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Isn't Nadal being overestimated in this tournament?

4K views 63 replies 27 participants last post by  Criollo 
#1 · (Edited)
I've watched the match against Zverev and I don't think he was very good. He was decent, but nothing really special. Zverev looked tired since the start of the 4th set, still Nadal found a way to lose serve in the decider, was lucky Sascha cramped.

I decided to check some stats and saw most of his recent wins were against players ranked very poor.

Last Top 15 Win - Nishikori in April, he's 0-4 since there.

And he's projected to face only top 15 players now.

Recent history says he may not even beat Monfils. :shrug:
 
#3 ·
There are three things good for Nadal:
1) He survived early rounds including match against hard-hitting Zverev and his level usually ups in the second week
2) No Djokovic and Murray in the draw
3) He's the only player with clear matchup advantage over Federer
Will it be enough for victory? I don't know but it's possible.
 
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#5 ·
Yes. He barely beat anyone of significance and also he was not playing any better than in 2016 except he is mentally a little better. I will not give him a chance against any of the remaining players in his draw. :lol: I personally feel, this is to make the trolls good about it so that Nadal's loss can used against them to gloat around. :lol:
 
#7 ·
Nadal still looks like the nigh-unbeatable player of old, so when I see him coming through the draw, I think of how it was to root against him in his prime - the absurd defense, the out-of-nowhere forehands hitting lines and corners, the brutal injections of pace. It's almost impossible to beat this Rafa. You need a good Novak, Federer on a fast or indoor court, or a peaking ballbasher. So when I see him playing the same way, with the same intensity, it's natural to assume that he's going to win.

Nadal's power and speed have deteriorated, though, and hopefully it's enough for Raonic or Dimitrov to knock him off before the final. Federer's been knocking on the door of #18 for years, it's his time.
 
#12 ·
Nadal still looks like the nigh-unbeatable player of old, so when I see him coming through the draw, I think of how it was to root against him in his prime - the absurd defense, the out-of-nowhere forehands hitting lines and corners, the brutal injections of pace.
Federer has a mental block against Nadal and the moonballs to the backhand are something I'm pretty sure Nadal can still do. Still, I actually agree that it would be a toss up. But Nadal would much much rather play Federer than Murray/Djokovic, who he's just not fast or powerful enough to keep up with anymore.

Not sure Monfils has the fitness to beat Nadal in 3/5, even declined Nadal, and Raonic vs any top player is a toss up.
I'm pretty sure my TV showed another match in R3 than. :shrug:

In the one I watched, Nadal missed several passing shots similar to those he's used to make 9 out of 10 in his prime years and his moonball forehand wasn't moonballing much, the heavy topspin wasn't that heavy anymore and most of the balls were falling either short or without power.

I think it's the best chance ever for Monfils to beat Nadal in a slam, and even if he fails (like he usually does), a highly motivated and improved Raonic will be pretty much impossible for him at his current level.



This was Peak Nadal, barely any resemblance.
 
#8 ·
Last time when there was no Murray or Djokovic in the draw, between Federer and #18 was Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori waiting in the final.

And last time when there was no Murray or Djokovic in the draw, between double CGS and Nadal was Wawrinka, trailing 0-12, 0-26 in sets.

And we have 2017, not 2014. Both coming back after longer absences.

Just a random thought in relation to all this opening paths speculations.

There were chances in the past. Taking those chances is significant difference.
 
#10 ·
I think Nadal is still the guy on the tour who MOST want to win. He isn't as clutch as earlier, but there is still some determination. So i would never count him out. Like Federer, he earned that respect by some hard fought wins.

If he wins the AO, though, i would be disgusted to no limits. But since Trump became president, i believe its the year that destiny wants to fuck with us anyways.
 
#16 ·
To be fair, no he isn't on ESPN. As far as title contenders go, they've spent a lot more time talking about Federer, Wawrinka and Raonic. And these are the guys like John McEnroe who've had their heads up Rafa's butt for the last decade.

If anything, he's being slightly underestimated by ESPN and American media from what I've seen? But obviously I feel he belongs behind those guys in terms of likelihood to win the whole thing. Monfils will be a tough out tonight.
 
#17 ·
Monfils has absolutely no clue of how to beat Nadal, unless Nadal is in horrible form (like he often is at Doha, the only place Monfils ever beat Nadal).
Its a horrible mismatch and Nadal will destroy him like its nothing.

