Who will win RG? The view from the markets - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 29 (permalink) Old 04-24-2006, 05:01 PM Thread Starter
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Who will win RG? The view from the markets

It is a good time to start a thread about the chances of the RG contenders as seen from the point of view of the betting markets. I am interested in the information that the betting odds present here, in the sense that they reveal what bettors think about the winner of RG. Right after Monte Carlo, the odds are as following: (Source: http://www.betfair.com/?rfr=63&mi=4652716)

Odds Probabilities
Nadal 2.28 0.439
Federer 3.4 0.294
Gaudio 26 0.038
Coria 30 0.033
Gasquet 34 0.029
Nalbandian 40 0.025
Safin 55 0.018
Ferrer 60 0.017
Ferrero 75 0.013

The probabilities are implied from the odds in the winner-take-all market, so they represent current probabilities of players winning RG outright.

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post #2 of 29 (permalink) Old 04-24-2006, 05:06 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Who will win RG? The view from the markets

Just a few comments: I follow these odds since after the A.O., for some time Roger and Rafa had similar odds of 3:1, then after Dubai Rafa emerged as a slight favourite with 2.7:1 relative to 3.2:1 for Roger. Just before Monte Carlo, Roger was slightly behind, with 2.9:1 versus 2.8:1 for Rafa. After Monte Carlo, the line moved significantly and now Rafa appears as the favourite.

For the other contenders, i think it is remarkable that Richard commands such high odds given that he has not played a single match on clay.

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post #3 of 29 (permalink) Old 04-24-2006, 05:07 PM
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Re: Who will win RG? The view from the markets

Beating Federer once on clay will do that Merton.

On Nadal bumping him on the changeover, Rosol said: "It's ok, he wanted to take my concentration; I knew he would try something".


Wilander on Dimitrov - "He has mind set on imitating Federer and yes it looks good. But he has no idea what to do on the court".

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I definitely would have preferred Gaba winning as he needs the points much more, but Jan would have beaten him anyway. I expect Hajek to destroy Machado, like 6-1 6-2.
Machado wins 6-2 6-1
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post #4 of 29 (permalink) Old 04-24-2006, 05:07 PM
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Re: Who will win RG? The view from the markets

Pretty obvious figures.

BEMELMANS | CHARDY | CHIUDINELLI
CIPOLLA| ROGER-VASSELIN | MCGEE




Bachinger|Basilashvili|Brands|Broady|Clezar|Cuevas |Eysseric|Giannessi|Gombos
Granollers|Grigelis|Huta Galung|Ilhan|Kudla|Al. Kuznetsov|Mannarino
Menendez|Mitchell|Naso|Paire|Peliwo|Polansky|Rober t|Rubin|Smyczek|J. Sousa|Weintraub

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post #5 of 29 (permalink) Old 04-24-2006, 05:11 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Who will win RG? The view from the markets

Odds for dark horses: Chucho at 95:1, Almagro at 100:1.

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post #6 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 04:31 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Who will win RG? The view from the markets

This is a good time to update this thread, right after Rome. I will report the highest implied probabilities, all odds come from here: http://www.betfair.com/?rfr=63&mi=4652716

Nadal: 0.495
Federer: 0.323
Nalbandian: 0.033
Almagro: 0.017
Gasquet: 0.012

Both favourites have improved their odds, the biggest change has been the substantial drop in Coria's price, trading now at odds 140:1 and the increase in Almagro's price, trading now at 60:1. Safin has also fallen to 150:1

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post #7 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 04:34 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Who will win RG? The view from the markets

It appears quite curious to me that Richard has such a high price, having played zero games on clay. By the way, Chucho trades at 140:1.

Salvor Hardin: "Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent"

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post #8 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 04:41 PM
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Re: Who will win RG? The view from the markets

I don't get why Coria is still there on top with the real challengers.

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post #9 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 04:45 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Who will win RG? The view from the markets

Quote:
Originally Posted by TGS
I don't get why Coria is still there on top with the real challengers.
He is not on top, it is only because there were people who bet on him back when there was still hope he would recover from his problems. Technically, there is still hope, but he is given less than a 1% probability to win. By the way, i recall that he came to RG as 2nd favourite last year.

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post #10 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 04:51 PM
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Re: Who will win RG? The view from the markets

Quote:
Originally Posted by Merton
By the way, i recall that he came to RG as 2nd favourite last year.
Not possible.

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post #11 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 04:53 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Who will win RG? The view from the markets

Quote:
Originally Posted by Peoples
Not possible.
Just a recollection, and i am too lazy to check right now.

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post #12 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 04:55 PM
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Re: Who will win RG? The view from the markets

Nah he was just behind Roger and Nadal I believe
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post #13 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 05:00 PM
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Re: Who will win RG? The view from the markets

Quote:
Originally Posted by Merton
It is a good time to start a thread about the chances of the RG contenders as seen from the point of view of the betting markets. I am interested in the information that the betting odds present here, in the sense that they reveal what bettors think about the winner of RG. Right after Monte Carlo, the odds are as following: (Source: http://www.betfair.com/?rfr=63&mi=4652716)

Odds Probabilities
Nadal 2.28 0.439
Federer 3.4 0.294
Gaudio 26 0.038
Coria 30 0.033
Gasquet 34 0.029
Nalbandian 40 0.025
Safin 55 0.018
Ferrer 60 0.017
Ferrero 75 0.013

The probabilities are implied from the odds in the winner-take-all market, so they represent current probabilities of players winning RG outright.
Oh man
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post #14 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 06:10 PM
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Re: Who will win RG? The view from the markets

Nalbo is a definite buy at 30:1.

what's Lubicic's price?
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post #15 of 29 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 06:15 PM
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Re: Who will win RG? The view from the markets

Quote:
Originally Posted by Merton
This is a good time to update this thread, right after Rome. I will report the highest implied probabilities, all odds come from here: http://www.betfair.com/?rfr=63&mi=4652716

Nadal: 0.495
Federer: 0.323
Nalbandian: 0.033
Almagro: 0.017
Gasquet: 0.012

Both favourites have improved their odds, the biggest change has been the substantial drop in Coria's price, trading now at odds 140:1 and the increase in Almagro's price, trading now at 60:1. Safin has also fallen to 150:1
I'm surprised that Nadal is still less than 50%. Nalbandian and Almagro are no surprise. Gaquet is high because it's his home tournament but surely there's no hope now.
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