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Re: Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

He will not even break Lendl's record. (94) By the way, extrapolation is not a good method to make probabilistic statements for this case. The fact that Roger has won 30 tournaments in the last 3 years (32 if we go from Vienna 2003) does not mean that he is likely to win 40 tournaments in the next 4 years.

A better way to approach the question is to take all slam winners of the last 30 years and examine the time span between their first and last title.

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post #14 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 11:29 PM
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Re: Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

Put it this way: if he reaches 80 I'll cut off my own Johnson
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post #15 of 63 (permalink) Old 10-09-2006, 11:36 PM
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Re: Can Federer beat Connors 105 tournys record?

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Put it this way: if he reaches 80 I'll cut off my own Johnson
He is at the median of his tennis life (barring injuries), but the first half is almost always more productive than the second half. He has 42 now, my guess is that your Johnson is safe but it is good that you will not formally put it down in a contract

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