Originally Posted by Merton
Let me rephrase the argument so as to make it impersonal:
You suspect that a coin is not fair, (that is, it is not equally likely to show heads and tails when flipped) and, in particular, you suspect that it always turns heads. You toss the coin once and it turns heads. You conclude that the coin is not fair.
Would you ever agree with this conclusion?
what coin? and who tossed this coin? where is the evidence that a coin was ever tossed and this draw reflects this supposed coin? was there even ever a coin involved? if so, where is this coin now? The conclusion is, there is no coin involved at all, we've all been told that there was one, but have no irrefutable, concrete proof of it.