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post #1 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-08-2017, 08:54 PM Thread Starter
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19th Grand Slam or Oldest Number 1

MTF Denizens…

OK, M250s are a slow time for me so...

Let me start by saying all this depends on Federer’s continued good health.

If Federer stays healthy do you feel he would rather have a 19th GS (consensus would say Wimbledon) or be the oldest man to reach the Number 1 ranking in the open era? I have a feeling that he would greatly enjoy the latter (assuming they are not necessarily mutually exclusive). He obviously cares about his legacy and becoming the oldest man to be number one I think would be a fabulous feather in his cap.

If he has a successful Dubai (W) and Indian Wells (SF or better) I think all the Fed fans will be speculating. And if not then threads go someplace to die right?

After the AO I would imagine he feels his record of 18 slams is much safer than his 17 was before given the age of Nadal (and injury history) and Djokovic (and his larger six slam gap). I think how many M1000s Federer plays between Indian Wells and RG will show what he is thinking. He has already committed to Miami, although that does not mean he will play as the past has shown us. If he plays only one M1000 I feel he is truly focusing on Wimbledon. If he plays three he is going for YE. Two M1000s would be ambiguous. I think we will see him in MC and Rome.

As a Fed fan I feel with his great start (combined with Murray/Djokovic’s bad start – for them) and hoped for sustained health I can get my hopes up. Yes I know it is a long season and we have only started but a man can dream right?

Only four men have any chance of finishing YE#1…and many people here would say only two, Murray and Djokovic. I think Federer, always a bit confident, may like his chances in a year where I feel the final point total for YE#1 will be much lower than in recent past.

Concerning Murray….well after his first YE#1 he proceeded to lose to Novak (whom many folks still feel is the real “#1”) in their first match. He then got bushwhacked by a low ranked serve and volleyer in what was meant to be his AO coming out party. What happens to him mentally if he either losses early in Dubai or, as I think, losses to Federer in the final? Then comes IW where his results the past 5-6 years have not been that good. If his first four tournaments are negative where is he mentally? I also think that despite his greatness as a tennis player he is not dominating as the other Big 3 have been at times in their careers and also Federer does not “fear” him the same way as Novak/Rafa.

Novak….who knows where he is mentally right now. He could come back and take the rest of the season by storm, but I don’t get that feeling. Also, how is his shoulder? Novak only became a truly great player when his first and second serve improved. If he has shoulder issues that will put much more pressure on his defensive skills…..and he is getting older for chasing down every single shot. By the end of Miami he is normally 1000s of points ahead of everyone….not the case this year.

Rafa….well is he back? He looked good at the AO. I feel if he is healthy he can still dominate the clay season, especially if Novak is not inform. However with Murray, Djokovic and Stan (assuming he gets back healthy) around I feel that domination is more like 4000 clay points versus the 5000 of years past. As always for YE#1 with Rafa it depends on his after RG form. His recent years and injury history make me feel he can’t quite compete for YE#1 right now. However, AO was a great start.

Thoughts?
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post #2 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-08-2017, 08:59 PM
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Re: 19th Grand Slam or Oldest Number 1

19th Grand Slam definitely... Oldest number 1 would be nice but Federer already has the most weeks at number 1 and I wouldn't be too fussed if someone breaks that record. The slam record is far more important and I want Federer to make it even more safe by winning #19. And there is no better feeling as a fan than seeing your favourite player win a slam. When Roger won #18, it was the greatest sporting moment of my life and I am still on a high 10 days later. I doubt getting to number 1 would make me feel that way so another slam definitely.

Last edited by Wazza; 02-08-2017 at 09:02 PM.
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post #3 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-08-2017, 09:05 PM Thread Starter
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Re: 19th Grand Slam or Oldest Number 1

I can agree with how awesome the AO was this year.

I just think from his perspective how satisfying it would be to dominate...then regress a bit as younger ATGs out-performed him...and then regain the crown, especially in this age of ultra-physical tennis.
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post #4 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-08-2017, 09:28 PM
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Re: 19th Grand Slam or Oldest Number 1

I think fed has a shot at both this year but it is all gravy. Fed is going to play with no pressure since he just won a slam and is full of confidence.

