Using Djokovic's previous results at the French Open (placing heavier emphasis on his results there since 2011, which is when he had that incredible season) I attempted to create a model that would predict the score of his matches at the 2016 French Open.
Here's how it did:
Round of 128: Prediction: 63 63 62 Actual: 64 61 61
Round of 64: Prediction: 63 63 61 Actual: 75 63 64
Round of 32: Prediction: 62 63 64 Actual: 62 63 63
The model correctly predicted the winner (not very impressive) and the number of sets in each match. In the first round, it was off by 2 in the game difference between Djokovic and Lu. In the second round against Darcis, it was off by 4 in the game difference. In the third round against Bedene, it was only off by 1, even correctly predicting the score of the first two sets.
Model's prediction for match against Bautista Agut: 63 76 67 62. (4 set win with a game difference of 7)
The two main factors are the opponent's rank and the round in which Djokovic plays the opponent. Using this it comes up with the predicted winner and number of sets. Using the predicted winner, number of sets, opponent's rank, and round it comes up with the game difference Djokovic will win/lose by. It then tries to come up with a score by allocating the game difference into the number of sets.
Full post: Predicting Djokovic's French Open Run
Here's how it did:
Round of 128: Prediction: 63 63 62 Actual: 64 61 61
Round of 64: Prediction: 63 63 61 Actual: 75 63 64
Round of 32: Prediction: 62 63 64 Actual: 62 63 63
The model correctly predicted the winner (not very impressive) and the number of sets in each match. In the first round, it was off by 2 in the game difference between Djokovic and Lu. In the second round against Darcis, it was off by 4 in the game difference. In the third round against Bedene, it was only off by 1, even correctly predicting the score of the first two sets.
Model's prediction for match against Bautista Agut: 63 76 67 62. (4 set win with a game difference of 7)
The two main factors are the opponent's rank and the round in which Djokovic plays the opponent. Using this it comes up with the predicted winner and number of sets. Using the predicted winner, number of sets, opponent's rank, and round it comes up with the game difference Djokovic will win/lose by. It then tries to come up with a score by allocating the game difference into the number of sets.
Full post: Predicting Djokovic's French Open Run