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post #16 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 06:13 PM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

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Originally Posted by tennis_analyst View Post
Yes, it is moving but not exactly average. At each date, I look at the last 20 matches played and compute this ratio:

(sum of points won in these 20 matches) / (sum of all points played in these 20 matches)

So, if the match was short (especially, a retirement), it will not affect this ratio much, since the number of points played in that match was low.
It could, if it makes a significant match drop off in the other end.

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post #17 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 10:32 PM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

The point distribution in tennis can be described by an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model.
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post #18 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-23-2013, 10:43 PM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

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Well, not if you look at % of matches won. Remove the 3 players and you still find his 2006 (which would be 100%, btw) stats are quite a lot better than 2007 --->

So are % of points won more telling than % of matches won?
I am comparing the average of his best period (2004-2007) with the 2008-2012 period. Not very different IMO.

Obviously if you choose just the best streak of a player and you compare with longer periods things are going to work in your direction.

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post #19 of 19 (permalink) Old 12-24-2013, 07:00 AM
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Re: Form and dominance of the Big4

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I am comparing the average of his best period (2004-2007) with the 2008-2012 period. Not very different IMO.

Obviously if you choose just the best streak of a player and you compare with longer periods things are going to work in your direction.
In 2004-07 he won 95,9% of matches against anyone not named Nadal, Djokovic and Murray.

In 2008-12 he won 91,1%.

That is a significant difference to me.

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