I agree with you, but Novak proved he can beat Fed at RG. It was 3-0 but the match was closer than the scoreline suggests. Fed will always be favorite vs Novak on clay and grass, because his A game > Novak's A game. Djokovic always plays around the same level, very consistent high level. So, it's just a question if Goaterer will show up or not.
Last year Fed knew very well he has not chance against Rafa on clay so why need to make the same mistake as year before in 2011.Lost a lot of energy at FO and had nothing left for Wimbledon.
That is why IMO he did not push himself after Madrid, got enough points at Rome,at RG and Wimbledon was something else. At this stage of his career he knows where he has a chance at GS level.He will be crazy if he push to win on clay