Djokovic is the bookmakers' favourite to win AO - Page 3 - MensTennisForums.com
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post #31 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 02:09 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Djokovic is the bookmakers' favourite to win AO

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Post-prime Djokovic will undoubtedly debut this season.
Post-prime Djokovic will debut in 2019. If you are 30, it doesn't mean you are past your prime. It depends from player to player. I predict in 2017 and 2018 Novak will be playing close to his level shown in the first half of 2016
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post #32 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 02:13 AM
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Re: Djokovic is the bookmakers' favourite to win AO

Nah, Djokovic's team said he can maintain his form for another 4 years at minimum. Expect Djokovic to be BOATing until 2022 at least.
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post #33 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 02:47 AM
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Re: Djokovic is the bookmakers' favourite to win AO

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Novak will be playing close to his level shown in the first half of 2016
As I said, his level will dip SUBTLY at first. Remember what people thought about Federer in 2012 and Nadal in 2013? Djokovic is definitely less destructible than any other all time great, but his time will come sooner than anyone is willing to admit. That said, he can still win slams post-prime.
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post #34 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 03:03 AM Thread Starter
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As I said, his level will dip SUBTLY at first. Remember what people thought about Federer in 2012 and Nadal in 2013? Djokovic is definitely less destructible than any other all time great, but his time will come sooner than anyone is willing to admit. That said, he can still win slams post-prime.
In order to enter post-prime, you level needs to dip to a great extent.

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post #35 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 03:50 AM
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Re: Djokovic is the bookmakers' favourite to win AO

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In order to enter post-prime, you level needs to dip to a great extent.
Not really. Federer was already entering post-prime in 2012 when he won Wimbledon, as was Nadal in 2014 when he won RG. This is why both of them had poor follow-up seasons. Likewise, Djokovic's level dropped significantly during the latter half of 2016 compared to the previous year. All three are able to buoy their level back up temporarily (the duration of which depends on age and playstyle), but will never again dominate for entire seasons as they did during their prime years. Djokovic prime was 2011-2016.
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post #36 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 04:05 AM
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Re: Djokovic is the bookmakers' favourite to win AO

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Every single one of those books bans longterm winners, so you're not exactly talking sharp pricing.

Want a more reliably accurate price, look at pinnacle or betfair.
Real surprise for me was seeing RAFA as the #4 favorite

Current Betfair:

Djokovic- 2.72
Murray- 2.82
Wawrinka- 15.5
Nadal- 18
Raonic- 26
Federer- 27
Nishikori- 50
Pouille- 50
Dimitrov- 55
Kyrgios- 60
Zverev- 85

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post #37 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 04:39 AM
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Re: Djokovic is the bookmakers' favourite to win AO

Djokovic is barely the favourite according to these odds. it's quite a difference from last year.

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post #38 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 01:57 PM
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Re: Djokovic is the bookmakers' favourite to win AO

Nole is so unconstant that I'dn't bet a euro on him
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post #39 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 03:18 PM Thread Starter
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Not really. Federer was already entering post-prime in 2012 when he won Wimbledon, as was Nadal in 2014 when he won RG. This is why both of them had poor follow-up seasons. Likewise, Djokovic's level dropped significantly during the latter half of 2016 compared to the previous year. All three are able to buoy their level back up temporarily (the duration of which depends on age and playstyle), but will never again dominate for entire seasons as they did during their prime years. Djokovic prime was 2011-2016.
Djokovic PEAK was 2011-2016 but his PRIME began in 2007 and will end in 2019. There is a difference between "peak" and "prime".
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post #40 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 03:22 PM
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Re: Djokovic is the bookmakers' favourite to win AO

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Djokovic PEAK was 2011-2016 but his PRIME began in 2007 and will end in 2019. There is a difference between "peak" and "prime".
So Djokovic's prime is 2007-2011, peak 2011-2016 while Federer's prime is 2004-2005 and peak 2006-2007. Got it.





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Last edited by Master Yoda; 01-10-2017 at 03:25 PM.
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post #41 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 03:41 PM
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Re: Djokovic is the bookmakers' favourite to win AO

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Djokovic PEAK was 2011-2016 but his PRIME began in 2007 and will end in 2019. There is a difference between "peak" and "prime".
Djokovic's prime is 2011-today, and his peak is AO 2011 - AO 2012 and AO 2015 - RG 2016.
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post #42 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 04:19 PM
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Re: Djokovic is the bookmakers' favourite to win AO

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So Djokovic's prime is 2007-2011, peak 2011-2016 while Federer's prime is 2004-2005 and peak 2006-2007. Got it.
Yes on Djokovic

For Federer, prime was Halle 2003-Wimbledon 2012. Peak was YEC 2003 to Dubai 2007.

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post #43 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 04:31 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Djokovic is the bookmakers' favourite to win AO

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Djokovic's prime is 2011-today, and his peak is AO 2011 - AO 2012 and AO 2015 - RG 2016.
Djokovic prime started in Miami in 2007.
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post #44 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 06:01 PM
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Re: Djokovic is the bookmakers' favourite to win AO

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Djokovic prime started in Miami in 2007.
That was pre-prime, undeveloped Djokovic. Djokovic 2011+ is prime - he is entirely different and much better player comparing to pre-2011 even when he is not at his peak.
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post #45 of 64 (permalink) Old 01-10-2017, 07:58 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Djokovic is the bookmakers' favourite to win AO

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That was pre-prime, undeveloped Djokovic. Djokovic 2011+ is prime - he is entirely different and much better player comparing to pre-2011 even when he is not at his peak.
Djokovic entered his prime in 2007 https://youtu.be/9a8TbVJHbpA
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