I would bet my life savings that... - MensTennisForums.com

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post #1 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 01:20 AM Thread Starter
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I would bet my life savings that...

one of these 5: federer, hewitt, nadal, roddick, safin wins the US Open

add your own....should be about the US Open, but can be about other stuff as well, otherwise comment on what i wrote above
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post #2 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 01:22 AM
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Re: I would bet my life savings that...

That is a given seeing that the US Open usually has a top seeded winner. I don't see Roger losing....
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post #3 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 01:26 AM
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Re: I would bet my life savings that...

If Roger or Nadal dont win it, Andre is the safest choice.
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post #4 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 01:26 AM
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Re: I would bet my life savings that...

Quote:
Originally Posted by FaceyFacem
one of these 5: federer, hewitt, nadal, roddick, safin wins the US Open

add your own....should be about the US Open, but can be about other stuff as well, otherwise comment on what i wrote above
your life savings would net you 1/10th of your life savings if you made this bet, because their odds are so good that the returns are tiny

But .... got your point
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post #5 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 01:30 AM
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Re: I would bet my life savings that...

That's not a very risky bet
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post #6 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 01:31 AM
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Re: I would bet my life savings that...

Chucho v Volandri on the final Sunday, take it to the bank.

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ROGER FEDERER: Yeah, I remember this one time when I went on a vacation on the Maldives. That was in the year 2001, I think. I went to this spa. I went to walk around with my girlfriend. I walk in, and we want to book a spa. This guy goes, "AHH, I remember you. You beat Sampras. I saw you on TV." That was like, really, how can you remember me? This guy has probably never been off his island and still knows me. I was a little bit shocked. Then I went to play tennis with him because he was actually the tennis teacher. It was nice.

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post #7 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 01:32 AM Thread Starter
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Re: I would bet my life savings that...

Quote:
Originally Posted by NYCtennisfan
That's not a very risky bet
well there would be a lot riding on it! i'm only a college student, every last cent counts for me
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post #8 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 01:39 AM
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Re: I would bet my life savings that...

That Roger does not lose first round.

My money is important.

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post #9 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 02:04 AM
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Re: I would bet my life savings that...

i wouldn't bet my life savings on anything...

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post #10 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 02:43 AM
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Re: I would bet my life savings that...

Carlos Moya's gonna win.

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post #11 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 02:47 AM
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Re: I would bet my life savings that...

... that hewitt will lose to an eventual winner once again... poor guy...
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post #12 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 03:03 AM
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Re: I would bet my life savings that...

Vince Spadea is going to win the US Open. WOOT.
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post #13 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 03:27 AM
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Re: I would bet my life savings that...

i don't have life savings but if i did i would bet it on MARAT winning the US Open then I'd die of hunger.

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post #14 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 04:57 AM
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Re: I would bet my life savings that...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sjengster
Chucho v Volandri on the final Sunday, take it to the bank.
Chucho will defeat Puerta 7-6 in the 5th set of a dramatic semifinal, the rematch of his unceremonious loss at the French Open.
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post #15 of 21 (permalink) Old 08-23-2005, 05:10 AM
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Re: I would bet my life savings that...

Just my $0.02: The market maker must at least break even to stay in business. That means that if you bet when you agree with the odds provided, you are taking a gamble of negative expected wealth. In the current context, you can see that the probability that one of the above players wins (as inferred by the odds given by the market maker) adds up to something like 92%. Even if you believe (as you state) that the real probability is 100%, the spread merely compensates for the market maker profit margin.

Playing a game of negative expected wealth means that you are guaranteed to go bankrupt eventually.
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