If he stays healthy I think he will have a semis at minimum run at both Wimbledon and US open. Then Draws come into play to some degree and if the courts are sped up this year like im guessing they will be. The us open is always quicker than aussie open. In 2014 aussie open was considered quicker and then us open was lightning fast esp on arther ashe as we saw what cilic did.
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post #5 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-09-2017, 05:59 AM
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Guys I think we are overreacting a bit.

Ok, he won the AO in a dramatic fashion and I loved it, but it's just one tournament in an 11 months season.

I'd say he has a better shot at winning one more major than achieving #1 honestly. We don't even know if he'll manage to stay healthy all season and he said he'll have a reduced schedule this year. This means #1 should be out of reach unless all other top guys go completely AWOL for the rest of the year.

About winning another major, you should consider he hadn't won one in 4,5 years before the AO and everything just fell in place there to get #18. He might have chances at Wimbledon but he needs some openings in the draw (or at least no brutal draw) and top form to have a chance.

We'll see, but as of now I'll just enjoy #18.
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post #6 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-09-2017, 06:04 AM
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Re: 19th Grand Slam or Oldest Number 1





But 19 majors > number 1 again definitely.
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post #7 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-09-2017, 06:50 AM
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Re: 19th Grand Slam or Oldest Number 1

We all need to calm down. I still think that it is very unlikely that Federer gets another slam. Getting to Nr 1 is almost impossible.

Everything came together at the AO. It won't happen again. And we still don't know what all this did to Federers body.

Federer & Wawrinka -> unstoppable Swiss power
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post #8 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-09-2017, 06:53 AM
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Re: 19th Grand Slam or Oldest Number 1

Number 1 would obviously be an awesome achievement at 36 if he did it, but it has to be no.19, if he got it would end absolutely any chances of Djokovic and Nadal (although they are very remote now anyway) taking over him therefore leaving Roger out on his own for generations in all likely hood.
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post #9 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-09-2017, 07:06 AM
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Re: 19th Grand Slam or Oldest Number 1

The number one ranking cannot deliver the visceral thrill of winning a grand slam final. Heck, the top ranking could even come on an off week. No contest because the kick is in playing.
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post #10 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-09-2017, 07:12 AM
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Re: 19th Grand Slam or Oldest Number 1

Why not both?

Main favorites:

ATP: Roger Federer Stan Wawrinka
WTA: Legend Martina Hingis Garbine Muguruza Petra Kvitova

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post #11 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-09-2017, 07:43 AM
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Re: 19th Grand Slam or Oldest Number 1

As MTF poster Roy Emerson would say: 'Neither have ever been done in the Open Era'.

But for those who like to delve into the realms of fantasy:

Agassi's last week at #1 was at 33y 4m 3d.
Lendl's Year End#1 was at 29y 9m 24d.

One has to think that he must win another major this year to have a good chance to reach #1. He is unlikely going to play as heavy a schedule as Murray did last year. So based on that, one would have to logically say that #19 will have to come first, or none of it will happen.

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post #12 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-09-2017, 09:08 AM
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Re: 19th Grand Slam or Oldest Number 1

Most likely, he will either get both of those or none. There's a decent chance for another slam this year, and that would probably seal the deal for the year end #1.
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post #13 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-09-2017, 09:31 AM
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19th, so that he can aim for 20. Having 300 weeks of number 1 to himself is good enough.
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post #14 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-09-2017, 09:35 AM
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Re: 19th Grand Slam or Oldest Number 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by bighax View Post
Most likely, he will either get both of those or none. There's a decent chance for another slam this year, and that would probably seal the deal for the year end #1.
Not necessarily. Look at Wawrinka. If he had won AO and held a second Slam, he would have still been far away from No 1.

Some random guy just watching tennis.
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post #15 of 21 (permalink) Old 02-09-2017, 09:57 AM
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Re: 19th Grand Slam or Oldest Number 1

I think at this point slams have to be the priority over the no1 ranking. He's got a great chance of winning Wimbledon and USO but I think he'll lose to much ground on clay to Murray Djokovic and Nadal to seriously challenge for the no1 ranking.
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