Mens Tennis Forums banner

Masters 1000 Career Analysis - Active Players (Update in Post #43)

5K views 42 replies 18 participants last post by  David T Hume 
#1 · (Edited)
Everyone knows that Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Murray are far and away the best active Masters 1000 players, but I decided to analyze the Masters 1000 careers of all active players with a career high ranking of 40 or better. I identified a total of 91 players that met this criteria and then I specifically decided to calculate for each player the % of M1000 tournaments in which a QF or better was reached. Since I compiled this data manually (see attached screenshots), please let me know of any errors.

Observations
-Only 11 players (Big 4, Berdych, Ferrer, Raonic, Tsonga, del Potro, Nishikori, Wawrinka) have advanced to a QF or better in over 20% of their M1000 tournaments and only the Big 4 have advanced to a QF or better in over 50% of their M1000 tournaments
-Goffin (17.86%) and Kyrgios (14.29%) have had the best M1000 careers so far of any players with a career high outside of the Top 10 (and both of these players are likely to crack the Top 10)
-Cilic (13.89%) has the worst M1000 career of any player with a career high of 6 or better (even with his recent win)
-Volandri (11.11%) has the most surprisingly high ranking on the list (by far the highest of any player with career high outside the Top 20)
-28 players have never advanced to a QF or better (ranging from Zverev with only 9 tournaments to Mahut with 40 tournaments)
-Of these 28 players, only Pablo Cuevas (career high of 19) has a career high within the Top 20
 

Attachments

See less See more
4
#17 ·
Re: Masters 1000 Career Analysis - Active Players

There is a slight error in the Nadal stats. He lost the 2012 Miami SF against Murray on WO. A WO is not counted as an official loss. So he cant' have 28 titles, 70 losses and 98 tournaments played as 28+70=98 and he should have one tournament without both a title and a loss.

Correct is 99 played.
 
#23 ·
Re: Masters 1000 Career Analysis - Active Players

The Big Four term was just a promotional term to increase interest in men's elite tennis. Same with "NextGen".

IMO - in terms of active players - Murray is in a group on his own. He's nowhere near Rafa/Roger/Nole but he's WELL above every other player outside of those three. I mean you only have to look at Slasher's GOAT list to see that Murray is MILES above all other active players but also MILES below Rafa/Roger/Nole.

For me it's...

Roger
Rafa
Nole

Murray

Everyone else.

As I said these terms "Big Four" and "Next Gen" are purely a means of boosting the popularity of men's elite tennis.
 
#41 ·
Re: Masters 1000 Career Analysis - Active Players

The Big Four term was just a promotional term to increase interest in men's elite tennis. Same with "NextGen".

IMO - in terms of active players - Murray is in a group on his own. He's nowhere near Rafa/Roger/Nole but he's WELL above every other player outside of those three. I mean you only have to look at Slasher's GOAT list to see that Murray is MILES above all other active players but also MILES below Rafa/Roger/Nole.

For me it's...

Roger
Rafa
Nole

Murray

Everyone else.

As I said these terms "Big Four" and "Next Gen" are purely a means of boosting the popularity of men's elite tennis.
Roger
Nole
Rafa

Murray


Everyone else.
 
#27 ·
Re: Masters 1000 Career Analysis - Active Players

Thanks for embedding the images. That is what I wanted to do, but when I clicked on the "Insert Image" icon a popup asks to "Please enter the URL of your image". How do you embed the images in the text of the message?

Thanks,

-David
 
#31 ·
Re: Masters 1000 Career Analysis - Active Players

This discussion about the "Big 4" is not the intended purpose of this thread. I would like to get this thread back on topic so here are a few questions for discussion.

1) From the second tier of players (Berdych, Ferrer, Raonic, Tsonga, del Potro, Nishikori, Wawrinka) who will end up with the best Masters 1000 career and who will have the best M1000 season in 2017?
  • Berdych is 31 yrs 2 mths old and has declined. Despite reaching 4 M1000 QFs in 2016, his 12-9 record was his worst since he went 9-9 in 2009.
  • Ferrer is 34 yrs 8 mths old and has declined significantly. 2016 was his first year since 2009 that he failed to reach at least the QF in any M1000 tournament. He also finished the year ranked outside the Top 20 for the first time since 2004.
  • Raonic turns 26 on Dec. 27th of this year. He reached the QF or better in 7/9 of the M1000 tournaments in 2016 (same as in 2014).
  • Tsonga is 31 yrs 7 mths old. He reached the QF or better in 4/7 of the M1000 tournaments in 2016.
  • del Potro is 28 yrs 2 mths old. He played in only 4 M1000 tournaments in 2016 and did not advance beyond the 2nd round in any of them.
  • Nishikori turns 27 on Dec. 29th of this year. He had his best ever M1000 season in 2016 by reaching the QF or better in 5/7 tournaments with 2 Finals and 2 SFs.
  • Wawrinka is 31 yrs 8 mths old. He reached the QF or better in only 2/9 of the M1000 tournaments in 2016.

2) Besides Alexander Zverev, which of the other 27 players that have never advanced to at least a M1000 QF have the best chance to reach a QF or better in 2017?

3) Will there be any first time M1000 winners in 2017 or will the Big 4 continue to dominate them?
 
#35 · (Edited)
Re: Masters 1000 Career Analysis - Active Players

This discussion about the "Big 4" is not the intended purpose of this thread. I would like to get this thread back on topic so here are a few questions for discussion.

