He has an excellent draw. does not have to face anyone of note until the final.
does not face wawrinka or nishikori who will be eliminated by murray. berdych looks his only real test up to final.
the bottom, murray's half, looks extremely competitive. raonic, wawrinka, nishikori, gasquet v murray. all will be tired from long matches if they get thru.
This is the most #NID slam from recent memory.
looks to be focussed this year. nadal and fed dropping out helps mentally. wawrinka, at the age of 31, out of form in 2016 and wawrinka will almost certainly go out to murray.
The bigger question, is it possible for prime Wawrinka to lose a final? Going for 11 in a row.
And has Murray gained the mental edge over Djokovic (by beating him in Rome)?
Will he drop a set? Well, if he does, I suspect he'll pick it back up again.
Actually, assuming he reaches the final, he might not drop any sets until then. But I really don't think he would win the final in straights. Then again, who knows.
As for Stan, Nishikori and Murray have just as good a shot at reaching the final IMO. And if Stan does happen to reach it, he'll have these 3 things going against him:
1) No element of surprise this year
2) The pressure of having to defend his title
3) The pressure of having to defend his final-winning streak
Anyway, even though Nadal is out, there are plenty of reasons to believe this tournament may still be interesting.
There'll be some things going for Stan:
1) He already won the French Open and is not playing with so much pressure. He can hit out knowing he hasn't much to lose. A final is a tremendous achievement for him already.
2) Djokovic is facing the pressure of NCYGS, Career slam and the elusive RG title that he may not have many more chances at.
3) Wawrinka is actually in good form and will still be seen as an underdog. I doubt there was ever any element of surprise as almost all of Djokovic and Stan's BO5 matches were very competitive and Djokovic knows what he's capable of when he goes deep in slams.
Wawrinka is the only one who can beat Djokovic. Murray will spread his ass cheeks for him if he makes the final, and Nishikori as much as I like his play, Djokovic will grind him down.
I learned after RG last year not to take anything for granted. I practically assumed it was over after Djokovic beat Nadal in the QF, which only made the defeat in the final that much worse.
The point is that anything can happen. Yes, Djokovic's chances look very good right now, but I thought the exact same thing last year too and he didn't win. As for OP's question. Even if Novak does win RG, he will likely lose a set at some point, yes.
Everybody in his half starting with Agut is capable of winning at least one set or two sets with rain delays, let alone the finalist who could again play tired Djokovic after his Saturday SF if there is rainy Friday afternoon and evening and they don't put the second SF on SL.
On topic: He won't lose a single set until the final. That much is almost certain. I really doubt RBA can take a set off of Djokovic by pure ballbashing. Berdych has more of a chance on clay as Djokovic's defense is more fragile on clay and the slow courts will hide Berdych's mobility disadvantage. If Thiem makes the SF, which he may very well do if he gets past GranoLLers and the likes of Gulbis/Goffin, I'm not sure if he can win a set, but it all depends on each of their respective levels if they meet. Either way I'm 95% sure Djokovic will reach the final as fresh as ever.
Lu
Darcis
Bedene
Bautista
Ferrer/Berdych (both old and in terrible form and bent over to every elite player even in their primes)
Goffin/Thiem/Gulbis
Exhausted finalist
This is one of the most fortunate draws I've ever seen. Especially since the guys on the bottom half have to beat up on one another.
I have to say that he deserves a break at RG after so much misfortune in the past. But, if he doesn't win it this year, he doesn't deserve it.
He couldn't have asked for a better draw or better weather.
I completely forgot about Almagro-Melzer QF/SF combo
Then there was Youzhny on another occasion. Say what you want, but Nole never had an opponent in GS SF so bad that he had to write "Sorri" to audience apologizing for his game.
I completely forgot about Almagro-Melzer QF/SF combo
Then there was Youzhny on another occasion. Say what you want, but Nole never had an opponent in GS SF so bad that he had to write "Sorri" to audience apologizing for his game.
Let's not get too ahead. Obviously Djokovic can lose sets earlier than in the final. Who knows how his potential SF i.e. against Thiem would look? Dominic for sure is able to make this match very interesting and competitive and losing a set to him would not be surprising. And in the final (if he reaches it) meeting Murray/Wawrinka won't be straightforward at all. So yes, Djokovic will lose set(s) but there's a much more important question - will he finally win this ancient tournament???
This would be the final nail in the coffin of dumb Federer and Nadal fans who cling onto this irrelevant stat just because their idols are in decline and in danger of being surpassed.
To any non-deluded tennis fan, this is an irrelevant stat. If anything, it proves a lack of challenge in those runs.
Historically, Novak has dropped sets either in the 3rd or 4th round (since 2011). Last year, interestingly enough, was the first year where he made it to the semis without dropping a set.
Also Djokovic has never won a clay court event Masters 1000 or Grand slam without dropping at least one set (Nadal has done it 7x, Federer 1x, and Murray 1x).
Fakervic relies on his superior fitness to grind down more talented players who tire out later in the match
Novak played finals in Madrid and Rome, before that he was in finals of AO, Miami and Indian Wells. That's 5 big tournaments.
Murray was in AO final, Madrid and Rome final. 3 tournaments.
Nishikori was in finals of Barcelona, Miami.
Wawrinka was in finals of Dubai.
Djokovic will be fresh as a daisy in finals of RG ? He will not.
Those who are bitching about his draw better buckle self up since they are getting embarrassing.
If anyone takes set from Nole until final or if he plays a match more than 3 hours, it will be big setback for him.
Novak played finals in Madrid and Rome, before that he was in finals of AO, Miami and Indian Wells. That's 5 big tournaments. Djokovic will be fresh as a daisy in finals of RG ? He will not.
Those who are bitching about his draw better buckle self up since they are getting embarrassing.
If anyone takes set from Nole until final or if he plays a match more than 3 hours, it will be big setback for him.
It's him who decided to play and reach the finals at IW and Miami, it's him who decided to tank MC and play 2 gruelling matches at Rome, a week before RG :wink2:
Roland Garros and Wimbledon are very tough areas to 3 set all the way. Thing is the organization in these two tournaments is very bad thanks to the annoying rain delays. This puts players off mentally and physically. With that said he has a shot here. Agut is great but he's not going to show up the way he did at the U.S. Open. He'll keep the point gaps closer but I think something like 6-4 6-4 6-3 for Djoker.
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