I would previously consider Federer a greater threat at hard court slams than Murray, even at the AO. If Andy is in Rogers half, its in Rogers favour in grand slam play.
But all things considered, I would give Andy the edge now he's broken through and won a slam. Novak favourite for sure.
Honestly, when i wrote my list and put Roger ahead of Murray it felt wrong, but i kinda wanted to keep it.
On a second thought Murray has more chances on slowish hard courts than Federer. Fed would be equal to him at Wimby and ahead at USO and RG, but AO is probably the only GS where there are real reasons to give a slim edge to Muzza.
About Tsonga, Ferrer and Berdych, Tipsa included - they might not even cross the 4th round barrier, it's the AO at the end of the day and it's not meant to have the top 8 in QFs.
We have players like Isner, Raonic, Kei, Almagro, Gasquet, even Bellucci, Verdasco, etc., who can win on their day anyone, but the top 4 in a Slam, so it will be a matter of day for the second range contenders in practically every match after the second round.
I wouldn't put a dime on the above top 4 guys (except Pony) below 100 odds, so Ferrer at 40 might seem like a deal, or Tsonga at 70, but these are just lost gambles.
I would personally put a few dimes on Pony at 17.50, which i believe is a very good price and a dime on Isner at odds over 150, which is a gamble, but i feel the guy will be in the last 8 (maybe even 4), so it would be a good one to trade later.