And after that will be Raonic.
Raonic struggled like crazy to beat Nadal at Brisbane.
Nadal was on top, won the first set and was outplaying Raonic in the 2nd set until being broken very late.
I think Nadal would have won if it was best-of-5-sets, even though Brisbane is an ideal speed for Raonic.
Raonic won the match via 3 games - the last 2 games of the 2nd set, and the first game of the 3rd set.
Nadal was consistently the better player, and Raonic had to "go for broke" and hit big winners to have a chance of breaking Nadal.
Raonic would need to take too many risks to win 3 sets.
I don't give Raonic a chance of beating Nadal at the AO, especially if its a night match because Nadal generated way more top spin in the night session according to the commentator's stats.
 
#18 ·
I thought Zverev and Nadal were both mediocre in their match. Neither looked capable of winning the tournament. So I don't see why Nadal's win is such a big deal, especially when he barely outlasted him.

Nadal doesn't have the weapons to win another slam. His forehand even misfires constantly compared to his prime.
 
#20 ·
The most error-prone forehand hitting I've ever seen from Nadal was in the Dimitrov match at 2014 AO, which Nadal won despite the hand blisters.
And Dimitrov was a better player back then than he is today.
And that will be Nadal's SF opponent, and the perfect preparation for a Final with Federer.
Nadal doesn't need a great forehand to win this AO, because he has no problem outgrinding Monfils, Raonic, Dimitrov and doing his thing vs Federer.
I mean the Raonic match is different but Nadal never tries to hit big winners vs Raonic, he just puts Raonic in difficult positions, and that is what the AO surface is made for (unlike the Brisbane surface), because Nadal gets great top spin purchase on the AO surface.
 
#19 ·
how is he overestimated?I watched his full matches here and he s been above his 2015 and 2016 level for sure here..way closer to 2014 than the previous years.Nadal is a fighter ,his forehand is still there (it s not peak of course but that doesn t make it shit),his defense is still top notch..nadal is dangerous IMO.But let s see it might be a hard match against gael.
 
#22 ·
Nah, the worst Nadal has ever hit his forehand was the 2014 AO, constant errors in the Nishikori and Dimitrov matches (and it was because of the hand blisters).
This year his forehand has been very consistent, not the best but definitely not error-prone.
Yeah he doesn't control the points with his forehand as much now, but its not "error-prone".
 
#23 ·
I have followed Nadal's career more closely than anyone. His forehand and overall game have never been worse than now. He has no weapons and can't dictate. He is a run of the mill top 20 player. I have no clue how you think he's going to beat a top player with actual weapons.

He also no longer has his aura, which is what got him most of his success in 2013.
 
#24 ·
in my opinion its dangerous to underestimate Nadal, speaking as a Federer fan of course, I still maintain that he is the fave of the likely four contenders Wawrinka, Raonic, Federer and Nadal.
 
#26 ·
RAFA is underestimated here greatly. RAFA of '15 & '16 would have lost to Zverev in straight sets but instead he won it. He is also healthy and motivated and frankly no one in the draw can stop him at the point.
 
#32 ·
RAFA haters will face the reality soon, not the other way round when he completes the DCGS on 29th Jan :yeah:

No one is beating RAFA this year at the AO. RAFA is back!
 
#33 ·
Most of the players are actually saying the courts are fast, even at night.

Look what Gasquet said after today's match, for example:

"Le court était hyper rapide, les balles n'étaient pas vives et ne prenaient pas le lift. Il y avait peu de rebond. J'ai su très vite que ça allait être compliqué. Les conditions l'avantageaient, quand même. C'était les pires pour moi."

One of the french posters can correct if my translation is wrong.

The court was super fast, the balls were not vivid and did not take the lift. There was little rebound. I knew very quickly that it was going to be complicated. Conditions favored him, nevertheless. It was the worst for me.
 
#35 ·
Draw doesn't matter for inform RAFA since he beats them all (no negative slam H2H where multiple matches are played). RAFA has already beaten tons of times and it'll be the same this time.
 
#39 ·
Abu Dhabi 2016/2017 :lol: Yes officially Doha 2014 is the last time he won a hard court title. If I remember correctly he has not even made a final after Miami 2014.
 
#37 ·
Probably had a long hardcourt drought before 2013 Indian Wells too, and he ended up winning 3 hardcourt masters that year and the 2013 US Open.
Conversely he won 2010 US Open, after struggling at Canada and Cincy.
There is no rhyme or reason to Nadal's hardcourt career.
 
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