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Mostly likely absurd scenario?

  • Djokovic going undefeated in 2016

    Votes: 13 22.4%
  • Murray beating Djokovic at Wimbledon

    Votes: 9 15.5%
  • Federer winning Olympics Single Gold

    Votes: 6 10.3%
  • Nadal winning World Tour Finals

    Votes: 8 13.8%
  • Wawrinka winning US Open

    Votes: 11 19.0%
  • Raonic winning a grand slam

    Votes: 11 19.0%

Which is the most likely scenario that might occur in 2016?

2K views 29 replies 19 participants last post by  Cloren 
#1 · (Edited)
All of these are absurd and unlikely to happen, but which of the following could most likely happen?

Apologies for the awkward phrasing of the OP thread.
 
#3 ·
I dunno Y there s not the option of "Nishikori will win his 1st major." This is veri disrespectful and insulting towards Kei, isn't it? Anyway, if Raonic the Canadian Cannon is winning Wimbledon, I would say Kei the Japanese Torpedo will win the French Open.
 
#4 ·
I dunno Y there s not the option of "Nishikori will win his 1st major." This is veri disrespectful and insulting towards Kei, isn't it? Anyway, if Raonic the Canadian Cannon is winning Wimbledon, I would say Kei the Japanese Torpedo will win the French Open.
Sorry, not even MWW and Mark Lenders would agree sir.
 
#14 ·
What is wrong with you? Please leave me out of your stupid useless comments.

Thanks.
 
#8 · (Edited)
All of these are absurd and unlikely to happen, but which of the following could most likely happen?
The only absurd one (meaning no chance at all it will happen) is Djokovic going undefeated in 2016. It's just not happening. The season is long and he's bound to have at least some slight dips in form.

The most likely to happen is obviously Murray beating Djokovic at Wimbledon. The other options are about winning tournaments, but this is just about a single match where anything can happen. It's not like Murray has never beaten Djokovic before.

The other options are a bit more difficult to order but here's how I see it (going from more likely to less likely):

- Federer winning Olympics Single Gold
- Wawrinka winning US Open
- Raonic winning a grand slam
- Nadal winning World Tour Finals

Edit: I forgot about Federer's injury. Hard to rank him when we don't know how much it will affect his schedule and training process.
 
#11 ·
If by 'Djokovic going undefeated' you mean given he doesn't get a serious injury and actually plays, then from most likely to least:

Murray beating Djokovic at Wimbledon
Federer winning Olympics Single Gold
Wawrinka winning US Open
Nadal winning World Tour Finals
Raonic winning a grand slam
Djokovic going undefeated in 2016
 
#13 ·
Something like:

Djokovic going undefeated in 2016 - 2%
Murray beating Djokovic at Wimbledon - 18%
Federer winning Olympics Single Gold - 14%
Nadal winning World Tour Finals - 10%
Wawrinka winning US Open - 11%
Raonic winning a grand slam - 18%

1) is not gonna happen unless Djokovic gets injured off the court and is forced to skip the majority of the year. Not losing a single match in M1000 or a lower level tournament is unthinkable (let's say 1% chance at most). Winning CYGS would've been a better option an probably in the 15-20% range actually.
The thing with 2) is that it invloves the two facing off as well, which can only happen in the final unless Murray somehow misses on second seed by Wimbledon. So all in all, for me a toss up between 2) and 6)
 
#19 ·
Some of these aren't too absurd, really. Murray has struggled to take down Djokovic in big matches (as has everyone) recently but he can beat him and Wimbledon would be a good venue to do so. Federer could win a big tournament, especially one where Djokovic will be under pressure to win something he hasn't won. Wawrinka has been to SF of USO twice in recent years and has won big tournaments before, and it is not Djokocic's strongest slam I'm terms of winning finals so anything is possible. If Nadal avoids Djokovic in SF or F at WTF then he could have a chance there. Raonic winning a grand slam is the one based on unknown potential, but Cilic did it not too long ago... Basically if Djokovic slips up badly at a slam it could easily go to various different candidates.

Djokovic going undefeated in 2016 is highly unlikely though. He won't be able to sustain the intensity required to win every tournament throughout the year. I suspect he will do a little worse at masters this year, but will be trying to do everything he can to go one match better at slam level than in 2015, as well as adding that gold medal. Going undefeated would only be possible if he played an extremely light schedule, or even pulled out of the season with injury after a few tournaments.
 
#22 ·
Why absurd, they all seem pretty plausible to me. Djokovic not losing in 2016 seems a bit far fetched though.
 
#23 ·
I think these predictions are merely based on the media hype, so they are not the same probability I must say. Simply because popular players get attention doesn't mean good things will happen to them. Only people who know the sport inside out can tell the whole story.
 
#24 ·
Right... and you think the media in Japan doesn't have unrealistic expectations of Nishikori? ;)

As for the poll, I dunno, Murray beating Djokovic in Wimby maybe. All unlikely
 
#25 ·
Murray beating Djokovic at Wimbledon isn't actually an absurd scenario. Andy is still a favorite against Djokovic on grass. Just remember how hopeless Djokovic looked trying to cope with Andy's slice which produced low-bouning balls.
 
#27 ·
Most likely

1.Wawrinka winning USO- This wouldn't shock me too much, he's been to SF a couple of times and will likely be 2nd or 3rd favourite again this year

2.Murray beating Djokovic at Wimbledon- Again this wouldn't be a shock, Murray leads Djokovic 2-0 on grass and will likely be the top 2 seeds again this year

3.Federer winning Olympic gold- Unlikely but wouldn't rule this out,

4.Nadal winning WTF- Very unlikely, Novak is just too dominant there

5.Djokovic being undefeated in 2016- Won't happen, he won't lose many matches this year probably 5-6 max but he'll lose matches at some point.

6.Raonic winning a slam in 2016- Again won't happen, I think his time will come but not this year.
 
#28 ·
LOL at Raonic even being in this poll , and especially not having a huge lead !

Scary option on Djokovic going undefeated , let's pray not! (He's great, but that's not very interesting /dramatic)

Murray defeating Djokovic at Wimbledon doesn't really belong,since it's by far his best chance to do so.

Of course Wawrinka could win USO!

I would say 2 way tie for most absurd Raonic slam/Nadal wtf
 
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