If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year.... - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 06:39 PM Thread Starter
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If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

As it stands right now, Nadal is 1460 entry points behind Federer. Let's say that Federer doesn't play again the rest ot this year. His #1 ranking is safe for the year but in real jeopardy at the beginning of next year.

If Nadal can make the SF in Paris and then win the TMC with say 1 loss, then he gains:

Paris: 45 race points/225 points
TMC: 125 race points/625 points

This would put Nadal at 1123 race points, 122 behind Federer. In entry ranking points, he would only be 610 points behind going into Doha next year.

If Federer doesn't win Doha next year or doesn't play it, his lead going into the Australian Open would be quite slim.

At the Australian Open, Federer would have 450 points to defend and Nadal would have 75 points to defend. If Federer only gets to the SF while Nadal wins it, Nadal could stand to gain 925 points, thereby taking over #1.

That's a lot of ifs but if Federer doesn't play again this year and Nadal finishes strongly, Fed's #1 is in real jeoapardy early next year. Fed has Doha, AO SF, Dubai, Rotterdam, IW, and Miami to defend before the clay season. That's 2250 points to defend.

It should be interesting. I do believe that Federer will play the TMC.
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post #2 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 06:42 PM
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Re: If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

I wonder if Federer will play the Masters Cup while being hamprered by injury, he might be vulnerable. If he has torn ligaments in his leg then his movement would be severely hurt and pretty much any player in the field should be able to take advantage.

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post #3 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 06:45 PM
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Re: If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

Isn't Nadal planning to stop playing until the TMC now? I have doubts that he will play Paris, I really do. He must be exhausted.

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post #4 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 06:51 PM
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Re: If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

Rafa said he spoke to Roger, and he really hopes Roger plays in the TMC because it would be bad for tennis if he didn't. He said they are rivals but they have a great relationship off court. Sweet
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post #5 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 06:57 PM
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Re: If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

i doubt rafa will play in paris....
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post #6 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 07:01 PM
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Re: If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

Quote:
Originally Posted by adee-gee
Rafa said he spoke to Roger, and he really hopes Roger plays in the TMC because it would be bad for tennis if he didn't. He said they are rivals but they have a great relationship off court. Sweet
Really, I knew they have loads of respect for each other and like each other but Andy better watch out if he doesnt make a move soon Rafa will bounce on Rogi

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post #7 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 07:05 PM
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Re: If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

Quote:
Originally Posted by oneandonlyhsn
Really, I knew they have loads of respect for each other and like each other but Andy better watch out if he doesnt make a move soon Rafa will bounce on Rogi
Rafa's only got eyes for F-Lo
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post #8 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 07:08 PM
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Re: If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

Federer should return only if (when) he's fully fit. He should see a big picture. Noone can stay No1 forever. Winnig GS is what prime years of a career for. He'll need his health for that.

Last edited by ExpectedWinner; 10-23-2005 at 07:16 PM.
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post #9 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 07:41 PM Thread Starter
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Re: If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

^This is really true. This is what Sampras decided and his results turned out pretty well. Sampras however didn't have someone like Nadal at his heels who had the ability to dominate the clay season and do well on hardcourts thereby amassing very large point totals.
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post #10 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 08:08 PM
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Re: If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

pfff i don't know, once the gravel season is there it will be Nadal who's defending a lot of points... we'll see

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post #11 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 08:12 PM Thread Starter
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Re: If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

^If Federer is still #1 going into the clay season then he will in all liklihood stay there for the rest of the year.
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post #12 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 08:36 PM
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Re: If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

Quote:
Originally Posted by ExpectedWinner
Federer should return only if (when) he's fully fit. He should see a big picture. Noone can stay No1 forever. Winnig GS is what prime years of a career for. He'll need his health for that.
I think that goes w/o
saying.

Roger has shown time and time
again to be very wise about his body
and game and IMO will do exactly what
he needs to do whatever that may be.

IMO, he won't be losing his #1 spot,
he just won't.
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post #13 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 08:38 PM Thread Starter
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Re: If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

Quote:
IMO, he won't be losing his #1 spot,
he just won't.
I don't think he will either but for the first time in a long time, there is actually a possibility of him losing it at next year's AO.
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post #14 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 09:07 PM Thread Starter
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Re: If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

Does anyone know if both Federer and Nadal are signed up for Doha next year? I'm sure that the appearence fees will be quite tasty.
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post #15 of 120 (permalink) Old 10-23-2005, 09:12 PM
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Re: If Federer doesn't play again this year, Nadal could take over #1 early next year....

nadal will take the no.1 spot from federer, its just a matter of when, could be as early as early next year, towards the end of year, or the year after

afterall, federer couldnt be world no.1 FOREVER....

its incredible how well they both have done this year... 8 TMS between 2 players...

and with nadal's results this year

HE IS THE BEST 2ND RANKED TENNIS PLAYER EVER!!!!
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