Originally Posted by 1sun
it will probably happen least unexpected against a player ranked outside the top 10
That's what I think, too. Someone that Roger has never played before or someone he hasn't played for a very long time who has improved his game a lot.
Nadal would be my second choice. If it's a clay court final.
Some people seem to think it's a bad mark to lose to a low-ranked player or the most unlikely person in the world, but when you look at Roger's record against the top 10, it's not so difficult to understand.
Roger learns to read them like a book so he knows exactly what to expect from them, but when you're playing someone you're not used to, you have to make adjustments. Look at his match against Baghdatis at last year's USO. He was on his heels alot of the time but he made the necessary adjustments to counteract him. SOmetimes he's not so lucky.
IMO this is part of the reason why he lost to Nadal in 2K4 Miami. He wasn't used to Nadal's game and he was ill. He still seems nervous around Nadal which is why I give Nadal the next best chance of beating him ina Final, but otherwise I think Roger will turn things around Nadal in the near future. That's also why I said on a clay court because I always favour Nadal on clay.
I don't think Roger is mentally ready to beat Nadal on clay, it's a combination of two strong forces that Roger has not yet learned how to overcome. But I hope I'm wrong and he wins the FO Final against Nadal. That would be awesome.