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post #1 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 05:23 AM Thread Starter
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Form and dominance of the Big4

Percentage of points won over the last 20 matches


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post #2 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 08:04 AM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

How did you manage to get Nadal's curve to dip so markedly at the end of 2012, when he wasn't playing?

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post #3 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 12:28 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

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Originally Posted by Litotes View Post
How did you manage to get Nadal's curve to dip so markedly at the end of 2012, when he wasn't playing?
A straight line connects his late-2012 and early-2013 percentages.

I could have left that period blank, but just wanted a continuous line.
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post #4 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 12:35 PM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

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Originally Posted by tennis_analyst View Post
A straight line connects his late-2012 and early-2013 percentages.

I could have left that period blank, but just wanted a continuous line.
Then my screen must have issues. The line doesn't look straight to me, and I'm pretty sure it's not my eyes' fault. It looks slightly bulge-shaped.

I understand your decision, though. Continuous lines are neater.

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post #5 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 12:36 PM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

So Rafa had the best percentage points won in Djoker's fluke year. This just shows what a headcase he was that year, losing finals everywhere

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post #6 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 12:41 PM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

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So Rafa had the best percentage points won in Djoker's fluke year. This just shows what a headcase he was that year, losing finals everywhere
What do you mean here? Djokovic was the only one to reach 57,5% during 2011. Federer, Murray and Nadal all reached approx. 56%.

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post #7 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 12:57 PM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

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What do you mean here? Djokovic was the only one to reach 57,5% during 2011. Federer, Murray and Nadal all reached approx. 56%.
Yes. You are right. I compared the wrong columns
But still, he was a headcase that year

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post #8 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 01:09 PM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

I find it interesting to see that Federer didn't really drop off much this year on this stat. What drops he does have, with the most significant one in 2007, tend to be early in the season.

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post #9 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 03:01 PM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

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Originally Posted by Litotes View Post
How did you manage to get Nadal's curve to dip so markedly at the end of 2012, when he wasn't playing?
Do you mean the end of 2013? The markers on the x-axis are a little confusing. Dec-2012 essentially means the beginning of 2013 and therefore the graph ends at the end of the 2013 season.

Nevertheless, I don't understand why Nadal's line goes down in the second half of 2012. When he played Rosol, his last 20 matches would have been over the clay season of 2012. When he started playing again in Chile, 19 of these matches would have still counted towards his percentage. So the drop would be very minimal. Unless the data is done tournament to tournament (rather than match to match). But even then, I wouldn't have thought it would drop off that much after his showing in Chile.
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post #10 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 03:35 PM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

Your graphs are begging for more information. The time frame is 10 years but you identify the graphs as "Percentage of points won over the last 20 matches". I don't understand. Over the last ten years all four players played a lot more than twenty matches. I would think that each match played would be represented by a graph point so how are contiguous lines derived?

Please explain your methodology.

EDIT: I assume that each point represents a moving average of the last twenty matches at that time. Maybe I understand.

Last edited by Whiznot; 12-23-2013 at 03:39 PM.
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post #11 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 04:15 PM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

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Originally Posted by Litotes View Post
What do you mean here? Djokovic was the only one to reach 57,5% during 2011. Federer, Murray and Nadal all reached approx. 56%.
Ugh please don't quote trolls, I usually have the luxury of not seeing their posts. Straight out lying and misquoting facts as usual I see

Fluke year? Yep, you win 5 masters, 3 slams and have an amazing match winning streak by fluke! Dulltards forever pressed that peak Nole destroyed peak Nadal with complete ease. 7 in a row, ouch Meanwhile in Nadal's fluke 2010 he couldn't get close to Nole's 2011 despite an injured Fed, Nole's worst year and Murray 1.0. No wonder they are upset When they reach the age of 12 they will admit peak Nole is superior and that Nole 2011 was their favourite ever year, and they despised a good player like him choking to one dimensional Dull this year. Even then it was 3-3 with two Nadal wins being hilariously close

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post #12 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 04:52 PM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

Federer is the more constant. His problem from 2007 until last year always has been 2 maybe 3 players, who make the difference between his golden years and the rest of his allegedly early non peak years.

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post #13 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 04:57 PM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

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Federer is the more constant. His problem from 200 until last year always has been 2 maybe 3 players, who make the difference between his golden years and the rest of his allegedly early non peak years.
Well, not if you look at % of matches won. Remove the 3 players and you still find his 2006 (which would be 100%, btw) stats are quite a lot better than 2007 --->

So are % of points won more telling than % of matches won?

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post #14 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 05:03 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

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Originally Posted by StatRacket View Post
Nevertheless, I don't understand why Nadal's line goes down in the second half of 2012. When he played Rosol, his last 20 matches would have been over the clay season of 2012. When he started playing again in Chile, 19 of these matches would have still counted towards his percentage. So the drop would be very minimal. Unless the data is done tournament to tournament (rather than match to match). But even then, I wouldn't have thought it would drop off that much after his showing in Chile.
After loss to Rosol, Rafa's last-20 match percentage dropped from 58.3% to approximately 57%

In 4 out of his first 5 matches on clay in 2013, Rafa won less than 57% of points. So, the line continued to go down. It reached its lowest after Rafa lost to Zeballos (he won 49% of points in that match), then started to climb until the end of the clay season.
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post #15 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 05:10 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

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Originally Posted by Whiznot View Post
Your graphs are begging for more information. The time frame is 10 years but you identify the graphs as "Percentage of points won over the last 20 matches". I don't understand. Over the last ten years all four players played a lot more than twenty matches. I would think that each match played would be represented by a graph point so how are contiguous lines derived?

Please explain your methodology.

EDIT: I assume that each point represents a moving average of the last twenty matches at that time. Maybe I understand.
Yes, it is moving but not exactly average. At each date, I look at the last 20 matches played and compute this ratio:

(sum of points won in these 20 matches) / (sum of all points played in these 20 matches)

So, if the match was short (especially, a retirement), it will not affect this ratio much, since the number of points played in that match was low.
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