Sounds reasonable. Although I think Fed will end up 4 or 5 this year given he is going to play less tournaments
It's perfectly reasonable predicting Fed at number 4,5 or 6, but not because of this argument !
From the tournaments Fed will not play in 2013 that he played in 2012, he got only 45 points from Miami and 300 from Basel ! Doha was not-countable.
And if he doesn't play Basel, he will play Paris instead !
And Miami is not a good tournament for him at all.
Some have created that other "vulture" nonsense that Fed got a lot of points because of playing many tournaments in 2012 ... it's not true at all ! he played more matches than previous years, that
is true, but ... only because he won more matches !
For the vulture-theorists who made a big deal of Fed playing Rotterdam and Dubai, Fed still has Rotterdam and Dubai in his calendar in 2013
(he also had Dubai in previous years but just several times could not play because of illness, which is not good either). And Halle as well.
I'm always astonished about the convincing power of that vulture theory
Very few people in this forum look at rankings more than me, and I know how stupid this is ... except for players who play challengers.