1) From the second tier of players (Berdych, Ferrer, Raonic, Tsonga, del Potro, Nishikori, Wawrinka) who will end up with the best Masters 1000 career and who will have the best M1000 season in 2017?
  • Berdych is 31 yrs 2 mths old and has declined. Despite reaching 4 M1000 QFs in 2016, his 12-9 record was his worst since he went 9-9 in 2009.
  • Ferrer is 34 yrs 8 mths old and has declined significantly. 2016 was his first year since 2009 that he failed to reach at least the QF in any M1000 tournament. He also finished the year ranked outside the Top 20 for the first time since 2004.
  • Raonic turns 26 on Dec. 27th of this year. He reached the QF or better in 7/9 of the M1000 tournaments in 2016 (same as in 2014).
  • Tsonga is 31 yrs 7 mths old. He reached the QF or better in 4/7 of the M1000 tournaments in 2016.
  • del Potro is 28 yrs 2 mths old. He played in only 4 M1000 tournaments in 2016 and did not advance beyond the 2nd round in any of them.
  • Nishikori turns 27 on Dec. 29th of this year. He had his best ever M1000 season in 2016 by reaching the QF or better in 5/7 tournaments with 2 Finals and 2 SFs.
  • Wawrinka is 31 yrs 8 mths old. He reached the QF or better in only 2/9 of the M1000 tournaments in 2016.

2) Besides Alexander Zverev, which of the other 27 players that have never advanced to at least a M1000 QF have the best chance to reach a QF or better in 2017?

3) Will there be any first time M1000 winners in 2017 or will the Big 4 continue to dominate them?
1) For 2017, I don't see Berdych, Ferrer, or Wawrinka doing well in the Masters in 2017. Berdych has been pretty poor outside of the grand slams this year and I expect that to continue. He's outside the top 8 now so it's going to be hard for him to go deep. Ferrer couldn't reach a Master QF this year and I expect that to continue next year as he continues to decline. Wawrinka will probably be even more inconsistent next year and will have a bunch of early round losses. He's been pretty bad in the Masters this year.

Tsonga will probably reach a few QFs next year but I doubt he'll win any of them or even reach a Masters final. Del Potro could go deep in the Masters but his low ranking will make him waste his energy in the early rounds.

Raonic and Nishikori should do the best. They're in their physical prime so all they need is a little more mental strength when facing the Murray/Djokovic duo. They should be able to win a couple of Masters.

2) I was going to say Pouille, but then I remembered that he reached the Rome SF. I can't think of anyone right now.

3) I think the Masters will be significantly more open. Murray and Djokovic are getting older and they'll be more prone to upsets, especially outside of the grand slams. Federer probably can't win any of the clay masters anymore but he could still win Cincinnati or Shanghai. Nadal can win one of the clay masters but he's been pretty poor in the hard court masters as of late. I doubt either will win a Masters in 2017. I think Raonic and Nishikori will grab one each. Other possible contenders for maiden Masters 1000 titles are Monfils, Goffin, Thiem (if he's not burned out which he probably will be), Dimitrov (if he continues his higher level of play as of late), and Kyrgios. The chances of any of these guys winning a Masters 1000 is pretty low but it is still possible with the right draw.
 
  • Like
Reactions: David T Hume
#33 ·
Re: Masters 1000 Career Analysis - Active Players

It's quite painful that both Nishikori and Raonic still haven't won a masters yet. Both Murray and Djokovic will prioritise the slams next year so they should get a couple of chances now that they're in the top 5. They need to start winning something big to justify there ranking.
 
#36 ·
Re: Masters 1000 Career Analysis - Active Players

I think stan has made it pretty clear,he pretty much focuses on the slams ..he would probably have 2 masters if he wouldn t have met nadal in the madrid final 2013..but it is how it is .I kind of stand with the murray fans on this one ,a player of stans calibre should have really won atleast 2 more masters,I mean he still has a chance ,but I doubt it will happen.The true tragedy is if kei won t win even a freacking masters series in his career.And about murray s masters record,well his pushing game helps him alot there,since there are only 3 sets ,and players don t have the time to calibrate they re game and reduce the UE s he s drawing from them.
 
#37 ·
Re: Masters 1000 Career Analysis - Active Players

Particularly for Nishikori on clay if Djokovic would be upset early (like in MC this year) then he'd be able to face either Nadal or Murray to beat them even in the final in ideal case.
Raonic is not really good on faster hardcourt and clay, so his best chances would be IW and Miami.

Not giving any chances for Kyrgios, Pouille and Zverev, they still need to develop for a Masters win.

Thiem also could grab a clay Masters if he could summon his Nadal beating form.
 
#38 · (Edited)
Re: Masters 1000 Career Analysis - Active Players

Updated thru 2017 Indian Wells. Both Pablo Carreno Busta (in his 17th try) and Pablo Cuevas (in his 28th try) advanced to their first QF or better in a M1000 tournament at Indian Wells. Of course, Roger Federer won Indian Wells whereas Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Andy Murray all failed to advance to at least the QF.

I have expanded the dataset to include all active players with a career high of at least 50. There are currently 114 players that meet this criteria.


 
#40 ·
Re: Masters 1000 Career Analysis - Active Players (Update in Post #38)

I removed the filters from the column headings and renamed a few of them to increase the clarity and then updated the image in the post. Does this answer your question?

The "Win Rank (All-Time)" data is from the ATP World Tour "Win/Loss Index" and only players with at least 50 M1000 decisions are included in the database.

Fognini's % is embarrassing. What's the second column? (counting the #of mansters played as the 1st one)
 
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top