It is apparent that the age of top tennis players is highest since the era of Laver, Rosewall and Nastase....
The average age of top 20 pretty much follows the average age of top 10...
While in the era of Connors/Borg/JMac/Lendl it was common that top 10 players were younger than the rest of the top 20 (between 1975-1992 there were only 2 years with older top 10 than top 20), during recent years the trend is different. Top 10 players are often older than players ranked 10-20, or at least comparable. It is likely caused by Sampras, Agassi, but also Todd Martin, Richard Krajicek or Tim Henman staying in top 10 even in the age of 28+. Recent higher average age is caused by higher age of Federer, Ferrer, Lopez, Robredo, Haas, Youzhny, etc., but it is also necessary to realize that Nadal, Djokovic and Murray are around 30 and can be considered as quite old.
The composition of the Top 10 has NOT changed much in the last few years. Very few new entrants. So, it is no wonder that the average age is ticking up. The usual suspects : Roger, Rafa, Novak, Andy, Berdych have been part of Top 10 for at least 6 years now and this distorts the picture..
** Is there a way, you can find out the average age of NEW entrants to Top 10 during any given year. That will probably show us how fast younger players matured to enter the Top 10.
Game is just different and the whole tennis circuit(players,coaches,academies etc.) needs time to adjust... but you can continue with the weak/strong era nonsense - it has gotten quite amusing.
There really aren't upcoming youngsters who seem to even trouble the top...see how constantly the Top 10 contains the Big Four + Berdych + Ferrer -- the other four usually consists of Tsonga during the past years, Del Potro when playing healthy and 2 Wildcards that usually shuffles every 3 months or so from what I remember. This year though there has been some shifts (Wawrinka winning the AO and MC really has put him quite a "party spoiler" for the usual order, Del Potro is out and Tsonga is struggling) and we now see the #9-#10 spots occupied by shifting of Tsonga/Gasquet/Raonic/Nishikori/Isner and now Gulbis. With #8 Del Potro withdrawing and #7 Ferrer possible in elimination earlier (both at least QFers last year) there might be another shakeup.
After 28-29 you start losing a step. In this physical era where grinding is predominant then it should be harder than ever to keep up for the older guys. Doesn't seem to be the case though.
The high average age simply coincides with a period of time where we've had about 5-8 players within the top 10 constantly.
Also court homogenization is a factor, younger players need to do well on all surfaces to ensure top 10 placing - while in the past the top ten players would not do well on all surfaces. In the past a young player might do well on a couple of tournaments and get into the top ten because the top ten players weren't as consistant on all surfaces and didn't collect as much points as they do now. This would lead to easier draws and allow them to stay in the top 10 for a longer period of time.
The only player who really has been consistent since breaking out is Raonic but he simply hasn't shown the ability to get further ahead in the rankings and win big tournaments yet.
Third factor is Fed and Ferrer, despite their age they are still going strong and consistent. There have been rarely players in that age bracket that continue to compete through out the year.
The development is hardly surprising and I would say homogenization; physical preparation and a strong field that are slowly ageing is the main reason for this effect.
Interesting. On the women's tour their have been quite a few women recently who have made their slam breakthroughs pretty late on. Li Na, schiavone etc. Maybe the youngsters aren't good enough on either tour, maybe they aren't fit enough or maybe the top players who have been going strong for a while are just too good. Could be a combination. Daveed and Stan are two players who did better later on in their careers.
Raonic and Nishikori can't even be considered "upcoming" anymore. They are 23 and 24. What were Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray doing at that age? Winning.
While I agree that the young talent is not stellar, they are clearly unlucky as there are currently 3 (or 4) all-time greats playing at the same time who clean up all the top tournaments. Other players who perform exceptionally on their preferred surfaces - Ferru on clay, Isner on American hard courts, Delpo on hardcourts make life difficult in the mid-tier tournaments. It's definitely not easy. Either way, Fed and Ferru are the outliers that are pushing up the average here. In a couple of seasons, the Big 4 will decline, Berdych will follow Tsonga out of top 10, and Fed, Ferru might retire. The average will drop down to 26 or so again. I don't think Thiem, Coric and co. are just going to sit around twiddling their thumbs waiting for Grigor, Raonic and co. to lead the way.
What happened is an exceptionnal 1985-1987 generation that made an impact early and is still nowhere near retirement. And the 1989-1991 generation is slightly weaker than usual so that doesn't help.
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