His real test will be in SF against Mandy. If he survives, I give him 50% against Nole and 100% vs anybody else.
Something like this, however, I think odds are more like 30-40% for Federer if he faces Novak in the final. He choked that match against Novak in London and his backhand held up really well. In his first match against Paire, his backhand was really solid, which is a good sign for him, but then again, when Federer faced Novak at Roland Garros last year, Novak broke Roger's forehand down, his backhand actually was pretty solid and never truly let him down.