It is one week before the U.S. Open starts, so i thought it would be interesting to see who may emerge as the winner of the U.S. Open. A natural place to start is looking at the winner-take-all markets. I took the odds given below from betfair.com. I also converted the odds to probabilities.
Federer 3/4 57.1%
Nadal 22/5 18.5%
Roddick 23/2 8.0%
Hewitt 21/1 4.5%
Safin 22/1 4.3%
Agassi 47/1 2.1%
Federer appears as a huge favourite. To get an idea about how high is a probability of 57% winning the U.S. Open, consider that he needs to go through 7 best of 5 set matches in a period of two weeks. For example, suppose that he has a probability of 95% winning each of his first 5 matches and a probability of 80% winning the semis and finals. Then, the probability of winning outright is (0.95)^5*(0.80)^2=49.5%.
Nadal is given significantly higher chances to emerge as the outright winner relative to Roddick and Hewitt.