Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Lisbon, Portugal
Re: How many more slams will Federer win?
Original thread topic.
He's in the mix of course and will always be. The main effect of his age though is that his recovery powers have greatly diminished, grueling matches affect him far more in the next round than his younger rivals. To maximize his chances, he needs to get to the semis fresh; this means avoiding Tsonga/Berdych/Delpo in the quarters either by drawing Ferrer/Tipsy or by having them lose early (which is entirely possible). It's not that he can't beat those 3, but he'll almost surely have a battle on his hands and then come out flat in the next match like this year at AO (flat performance vs Murray after long match with Tsonga).
If he can get himself to the semis as fresh as possible, he's always got a chance. He'll still want to avoid Nadal (although we still don't know in what form Nadal will be in upon his return), but he can beat anyone else. The problem is AO and USO are played on super slow hardcourts and are extremely physical Slams, as is Roland Garros. Wimbledon (especially if the roof closes) seems like his best chance and it is if he gets to the semis, but it's also where he's more likely to get blown off the court before semis. I will never discount Federer, but it's going to be tough; this is the most physical era of tennis ever and Federer is way past his physical prime; he's still way superior to most of the field though, which he will need to rely on to get to the semis without as little as fuss as possible so he can stand a better fighting chance against the moving walls in the top 4 who will get everything back and really test him physically.
No outcome would surprise me here, it's just very unpredictable how Federer's career will unfold from now on. No more Slams, one more or a few more are all possibilities. Of course he needs to schedule his year smartly, but he always does that so it goes without saying.
MTF games titles:
Suicide Tennis (5): Wimbledon 2014, World Tour Finals 2015, Madrid 2015, Kuala Lumpur 2014 and Metz 2015 - 1 Slam, 1 WTF, 1 Masters 1000, 2 ATP 250; 2 finals lost
Fill-in-the-Draw (5): US Open 2014, Rotterdam 2013, Geneva 2015, Sydney 2016 and Buenos Aires 2016 - 1 Slam, 1 ATP 500 and 3 ATP 250
Tennis Tipping (3): Veneza and Todi 2014 (with vn01), Knoxville 2015 (with Redkop) - 3 challengers; 7 finals lost