10 Stich def. Muster - not really that surprising. RG 1996 played really fast and obviously, the faster the better for Stich and the worse for Muster.
9 Bastl def Sampras - agree. A complete shocker.
8 Chang def Lendl - surprising indeed but perhaps rates behind the former
7 Rosol def Nadal - Nadal was often shaky in early rounds of W but no denying it was a shocker
6 Ivanisevic def Rafter - why is this on the list? I wasn't even surprised after the final.
5 Doohan def Becker - could be further up. Completely dumbfounded by this
4 Querrey def Djokovic - less surprising than the former but a worthy entry on the list
3 Krajicek def Sampras - shouldn't be on the list at all. It was well known already Krajicek was a problem opponent for Sampras.
2 Stakhovsky def Federer - Fed's 2013 was so weak the surprise was less than it would have been 2004-12 or 2014-15. So perhaps a bit further down the list.
Good calls there. I'd put Chang a bit further up maybe because he had to down no.1 and 2, both in tough 5 setters (down 0-2 against Lendl and cramping as well). Agree about no.1, of course. Sampras really had some big ones.
I really liked Becker's frankness about losing. "The guy just played better than me"
In my time following tennis, it to be Soderling over Nadal. I think one needs to fully understand the context of an upset to judge its significance and that's the one which left people truly shocked. People can come out with the excuses afterwards, but Nadal was steamrolling Hewitt, Daniel and someone else beforehand. Soderling showed what kind of a guy he is on that day.
Oddswise, the biggest upset of the past 5 years was actually Murray winning over Federer in the 2nd round of Cincy 2006. This may seem weird now, but in 2006, Federer only lost two matches on surfaces other than clay, that match and the Dubai final against Rafa. Roger won every other match. Odds on Murray were around 28.
2nd place: Canas bt Federer, IW, odds 26
3rd place: Troicki bt Djokovic, Umag, odds 22 (quite ridiculous, but this was before Nole started tanking in MM tournaments)
4th place: Ferrero bt Nadal, Rome, odds 20
5th place: Mathieu bt Roddick, Montreal 2005, odds 18 (this may also seem strange now, but back then Roddick was regarded as nearly unbeatable on (North) American hard courts).
Since then, Soderling - Rafa, Stakhovsky - Federer and Querrey - Djokovic have happened, they are all bigger upsets odds wise.
Darcis over Nadal I guess qualifies. Robredo was less of a surprise after Federer had lost to Stakhovsky, Delbonis and Brands recently. Nadal's loss to Rosol was assumed to be a once-off and his form was good.
Odds wise, people fancied the upset in this match, there are probably 250 matches in the last 10 years that were bigger upsets. Although this one was very memorable, especially since Djokovic has won every meeting since!
I think nobody doubts that the RAFA-Soderling match in 2009 is the biggest upset tennis history has ever had. That was a very tough loss. I didn't understand what was going on. Few months later I realized that the main reason why RAFA wasn't able to play his best at RG is a wrong schedule. He played a lot in the first part of the season, winning AO, IW, MC, Barcelona, Rome and having a very intense match against Djokovic at Madrid. The GOAT was simply gassed before RG. Nadal was so passionate and energetic that he wasn't able to make rational decisions. He should have skipped some big tournaments or tank them to save some energy for RG. Had RAFA brought his usual form to RG, he would have won the title with ease. Federer didn't deserve that title game-wise. He was very lucky.
The second biggest upset, I believe, is RAFA's retirement from RG-2016. That was like a bolt from the blue. Nadal was in a very good form, but a wrist injury prevented him from having La Decima. Not sure if Djokovic would be able to deal with that version of RAFA. As we could see at Rome, RAFA had it on his racquet. Djokovic was as lucky as Federer to have the Career Slam. Actually, two legit CGS holders are RAFA and Agassi.
And the upset #3 is the RAFA-Rosol at Wimby-2012. Rosol was very lucky to play the 5th set at indoor and have a long break before. As far as I remember, he even took a shower between sets. RAFA just lost his momentum which he had in the 4th where he destroyed the Czech. RAFA always had a tought 1st week, but then improved his level dramatically. If the Centre court hadn't had the roof or if they had played at #1 court, Nadal would have won not only that match, but the whole tourney.
If Federer was lucky [after facing Haas, Del Potro and Soderling] then Nadal's win in AO 2010 was a big fluke as Nando deserved a win every aspect, Rafa's USO win was a fluke as Fed should have played him that year after holding 2 MPs.
Fanboyism to the core is not good on general forums.
Whoever wins deserves the title.
But for the biggest upset question I would rate Soderling -Rafa followed Rosol - Rafa Wimbledon, both matches Rafa lost coz the opponent played better on the given day and rightly deserved to win.
I am pretty sure several of those underdogs were actually a bigger price when the match started, especially Soderling - Nadal. Do you have access to closing prices as well?
You're right, Soderling closed at 36.0 for that match. Some of the others will be quite a bit different too (eg Dodig went from 36 to 12.25)
I used openers because I have a few more years of them, and closers have a few practical problems (they don't always get logged fully, sometimes they get cut off by a wrong start time, sometimes they go live etc etc)
When it happened, Chang vs. Lendl. Chang was a miniature 17 years old, Lendl was supposed to be unbeatable at Roland Garros. It's only with hindsight that we assess this match differently, as we know today that Chang had a good career of this own and Lendl's dominance was coming to an end.
In recent times, in terms of significance Soderling vs Nadal undoubtedly because Nadal was an absolute beast both on clay and at the FO - he was undefeated there in half a decade right from the very first time he played in that tournament in his teens. Second I would give to Rosol vs Nadal just because it was the first real major upset of the "big 4" at a grand slam in a couple of years, and really paved the way for the rest of the tour to feel more confident against these guys, after which the upsets became slightly more common.
Had Roger not been so clearly and notably injured, Stakovsky's win over him would probably have take 2nd place but as it stands in context I would rank it a little lower, though still top 5 or so.
The most unexpected result I've ever seen was Robredo straight-setting Federer at 2013 US Open (tragically preventing Nadal-Federer QF). Federer had won all 10 of their meetings.
For me, Federer's losses against both Robredo and Seppi were more surprsing than the one against Stakhovsky. He had dominated Seppi and Robredo very easily before (10:0 and 9:0), and they were both not really known for being able to surprise their opponents tactically. Against Stakhovsky, he had only played once before, and against such an aggressive opponent you can loose on grass on a bad day.
But I agree with the list above that the loss against Canas was the most surprising in his career (and one of the most surprising ever). At that time he was completely dominating the tour except for clay matches against Nadal, and then he lost to world number 60 on hard court without any previous warning signs.
For me personally it's also Söderling def. Nadal at RG 2009. I mean the guy once was on a 81 (!) matches winning streak on clay from 2006-2007. It was at this time the singlest hardest objective in tennis, to beat Nadal on clay in a BO5 format (or BO3 for that matter). Of course he had to lose some time, but who knows when that would be if it wasn't for Söderling.
I'm scrolling through the older posts but can't see the 2001 Wimbledon match where the then 19 year old Federer defeated Sampras the reigning champion who was considered the best grass court player.
lol at using odds to rank the biggest upsets. Canas def Federer is the biggest upset? haha not even close. I am sure Federer don't even remember those matches
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